06/12/2026

Note: Futures and options are typically not good hedging tools for the cattle market. For hedging purposes in your state, check Livestock Risk Protection coverage and quotes at https://public.rma.usda.gov/livestockreports/LRPReport.aspx.

POSITIONS

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CURRENT ASSESSMENT

All in all, it was a mixed week for the live cattle complex, as the market traded along both sides of steady, never able to gain enough momentum to break through the market’s resistance at its 40-day moving average. At the time of this only some live cash cattle trade had developed in Texas and Nebraska at $255 — which is about $1.00 lower than the previous week’s weighted average. But at this point no dressed cattle trade has developed. August live cattle is a type 3 — neutral market.

DAILY NOTE

August live cattle closed $1.50 lower at $241.17 as traders simply were not willing to advance the contract beyond its 40-day moving average as traders weren’t confident that there was enough support in the market to do so. Friday’s slaughter is estimated at 95,000 head — 5,000 head less than both a week and year ago.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

There have been no hedge recommendations yet in 2025 and none are expected anytime soon, as long as cattle supplies remain tight.

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.  

TREND: The trend in August live cattle is steady.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders held a net long futures position of 82,486 contracts in live cattle complex for the week ending June 10th, a decrease of 3,036 contracts as traders weren’t willing to challenge the market’s resistance without improved fundamental support.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: On the futures board, commercials remain moderately short in live cattle as of June 10th likely hedged positions. At the time of this writing only a few sales have been noted in the live market — but cattle were bought $1.00 lower than last week’s weighted average, which pleased packers.

SEASONAL INDEX: Cash cattle prices tend to peak in March and bottom in October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active futures contract (August) remained steady at the 89th percentile as the contracts didn’t feel overly supported by the market’s fundamentals this past week.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for August live cattle fell one point to the 4th percentile as the futures market remains at a historically high price point.