Isolated Thunderstorms Today
Daytime showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: A BROAD PATTERN OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOCUSED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEST WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
EAST:
A low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes region is generating widespread rain and thunderstorms from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and into the Northeast during the first day of the forecast. A cold front extending from this low is pushing eastward, with rain and thunderstorm coverage extending from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and along the eastern Gulf Coast. Rain is also occurring along portions of the Southeast coast. As the low tracks eastward through Friday and into Saturday, rain and thunderstorm activity will continue to be widespread across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic. A low pressure center is expected to be positioned near the Northeast by Saturday, keeping rain and thunderstorm coverage extensive across New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the Ohio Valley. By Sunday, a high pressure system building into the Great Lakes region will begin to push the precipitation focus eastward, with rain and thunderstorms becoming more confined to the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A cold front will extend offshore by Sunday, with lingering thunderstorm activity along the Southeast coast. Into Monday, a low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic coast will maintain a cold front that keeps rain and thunderstorm activity focused along and near the immediate East Coast, with the interior East becoming drier under high pressure influence.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across much of the East during the first couple of days, with modest above-normal anomalies noted across portions of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic. The Northeast sees near-normal to slightly below-normal readings by Day 2.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures across the East will trend toward near-normal conditions, with only isolated above-normal anomalies remaining across portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Most of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be near normal.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the East will be largely near normal through the end of the forecast period, with only isolated and minor departures from normal expected.
CENTRAL:
Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the central United States during the first day of the forecast, with a broad area of coverage extending from the northern Plains southward through the Midwest and into the central and southern Plains. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of Texas, where a separate area of heavy rain and flash flooding concern is also highlighted. Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains and Midwest. A low pressure system over the northern Plains is driving much of this activity, with a cold front extending southward into the central Plains. By Friday, thunderstorm coverage will remain widespread across the Midwest, central Plains, and into the southern Plains, with heavy rain and flash flooding remaining a concern across portions of Texas. As the weekend approaches, the frontal boundary shifts eastward and thunderstorm activity across the central region begins to diminish, though scattered rain and thunderstorm chances will persist across portions of the northern Plains and Midwest through Saturday. By Sunday and Monday, the central region will see a gradual decrease in precipitation coverage as high pressure builds in from the south and west, though isolated thunderstorm chances will remain across portions of the northern Plains and western Great Lakes.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: A notable cold anomaly will be in place across Texas and portions of the southern Plains, with temperatures running several degrees below normal. Meanwhile, the northern Plains and portions of the Midwest will see above-normal temperatures during this period.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures across Texas and the southern Plains will gradually moderate, though some cooler-than-normal readings may linger. The northern Plains and Midwest will trend toward near-normal conditions.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the central region will trend toward near-normal to slightly below-normal conditions across portions of the central Plains and Midwest, particularly by Days 8 and 9. Much of the rest of the central region will be near normal.
WEST:
Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest, and portions of the Great Basin during the first day of the forecast, with multiple low pressure systems driving active weather across the region. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across Arizona and the surrounding desert Southwest, where a well-defined area of heavy rain and flash flooding concern is highlighted. This heavy rain threat across the Southwest will persist into Friday, with the flash flooding concern remaining elevated across Arizona and into portions of New Mexico. The Pacific Northwest will also see rain activity during the first couple of days, with a low pressure system positioned near the Washington and Oregon coast. By Saturday and Sunday, rain and thunderstorm coverage across the Intermountain West will gradually decrease, though isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will persist across portions of the region. A low pressure system near the California-Nevada border area on Sunday will maintain some precipitation chances across the Southwest. By Monday, a low pressure system over the Great Basin will keep some rain and thunderstorm chances across portions of the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above-normal temperatures will be prominent across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with some areas running more than 6 to locally 12 degrees above normal, particularly across Washington, northern Idaho, and western Montana. Portions of California will also see above-normal readings. The remainder of the West will be near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin through Days 4 through 6, with the warmest anomalies remaining focused across Washington, Oregon, and northern Idaho into Montana. The rest of the West will be near normal.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will continue to be focused across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the end of the forecast period, with the anomalies gradually becoming more confined to that region. Portions of California will also see above-normal readings. Most of the remainder of the West will trend toward near-normal conditions.
TROPICAL:
Tropical Storm Elida is currently located over 600 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California with max sustained winds up to 50 knots. No impacts to the contiguous US are anticipated with this storm. Further west in the Central Pacific, a disturbance southwest of Hawaii carries a medium chance of development over the next seven days.
In the Atlantic basin, a disturbance is being monitored near the Southeast U.S. coast and the western Atlantic, with a low chance of development over the next seven days. Additionally, a disturbance in the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the African coast has been noted with a low chance of development over the next seven days.