09/01/2026

Note: Futures and options are typically not good hedging tools for the cattle market. For hedging purposes in your state, check Livestock Risk Protection coverage and quotes at https://public.rma.usda.gov/livestockreports/LRPReport.aspx .

POSITIONS

2022: Sold short December cattle on September 26, 2022 for 25% of Nov/Dec marketings. Dec cattle were at $146.80 at the time of the recommendation.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

It was another disappointing week for the live cattle complex as the futures market drifted lower without enough fundamental support arising in the marketplace to help stabilize the contracts. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at $222 which is $3.00 lower than last week’s weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $345 which is $10.00 lower than the previous week’s weighted average. October live cattle is a type four, somewhat bearish market.

DAILY NOTE

October live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $212.07 as traders continue to remain on edge about the market’s future, and remain concerned that there isn’t enough immediate fundamental support in the market to justify trading the contracts higher. Southern cattle are priced at $225, no cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. Tuesday’s slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head — 1,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.

RECOMMENDATIONS

There have been no hedge recommendations yet in 2026 and none are expected anytime soon, as long as cattle supplies remain tight.

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.

TREND: The trend in October live cattle is lower.  

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders held a net long futures position of 35,846 contracts in live cattle complex for the week ending August 25th, a decrease of 3,738 contracts as traders continue to be extremely cautious of the complex and recognize the volatility that comes with cycle high prices, and question where the market is headed next.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: On the futures board, commercials remain moderately short in live cattle as of Aug. 25 likely hedged positions. Again, this past week packers were able to buy cattle for cheaper money, helping strengthen their long-term position for the weeks ahead.

SEASONAL INDEX: Cash cattle prices tend to peak in March and bottom in October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active futures contract (October) fell five points to the 66th percentile as traders are concerned about the seasonal decline and volatility that lingers. This is the lowest price probability point that the market has traded at since 2021.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for October live cattle gained one point to now sit at the 10th percentile as the futures market remains at a historically high price point.