Above Normal Again Today
Temperatures will be 3-12 degrees above normal for most locations, with the warmest across the Pacific Northwest.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: A BROADLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND PARTS OF THE EAST, WHILE TEXAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. THE WEST WILL SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAST:
Thunderstorms are widespread across much of the eastern United States on Wednesday, with rain/thunderstorm coverage extending from the Great Lakes southward through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the Southeast and Florida. A low pressure system is situated near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front extending southward and a warm front pushing offshore. Rain is also occurring across portions of the Northeast, including New England. By Thursday evening, thunderstorm activity continues across the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with a high pressure center settling into the Mid-Atlantic. Rain is noted across the upper Great Lakes and into portions of the Northeast. A cold front is draped across the region, with a low pressure center near the New England coast. Moving into Friday and Saturday, a low pressure system develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front pushing through the region and a warm front extending offshore. Thunderstorms and rain continue across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, a cold front sweeps through the Northeast, with rain coverage extending across the Great Lakes, New England, and the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms continue across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be notably above normal across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal in some areas. The Southeast and southern portions of the East are generally near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic, though anomalies gradually moderate. Much of the Southeast remains near normal.
-Days 7-10: Temperature anomalies across the East diminish considerably, with most areas trending toward near-normal conditions. Only isolated pockets of slight above-normal readings are indicated.
CENTRAL:
Thunderstorms are widespread across the central United States on Wednesday, with rain and thunderstorm activity covering much of the Plains, Midwest, and extending into the western Gulf Coast region. A notable heavy rain and flash flooding threat is highlighted across portions of central and southern Texas, where a low pressure system is situated and moisture is focused. A low pressure center is also present over the central Plains. By Thursday, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts and remains focused across portions of Texas, while thunderstorm coverage expands broadly across the central and northern Plains, the Midwest, and into the western Great Lakes. A high pressure center is positioned over the central Plains. Through Friday and Saturday, thunderstorm activity continues across portions of the central Plains and Midwest, though coverage becomes more scattered. By Sunday, precipitation coverage across the central region diminishes, with only isolated thunderstorm activity noted across portions of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across Texas and into portions of Oklahoma and surrounding areas will be well below normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal. The northern Plains and Midwest are running above normal, with anomalies generally in the 3 to 6 degree range.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across Texas and portions of the southern Plains, though anomalies gradually moderate. Above-normal readings continue across the northern Plains and into the Midwest, particularly over Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal across Texas and the southern Plains weakens considerably, with most of the central region trending toward near-normal conditions. Isolated above-normal anomalies are noted over portions of the central Plains and Missouri Valley early in this period but diminish by the end.
WEST:
Thunderstorms and rain/thunderstorm activity are widespread across much of the western United States on Wednesday, with multiple low pressure systems positioned across the region — including over Washington state, the Great Basin, southern California, and the Desert Southwest. A heavy rain and flash flooding threat is highlighted across Arizona and portions of New Mexico, consistent with active monsoon moisture. This heavy rain threat continues into Thursday, with the flash flooding concern remaining focused over Arizona and extending into portions of New Mexico. Thunderstorm coverage remains broad across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest through Thursday. By Friday and Saturday, thunderstorm and rain activity continues across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and the Desert Southwest, though coverage becomes more isolated. A low pressure system is noted near the Southern California coast on Saturday. By Sunday, precipitation coverage across the West diminishes, with only scattered rain noted across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and isolated areas of the Southwest.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern Rockies are running above normal, with anomalies generally in the 3 to 6 degree range. Portions of California and the Great Basin are also slightly above normal. The Desert Southwest is near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures become more focused across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 or more degrees above normal in some areas. The remainder of the West is generally near normal, with only isolated pockets of slight above-normal readings across the Great Basin and California.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures remain anchored across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12 degrees above normal. The rest of the West trends toward near-normal conditions, with only scattered areas of slight above-normal readings across California and the Great Basin.
TROPICAL:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Five-E is currently located well offshore of the Mexican Pacific coast and is situated within an area of greater than 60 percent development potential over the next seven days. Additionally, two disturbances are being monitored in the central and north-central Pacific, to the southwest and south of Hawaii. One of these disturbances carries a 40 to 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days, while the other has a less than 40 percent chance of development. These systems are currently far from land and will be monitored for any changes in organization and track.