09/01/2026

Latest Recommendation: The most recent recommendation was made on July 22, 2026 — see Detailed Positions below.

Daily Note

November canola futures traded C$28.70 higher on Tuesday to C$841.90. Self-praise is never a good thing, and this is not intended to be that, but there are a few examples today of concepts I often refer to that are too important not to highlight. With grain and oilseeds sharply higher on the same news that the market has been working with for some time, the influence of a month change cannot be dismissed. Profit-taking was seen going into the end of August, with September starting off with a bang as those that booked profits want to re-establish positions and those that want (or need) to buy but had held off so they didn’t have an open position on the books at month-end, also eagerly buy now. The other concept playing out is the nature of trading within a commercial bull market compared to a run-of-the-mill one. Corrections tend to be shallow, and rallies tend to be aggressive when those that actually use a commodity are concerned about future availability. It should be safe to say that with the European drought kicking it off (in the case of corn), followed by damage to the U.S. corn crop with concerns increasing over a super El Nino impacting South American corn production in the months to come –- all at a time when Ukraine and Russian corn is not readily available to global importers due to shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region — that commercials are very likely concerned. And the price action shows it. The same can be said for canola and soybean oil thanks to the dramatic increase in demand from the biofuel sector. The trend in canola futures remains higher for now.

Current Assessment 

The trend in canola futures remains higher for now, as prices have steadily climbed through 2026 thus far, recently hitting highs not seen since mid-2023. Canola has traded higher on strong bullish outside energy influence due to the war in the Middle East, with bullish influence also stemming from soybean oil futures due to the U.S. EPA finalizing very agriculture friendly biofuel blending mandates in March. Canadian canola production was a record in 2025, and 2026 production prospects have increased over a generally very good growing season in western Canada. However, demand also remains exceptional, with old crop 2025-26 exports and domestic usage significantly increased in the most recent AAFC update — with ending stocks expected to decline through the 2026-27 crop year. Across the globe, ABARES (Australia) forecasted a 20% year over year decline in canola production in 2026, citing lower area amid high energy costs. November canola is currently a moderately bullish, type 2 market. 

Marketing Recommendations:

Summary:

2025-26: 80% sold on 2025 canola production at an average futures price of C$765 per ton.

2026-27: Unsold/unhedged on 100% of upcoming 2026 canola production.

Detailed Positions:

2025-26:

On July 22, 2026, sold 20% of 2025 canola production for immediate shipment with November 2026 canola futures trading near C$815 per mt. 20% of 2025 canola production remains unsold at this time.

On July 8, 2026, sold 20% of 2025 canola production for immediate shipment with November 2026 canola trading near C$776 per mt. 40% of 2025 canola remains unsold at this time.

On March 6, 2026, sold 20% of 2025 canola production with May canola trading near $730 per mt. 60% of 2025 canola production remains unsold at this time.

On June 17, 2025, made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold. 

Historical Recap:

2024-25: 100% sold on 2024 canola production with an average sale of C$694.

Detailed Sales:

On February 18, 2026, made a sale of the final 25% of 2024 canola production for immediate delivery with May canola trading near C$680 per mt.

On June 17, 2025, made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 

On April 22, 2025, made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production when July canola was near C$673.00.

On May 31, 2025, made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production when November canola was near C$678.00. 

2023-24: Average sale price of C$626.35 versus marketing year average price of C$669.

2022-23: Average sale price of C$811.18 versus marketing year average price of C$798.40

**

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made. 

TREND: The trend for November canola is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK:

Noncommercial traders were net-long 80,910 contracts of canola as of August 25, and were net-sellers of 4,960 contracts through the CFTC reporting period as the market turned briefly lower on concerns over small refinery exemption rulings which are set to be announced by the EPA by the end of August.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK:

Commercial traders held a net-short position of 80,208 contracts of canola as of August 25 and were net-buyers of 5,154 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. November 2026 canola is currently priced C$9.50 below the January 2027 futures contract, weakening (more carry) through the most recent week and back to among the highest degree of carry between the contracts through 2026.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY:

The price of front month (November) canola ended the most recent week at the 42nd percentile, rising 4 points through the week but still within the lower half of observed prices within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY:

The three-month price volatility for front month (November) canola rose to 8% in the most recent week as prices traded higher after holding chart support at the three-month moving average ($778.80). Most active futures were higher for the third time in the past four weeks.