USDA WASDE Highlights 05/12
05/12/2026 | 10:59 am CDT USDA WASDE Highlights 05/12
USDA WASDE Highlights 05/12 WASDE - 671 WHEAT: The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, lower domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2025/26. Wheat supplies are forecast down from last year with reduced production more than offsetting larger beginning stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year on reduced harvested area and yield. The all-wheat yield, projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, is 5.8 bushels lower than last year’s record yield. The first survey-based production forecast for 2026/27 winter wheat is down 25 percent from last year to 1,048 million bushels, primarily on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production. Total U.S. 2026/27 domestic use is lower on reduced feed and residual use reflecting smaller supplies while food use is unchanged from 2025/26 at 960 million bushels. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels on reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices, down 135 million from revised 2025/26 exports. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks are 18 percent lower than last year at 762 million bushels. The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price is $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and a higher projected U.S. corn price. The global outlook for 2026/27 is for lower supplies, marginally lower consumption, reduced trade, and decreased ending stocks compared with 2025/26. Global production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million. A large share of the lower production is from all the major wheat exporting countries. The largest reductions are for the United States, the EU, Argentina, and Australia. Projected 2026/27 world consumption is slightly lower at 823.2 million tons on less feed and residual use, mostly on reduced production for most of the leading global wheat producers. World food, seed, and industrial use is higher with India having the largest increase on continued population growth and ample domestic wheat supplies used in the government’s Public Distribution System. Global trade is projected at 211.7 million tons, a decline of 12.0 million from 2025/26 primarily on reduced import demand from the North Africa and Middle East regions on significant production increases for several countries. Russia remains the largest exporter followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, and the United States. Projected ending stocks for 2026/27 are down 4.2 million tons from 2025/26 to 275.0 million with the largest reduction for the United States. COARSE GRAINS: The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to supply, total use, and ending stocks with higher expected prices. The corn crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent from a year ago on declines to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be down 3.5 million. The yield projection of 183.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2 percent to 18.1 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast to fall 2 percent relative to a year ago on reductions to domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast flat at 7.0 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected down to 6.1 billion bushels on smaller supplies and higher prices. U.S. corn exports for 2026/27 are forecast to decline 5 percent from a year ago to 3.2 billion bushels. U.S. share of world trade is expected to decline modestly but remain above the average seen over the past several years. In absolute terms the U.S. remains the largest exporter of corn by a wide margin despite higher exports from competitor countries such as Brazil and Ukraine. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2026/27 ending stocks are down 185 million bushels from last year. Stocks would represent 12.1 percent of use, down from 13.0 percent the prior year but above the average of the last 5 years. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents. World corn production for 2026/27 is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.295 billion metric tons, down 17.3 million tons from the prior year but still the second highest on record. The largest reductions in production are for the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for China, Brazil, Serbia, Kenya, and Russia. Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina. For China and Brazil, expansion in corn area and trend yield growth drive larger crop prospects. World barley, sorghum, and millet are forecast higher than a year ago, while oats, rye, and mixed grain production are down. World corn consumption is expected to rise less than 1 percent to a record 1.315 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production by 19.4 million tons, following the modest surplus seen a year ago. The largest absolute increases in foreign consumption are projected for China, Brazil, Vietnam, India, and Mexico. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1 percent, driven by increases for several countries including Vietnam, EU, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are declines for Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Zimbabwe. Global corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are down 19.4 million tons to 277.5 million which, if realized, would be the lowest since 2013/14. Corn ending stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to decline, mostly reflecting a reduction for the United States and modest reductions for all the others. RICE: The U.S. rice outlook for 2026/27 projects lower supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks compared with 2025/26. All rice production is projected at 175.2 million cwt, down 15 percent from last year on lower harvested area. The projected all rice yield is 7,732 pounds per acre, up 188 pounds from 2025/26. Total rice supplies are 275.3 million cwt, down 10 percent from last year on lower production. Total domestic and residual use is projected at 154.0 million cwt on reduced supplies. Total exports are projected at 79.