Well Above Seasonal for Most

GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING DAYS. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY, WITH THAT THREAT SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A BROAD SWATH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD.

EAST:

Today, a low pressure system centered near the Ohio Valley is producing rain and thunderstorms across a broad area encompassing the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorm activity is widespread across the region, with rain extending from the eastern Great Lakes southward through the Appalachians and into the Southeast and coastal areas. A warm front extending from the Ohio Valley low toward the Mid-Atlantic is helping to focus precipitation across the region. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and into the lower Tennessee Valley today, where the heaviest rainfall is concentrated. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across this same area.

By Thursday, the low pressure system will have shifted, and a cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region southward toward the Gulf Coast. Rain and thunderstorm coverage will continue across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The heavy rain and flash flooding threat will shift to focus on portions of Kansas, Missouri, and into Kentucky, with severe thunderstorms also possible across that corridor. Rain will continue across the Southeast and along the Atlantic Coast.

Through the weekend, a cold front will continue to push eastward, maintaining rain and thunderstorm chances across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Southeast. By Saturday, the front will be positioned well to the south and east, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing along and ahead of it across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the Mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, a high pressure system will be building over the eastern United States, helping to limit precipitation across much of the region, though rain and thunderstorms will persist along the Southeast coast and Florida.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal across much of the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, with below-normal readings also noted across portions of the Great Lakes. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be near normal to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures will trend closer to normal across most of the East, with slightly above-normal readings developing across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic by Days 4-5. By Day 6, above-normal temperatures will become more widespread across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast.
-Days 7-10: A pronounced warm pattern will develop across the East, with temperatures running above normal from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This above-normal temperature signal will persist and expand through the end of the forecast period.

CENTRAL:

Today, a complex area of low pressure is driving significant weather across the central United States. Heavy rain and flash flooding are occurring across portions of Kansas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and into the lower Missouri Valley, with the heaviest threat focused on Arkansas and Mississippi. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across a broad area from Kansas southward through Oklahoma and into Arkansas and Mississippi. Rain and thunderstorm activity is widespread across the central and northern Plains, extending northward through the Dakotas and into Minnesota. A cold front extends from a low in the central Plains southwestward, while a warm front extends northeastward, helping to organize the precipitation pattern.

By Thursday, the severe thunderstorm and heavy rain/flash flooding threat will shift to focus on Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, with severe thunderstorms possible across that corridor. Rain and thunderstorm activity will continue across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend from the central Plains northeastward, while a cold front will push through the Rockies.

Through the weekend, a cold front will sweep through the central United States, pushing precipitation eastward. By Saturday, rain and thunderstorm activity will be confined mainly to the eastern portions of the region, with drier conditions building across the Plains behind the front. A low pressure system will linger over the southern Plains into Sunday, with some thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. By Sunday, a cold front will be pushing through the central Plains, with rain and thunderstorm activity along and ahead of it.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be notably below normal across the northern and central Plains, including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, and into portions of Colorado and Minnesota, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal in some areas. The southern Plains will be near normal.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures will persist across portions of the central Plains, particularly Kansas and Nebraska, on Day 4, before moderating closer to normal by Days 5-6. The southern Plains, including portions of New Mexico and Texas, will trend above normal during this period.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the central region will trend toward near normal to slightly above normal, with above-normal readings developing across portions of the central and southern Plains by the end of the period.

WEST:

Today, an active pattern is in place across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, with multiple low pressure systems driving rain and thunderstorm activity across the region. Rain is occurring across the Pacific Northwest, with thunderstorm activity extending through portions of the northern Rockies and into the northern Great Basin. A cold front extends from a low in the northern Rockies southwestward, helping to focus precipitation. High pressure is centered over the Great Basin, keeping portions of the Southwest relatively dry, though some rain is noted across the higher terrain of the Southwest.

By Thursday, the cold front will push through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The Southwest will remain relatively dry, with high pressure dominating. A warm front will extend from the low in the northern Rockies southeastward into the central Plains.

Through the weekend, the Pacific Northwest will continue to see rain and thunderstorm activity as additional frontal systems move through. By Saturday, a cold front will extend from a low in the northern Rockies southwestward to the Pacific Coast, with rain and thunderstorm activity along and ahead of it across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. By Sunday, rain will continue across the Pacific Northwest. The Southwest will remain relatively dry through the period.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be above normal across much of the West, particularly across the Pacific Coast states, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, with anomalies of 3 to 9 degrees above normal. The Pacific Northwest coast will see the most pronounced above-normal readings. In contrast, portions of the northern and central Rockies, including Montana and Wyoming, will be below normal.
-Days 4-6: A significant shift will occur, with below-normal temperatures spreading across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern and central Rockies and Great Basin by Days 5-6. Anomalies will be 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. The Southwest will trend above normal during this period.
-Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures will persist across the Intermountain West, northern Rockies, and into the Great Basin, with the core of the cold anomaly centered over the northern Rockies and Wyoming. The Pacific Coast will trend toward near normal conditions by the end of the period.

TROPICAL:

No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, a disturbance is being monitored well southwest of the Mexican coast, with a 40 to 60 percent chance of development into a named storm over the next seven days. No impacts to the contiguous US are anticipated.