07/17/2026

New Recommendations: The latest recommendation was posted on May 19, 2026. See Detailed Positions below.

DAILY NOTE:

September corn futures traded 3 1/4 cents higher on Friday, closing at $4.44 3/4. December futures were up 3 1/2 cents to $4.67 1/2. The corn market rallied from early lows on Friday, managing to hold above weekly lows in a positive technical sign. Bullish influence from the wheat market, as well as further cuts to France’s corn crop ratings supported corn prices into the weekend. The trend in corn futures is sideways for now.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT:

The trend in corn futures is sideways for now. Corn prices have rallied steadily from late June lows, with growing conditions across the U.S. becoming more concerning amid a hot and dry spell in mid-July. However, prices remain well below May highs. In Europe, a historic heatwave through June and July has sharply reduced production optimism for the upcoming 2026 crop as well. Meanwhile, near-term supplies remain comfortable with record output during the 2025-26 cycle from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina — the top three exporters of corn in the world. Looking ahead, with Ukraine potentially facing logistical challenges to exporting corn in the upcoming season, the U.S. may be in a strong position to be a key supplier to the E.U. Look for price direction moving forward to be heavily influenced by weather over the remainder of the U.S. growing season. For now, the corn market is a neutral, Type 3 market.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

*NOTE REGARDING 2025-26 CROP SALES*: In December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with corn producers receiving $44.36 per planted acre, or approximately $0.26 per bushel based on the 2025 national average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per harvested acre, and 92% national average for harvested area.

Summary:

2025-26: 100% sold on 2025 corn production at an average price of $4.08.

2026-27: 50% sold in cash market at an average hedged price of $4.88 December futures. 50% of 2026 production unsold/unhedged.

Detailed Positions:

2025-26:

On May 19, 2026, sold the final 25% of old crop corn with the DTN National Cash Index near $4.36. Unwound previous put/call spread for a net cost of 3 cents. Net cash for the sale is $4.33. 2025 corn production is now 100% sold.

On April 30, 2026, sold 25% of the remaining old crop 2025 corn production, with the DTN National Cash Index near $4.28. Unwound previous put/call hedge on that portion of grain. 25% of 2025 corn production remains unsold in cash but is hedged by the remaining puts and calls.

2025-26: On March 20, 2026, hedged the remaining 50% of old crop 2025 corn production by buying July 2026 $4.70 puts and selling July 2026 $5.25 calls for a net cost of near 10 cents. 100% of 2025 corn production is hedged, while 50% remains unsold in the cash market.

2025-26: On March 4, 2026, sold 10% of 2025 corn production with May futures near $4.42 and the DTN National Corn Index likely near $4.03.

2025-26: 2025-26: Placed an order to sell the next 20% of 2025 corn production in cash for fall delivery when December futures hit $4.30. Simultaneously, placed an order to sell the remaining $4.20 December puts for 4 cents. Upon fills, net cash price should be near to $3.83 after previous option premiums are taken into account. FILLED ON 10/27. 60% of 2025-26 corn production unsold.

2025-26: Sold 20% of 2025 corn production in cash for harvest delivery on September 17, 2025, with December corn futures trading near $4.30, and the DTN National Corn Index near $3.88. Simultaneously unwind previous put/call hedge, sell $4.20 Dec puts near 8 1/2 cents and buy $4.75 Dec calls near 2 cents, for a net cost of 5 cents for the hedge. Leave put/call protection in place on 30% of production for now. Net cash for the sale should be near to $3.83.

2025-26: Hedged 50% of 2025-26 corn production on June 30, 2025 with a custom min/max strategy. Bought $4.20 Dec 2025 corn puts near 20 cents and sold $4.75 Dec 2025 corn calls near 8 1/2 cents for a net cost of near 11 1/2 cents.

2026-27:

2026-27: On May 19, 2026, forward sold another 15% of new crop 2026 corn production for harvest delivery with December 2026 futures near $4.96. 50% of 2026 corn production remains unsold/unhedged at this time.

On April 30, 2026, forward sold another 10% of new crop 2026 corn production with December 2026 futures near $4.93. 65% of 2026 corn remains unsold and unhedged at this point.

2026-27: On March 20, 2026, forward sold another 15% of new crop 2026 corn production with December 2026 futures near $4.91. 75% of new crop 2026 corn remains unsold/unhedged at this point.

2026-27: On March 4, 2026, sold the first 10% of 2026 corn production with December 2026 corn futures near $4.68. 90% of 2026 corn is unsold at this point. 

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.

TREND: The trend in most active corn futures is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 131,463 contracts as of July 14, and were net-buyers of 30,483 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders returned to buying with conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt turning hot and dry through mid-July.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 94,976 contracts as of July 14, and were net-sellers of 27,322 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The September 2026 contract is priced 22 1/2 cents lower than the December 2026 contract, falling through the week to the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives, and a sign of comfortable old crop supplies. National average corn basis held steady through the past week at 29 cents under the September board, still the third weakest of the past decade for early July.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (December) corn futures contract finished the most recent week at the 19th percentile, still a relatively inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (December) corn contract held at 9% after prices again traded marginally higher for the fifth straight week, but still well within the previous three-month range.