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the revised exports for 2025/26, on continued strong global competition and higher U.S. long-grain prices. All rice ending stocks are projected at 42.3 million cwt, down 18 percent from last year. The 2026/27 season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice is projected at $13.50 per cwt, up from $12.10 in 2025/26, on a higher long-grain SAFP. The global rice outlook for 2026/27 is for larger supplies, greater trade, increased consumption, and lower ending stocks compared to 2025/26. World rice production is forecast down 5.0 million tons to 537.8 million tons, the first decrease since 2015/16. The largest production declines are for India, Burma, and the United States. Global consumption is projected 3.8 million tons higher to a record 541.4 million, on higher use by several countries. India’s use is forecast 4.0 million tons higher at a record 128.0 million on population growth and continued distributions from the government’s Public Distribution System. Conversely, China’s use is forecast 2.1 million tons lower to 145.1 million on a declining population and changing consumer preferences. Global trade is forecast increasing 2.7 million tons to a record 63.0 million. India remains the leading exporter at 25.0 million tons. India, with ample supplies and competitively priced exports, is expected to limit export growth by other major Asia rice exporters. Global ending stocks are projected at 192.7 million tons, down 3.6 million, largely on reduced stocks for India. OILSEEDS: The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks from the prior marketing year. The soybean crop is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million from last year’s crop, reflecting trend yield and higher harvested area. Along with higher beginning stocks, supplies are 188 million bushels above the 2025/26 marketing year. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 130.4 million tons, up 4.2 million, as higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed output is partly offset by lower peanut and cottonseed production. U.S. soybean crush for 2026/27 is projected at 2.750 billion bushels, up 120 million from the 2025/26 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 1 percent while exports are forecast at 21.7 million short tons, indicating a 22 percent share of global trade, compared to the prior 5-year average of 20 percent. Total U.S. soybean oil demand is forecast to increase 7 percent in 2026/27, with higher domestic use partly offset by lower exports. Strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, supported by EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027, lifts soybean oil use for biofuel to 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion from 2025/26. In contrast, soybean oil exports are expected to fall as expanded domestic demand limits the volume available for foreign markets. Soybean oil ending stocks are expected to rise slightly; however, the stocks-to-use ratio is lower than the prior year. U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise to 1.630 billion bushels, an increase over 2025/26 when tariff measures curtailed shipments to China, the United States’ largest export market. Although U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise in 2026/27, the U.S. share of global trade is likely to continue its longer‑term downward trajectory as large South American supplies, coupled with strong U.S. demand, limit export growth. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million from the revised 2025/26 forecast. The 2026/27 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel, compared with $10.40 in 2025/26. The soybean meal price is forecast at $310 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price is forecast at 70 cents per pound, up 7 cents. The global 2026/27 oilseed outlook shows higher production, crush, and ending stocks compared to the prior marketing year. Global production is forecast to increase 19.6 million tons to 718.1 million. Higher soybean production is most of the increase, rising near 14.0 million tons, mainly for Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. Sunflowerseed production is set to increase 7.0 million tons, mainly for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Argentina. While rapeseed area is growing 4 percent, global production is only growing 1 percent (1.4 million tons), as major producers, like Canada and the EU, return to trend yields after last year’s highs. Combined global oilseed crush for major oilseeds – soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed – is projected to increase by 4 percent in 2026/27 on higher product demand. Most of this growth comes from higher soybean crush for the United States, Brazil, China, and Argentina; sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Argentina; and expanding canola crush in Canada. Global meal exports are also rising, especially soybean meal from Brazil and the United States, and sunflowerseed meal from Russia and Ukraine. Global exports of major vegetable oils – palm, sunflowerseed, soybean, and rapeseed – are expected to increase 4 percent, with sunflowerseed oil showing the strongest growth in 2026/27. Palm oil remains the world’s most traded vegetable oil, accounting for about 50 percent of global trade, though its share has declined from 60 percent a decade ago. Palm oil exports are expected to decline slightly, as increased Indonesian shipments are offset by lower exports for Malaysia. In contrast, exports of other vegetable oils are projected to expand, particularly sunflowerseed oil for Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey, and canola oil exports for Canada. Global soybean exports for 2026/27—which make up over 85 percent of all oilseed trade—are projected to rise by 2.7 million tons from 2025/26. Exports are forecast to rise for the United States and decline slightly for South America, as higher Brazil and Uruguay shipments are offset by lower exports for Argentina and Paraguay. China’s soybean imports are forecast to increase by 2 million tons to 114 million. Imports are also expected to rise for Turkey, Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, Algeria, and Bangladesh, while declining for Argentina, the EU, Russia, and Iran. