Above Average Temperatures For Most
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal today, but near normal for areas with rain.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST EARLY THIS WEEK. A NOTABLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 1 AND SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY DAY 2. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE, WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY BY DAYS 7-10.
EAST:
Today, rain and thunderstorms are ongoing across a broad area encompassing the Tennessee Valley, the Southeast, and the eastern Gulf Coast states. A significant threat of heavy rain and flash flooding is present across portions of the Carolinas, where a surface low is positioned. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. Rain and thunderstorms extend northward through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes region as well. A stationary front draped across the region is helping to focus precipitation activity. By tomorrow, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts westward toward the central Gulf Coast, particularly across Louisiana and the adjacent coastal areas, as a surface low tracks into that region. Rain and thunderstorms continue across the Southeast, the Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The broader area of rain and thunderstorm activity remains expansive across the eastern Gulf Coast states and into the Southeast through this period.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the eastern Great Lakes and into portions of the Northeast are running notably above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average in some areas. The Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast are generally near normal. By Day 3, a slight below-normal signal emerges across portions of the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures become more pronounced across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast, with anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees or more above normal in the Great Lakes region. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend toward near normal. A modest below-normal signal is noted across portions of the Mid-South on Day 5.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperature signals across the East diminish considerably, with most of the region trending toward near-normal conditions by the end of the forecast period.
CENTRAL:
Today, rain and thunderstorms are present across portions of the central and southern Plains, extending into the Midwest and the upper Mississippi Valley. A stationary front across the southern Plains is helping to focus shower and thunderstorm activity. Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains and into the Midwest. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northern Montana, where dry and windy conditions are expected. By tomorrow, rain and thunderstorm coverage expands across the central and southern Plains, with the heavy rain and flash flooding threat developing along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana eastward. The frontal boundary remains draped across the southern Plains, continuing to support shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the northern Plains and into the Dakotas are running well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average, particularly across northern North Dakota. A small area of below-normal temperatures is noted across portions of central Kansas and western Oklahoma on Days 2 and 3. The central and southern Plains are otherwise near normal.
-Days 4-6: A notable below-normal temperature signal develops across the southern Plains, particularly across New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, with anomalies of 4 to 8 degrees below normal. This below-normal signal persists and remains focused on the southern Plains through Day 6. The northern Plains and upper Midwest maintain a modest above-normal signal.
-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal across the southern Plains gradually weakens and contracts, with temperatures trending back toward near normal across much of the central region by Days 8-10. The northern Plains and Midwest trend toward near-normal conditions as well.
WEST:
Today, rain and thunderstorms are present across a broad area of the Intermountain West, including portions of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico, associated with the summer monsoon pattern and several surface low pressure areas across the region. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northern Idaho and northwestern Montana, where dry and gusty winds are expected in association with a surface low and frontal boundary. Tomorrow, rain and thunderstorm coverage across the West expands significantly, with showers and thunderstorms extending from the Pacific Northwest southward through the Intermountain West and into the Desert Southwest. Multiple surface low pressure areas are positioned across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and the Great Basin, supporting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Intermountain West, northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin are running above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average across portions of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming. The Pacific Northwest is near normal to slightly above normal. The Desert Southwest is near normal to slightly above normal as well.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, though the anomalies moderate somewhat. The Great Basin and Desert Southwest trend toward near-normal conditions. Isolated above-normal signals remain across portions of California and Nevada.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperature signals across the West become increasingly confined to the Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho/western Montana corridor. Much of the Great Basin, Desert Southwest, and California trend toward near-normal or only slightly above-normal conditions by the end of the forecast period.
TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, three disturbances are being monitored. The disturbance located in the eastern Pacific closest to the Mexican coast carries a greater than 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days and warrants the closest attention. A second disturbance located in the central Pacific near 130°W longitude carries a low chance of development of less than 40 percent. A third disturbance located farther west in the central Pacific near 160°W also carries a low chance of development of less than 40 percent. None of these systems are currently expected to impact the contiguous US.