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast to decline slightly from the prior marketing year on lower U.S. and Brazilian stocks, partly offset by higher stocks for Argentina. SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.722 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Relatively low national planted area from Prospective Plantings is 1.063 million acres. Applying the 10-year average of harvested-planted ratios for sugarbeet-producing States yields harvested area of 1.039 million acres, the lowest level since 2019/20. Less than ideal planting progress extending into early May implies sugarbeet yields at 30.21 tons/acre at the national level, the lowest projected since 2022/23. Beet pile shrink is forecast at 7.063 percent, a 10-year average, and projected recovery from sliced beets is 14.79 percent, also a 10-year average. Sugar from desugared molasses is projected at 375,000 STRV. Sugar produced from imported sugarbeets is 30,000 STRV, close to the value for 2025/26. Cane sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.088 million STRV, a 130,000-STRV reduction from 2025/26. The winter freeze in Florida affected sugarcane planted earlier in the preceding fall for harvest in 2026/27 with a loss of 75 days of growth in those areas. The aggregate effect on yield is uncertain but is here projected to be at only 41.75 tons/acre. Processors will weigh in with their forecast next month. Louisiana production is projected at 2.146 million STRV with a 5,000 acre expansion but a lower yield than the record for crop year 2025/26. TRQ imports for 2026/27 are projected at 1.422 million STRV consistent with minimum access WTO bindings and with allocations set for various FTAs. Re-export imports are projected at 300,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico are at 1.046 million STRV based on U.S. Needs from the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports are projected at zero. High-tier tariff imports of refined sugar and sugar from imported molasses are projected at 492,000 STRV, just below the estimate for 2025/26. Use is carried over from 2025/26 at 12.389 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 1.673 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent. Sugar production for 2025/26 is decreased 28,582 STRV to 9.239 million STRV. Florida processors report a gain of 10,900 over last month as the harvest is very close to being over. Beet sugar is down 39,500 STRV on estimated declines in sugar recovery in the final periods of beet slicing. High-tier raw sugar imports are increased 141,317 STRV and imports from other sources are unchanged. Actual raw imports increased 41,317 STRV since last month and sources indicate that about 100,000 STRV are likely to enter during the remainder of this fiscal year. Use for 2025/26 is unchanged from last month. Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.142 metric tons (MT). While seasonal rains during mid-2025 alleviated the drought conditions experienced during the prior two marketing years, recovery is likely to face constraints from recent rises in global fertilizer prices and other input costs. Area harvested in 2026/27 is projected at 738,000 hectares; cane sugar is forecasted at 48.25 million MT with a field yield of 65.4 MT/ha. Sugar consumption is forecast to decrease by 2 percent due to tax increases. Exports are forecast at 894,788 MT. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2027 is forecast above 2026 production levels as higher pork and poultry production more than offset lower beef production. Beef production is forecast lower, as expected herd rebuilding and increased heifer retention will limit the availability of fed cattle for slaughter. Pork production in 2027 is forecast to increase despite limited growth in expected farrowings as improved sow productivity will support larger pig crops and increased slaughter. Heavier hog carcass weights are also forecast in 2027. Broiler production is forecast above 2026 as producers respond to favorable margins and strong domestic demand. Turkey production is forecast to increase for the second straight year on improving producer returns. Egg production is forecast higher. The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is increased from last month as higher expected pork, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets lower beef production. The beef production forecast is lowered on official data through March and lower-than-expected marketings in the second quarter due to the recent pace of steer and heifer slaughter. Marketings were also lowered in the second half of the year due to the slow pace of placements into feedlots reported in the first quarter and reduced expectations for second-quarter placements. Lower expected cow slaughter also underpins the production decrease. Pork production is raised slightly on higher production in the second half of the year, more than offsetting decreases in the second quarter. The broiler production forecast is increased on official production data reported through March and on recent slaughter and hatchery data indicating higher production for the second and third quarters. The turkey production forecast is also raised. Egg production for 2026 is lowered on reductions to the laying flock based on recent hatchery data. For 2027, beef exports are lowered from 2026 on tighter supplies, but pork exports are raised on increased production and competitive pricing in international markets. Beef imports are lower on expectations of reduced supplies in key exporting countries. Broiler and turkey exports are forecast lower on increased global competition. For 2026, beef exports are reduced slightly to reflect official data through the first quarter. Pork exports are increased in the second half of the year on improved global demand, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. Beef imports are raised on the increased pace seen through the first quarter and strong demand for lean processing beef. Broiler and turkey exports are adjusted slightly, with broiler exports slightly lowered in the second quarter on recent trade data. For 2027, fed cattle prices are forecast above 2026 on expected tightening of cattle supplies. Hog and turkey prices are forecast lower with increased production. Broiler prices are forecast higher on supportive demand. The egg price is forecast higher on improved demand. The 2026 cattle price forecast is increased from last month on recent data and tighter expected supplies. The hog and broiler prices are lowered on recent prices. The turkey price is raised on recent price strength in the second quarter. The egg price is lowered on recent price weakness. Milk production in 2027 is forecast to increase from 2026, driven by higher milk per cow and a stable milk cow herd. Commercial milk exports in 2027 are forecast to be higher than in 2026 on both a fat basis and a skim-solids basis due to additional exports of cheese and whey products. Commercial imports are also forecast to increase on both a fat basis and skims-solids basis due primarily to increases in imports of cheese and milk proteins. Domestic use in 2027 is expected to increase on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis. Dairy product prices are forecast to be higher for cheese and butter, but lower for whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) compared with 2026. As a result, the Class III price is forecast higher and the Class IV price lower in 2027. The all milk price in 2027 is forecast to be lower at $20.95 per cwt. The 2026 milk production forecast is raised slightly from the previous month on expectations of a larger cow herd but a slower growth rate in output per cow, all based on the latest information published in the Milk Production report. The import forecast on a fat basis is raised on increased expectations for butter shipments. The skim-solids import forecast is lowered slightly primarily on lower expected imports of milk proteins. The fat-basis export forecast is increased on higher expected exports of cheese and butter. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised on increased shipments of cheese and whey products more than offsetting lower expected shipments of NDM. The 2026 price forecasts for cheese, NDM and whey are raised compared to the previous month’s forecast, but the butter forecast is lowered to reflect recent prices. The Class III price for 2026 is raised on increased cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is also raised as higher NDM prices will more than offset the effect of lower butter prices. The all milk price for 2026 is increased to $21.25 per cwt. COTTON: The first forecast of the 2026/27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows lower production and ending stocks, and higher exports and beginning stocks compared to 2025/26, with consumption unchanged. Planted area is projected at 9.64 million acres based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Harvested area is forecast to be 7.38 million acres for an abandonment rate of about 24 percent, approximately equal to the 10-year average. The 2026/27 national average yield is projected at 866 pounds per harvested acre based on regionally weighted 5-year averages, slightly above last year’s 852 pounds. Production is projected to be 13.30 million bales, 600,000 below the 13.90 million bales produced in 2025/26. Exports are projected 300,000 bales higher at 12.30 million due to higher global demand and stocks are drawn down. As a result, ending stocks are forecast to be 500,000 bales lower at 3.90 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 28.1 percent. The projected season-average price for 2026/27 is 73 cents per pound. U.S. all-cotton production for 2025/26 is lowered 21,000 bales to 13.90 million. There are no other changes to supply and demand categories in the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet this month. The season-average farm price forecast is raised 2 cents to 63 cents per pound reflecting recent strength in cotton futures. World supply for 2026/27 is down 2 percent from 2025/26 as global production is projected 6.6 million bales lower, more than offsetting the 2.8-million-bale increase in beginning stocks. World consumption is projected to increase 1 percent to 121.7 million bales led by increases for China, India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, and Vietnam (up collectively 1.5 million bales). Global trade is expected to be 1 percent lower at 43.4 million bales as reduced imports by India more than offset increases for Pakistan, China, Vietnam, and other countries. Ending stocks are down 7 percent from 2025/26 at 71.8 million bales as Australia, Brazil and the United States draw down stocks to support exports given smaller crops, and India and China draw down stocks to support consumption. The 2025/26 world balance sheet is revised to show higher production, consumption, and beginning and ending stocks, with trade marginally increased. The global production estimate is raised nearly 1 percent to 122.6 million bales as an almost 900,000-bale increase for Uzbekistan is partially offset by a reduction for Argentina. Consumption is increased by almost 1 percent as mill use in Uzbekistan is raised 1 million bales, reflecting its much larger crop, and consumption in China is revised 500,000 bales higher. Partially offsetting reductions are expected for Pakistan and Vietnam, with small adjustments for several countries. Ending stocks are forecast to increase by around 220,000 bales as the increases in beginning stocks and production exceed that for consumption. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is down slightly to 64.3 percent.