USDA WASDE Highlights 07/10
05/12/2026 | 10:59 am CDT USDA WASDE Highlights 07/10
USDA WASDE Highlights 07/10 WASDE - 673 WHEAT: The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 22 million bushels on lower beginning stocks and production. Production is forecast at 1,536 million bushels, down 7 million from last month. This is the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71. The all wheat yield is 47.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month. Winter wheat production is lowered 39 million bushels to 990 million, almost entirely due to reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. The initial 2026/27 survey-based production forecasts from NASS indicate other spring wheat is less than last year at 475 million bushels on lower harvested area while Durum is also lower at 71 million on reduced harvested area and yields. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks are reduced 22 million bushels to 722 million and are down 22 percent from last year. The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $6.00 per bushel, compared to last year’s final SAFP of $5.06. This month’s 2026/27 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption and trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are projected down 1.0 million tons to 1,099.1 million primarily on reduced beginning stocks for several countries with global output only slightly lower. Production is raised for Russia and Ukraine on continued favorable conditions for their winter wheat crops. Canada’s production is lowered based on Statistics Canada’s Principal Field Crops Area report. Global consumption is raised 1.6 million tons to 826.2 million, mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use for India, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Somalia. World trade is 1.1 million tons higher at 213.1 million on increased exports for Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting reduced exports for Canada. Projected 2026/27 global ending stocks are lowered 2.6 million tons to 272.8 million, primarily on reductions for the United States, India, Argentina, and Canada. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, greater exports, and reduced ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion, reflecting an increase in feed and residual use that is partly offset by a reduction in corn used for ethanol for 2025/26. Feed and residual use is raised 150 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Through the first three quarters of the marketing year, feed and residual use totaled just over 5.6 billion bushels, compared to about 4.8 billion during the same period a year ago. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels based on observed grain crush and ethanol production data to date. Corn production for 2026/27 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 50 million bushels on an increase in exports. Exports are higher reflecting expectations of continued global demand strength. With use rising and supply falling, ending stocks are down 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel. Barley production is down 7 million bushels on slightly lower harvested area and a reduction in yield to 75.9 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Oats production is up 8 million bushels reflecting higher harvested area and an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is raised 13 million bushels based on the larger area reported in the Acreage report. Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 2.5 million tons lower to 1.592 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, total use, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is cut with declines for the EU and Kenya that are partly offset by an increase for Canada. The EU is down reflecting a steep decline for France as record heat reduces yield prospects. If realized, production for France would be the lowest in more than three decades. Production is also cut for Hungary. For Kenya, prolonged dryness during June lowers production prospects. For 2025/26, corn production is raised for Argentina reflecting harvest results to date. Foreign barley production for 2026/27 is up slightly with an increase for Canada. Major global trade changes for 2026/27 include larger corn exports for the United States and Canada. Imports are raised for the EU, Kenya, Iraq, Jordan, and Tunisia. For 2025/26 corn exports are raised for Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, South Africa, and the EU. Imports are reduced for China and Thailand but increased for Jordan and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are cut with reductions for China, Ukraine, and the EU that are partly offset by an increase for Canada. Global corn stocks, at 275.3 million tons, are down 6.0 million. RICE: The U.S. rice outlook for 2026/27 projects reduced supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. All rice supplies decrease by 20.9 million cwt to 254.9 million with a significant cut to production that is partly offset by larger imports. All rice production is projected at 153.3 million cwt, down nearly 13 percent from last month due to smaller planted area indicated in the Acreage report issued June 30. Unfavorable rice prices in the Delta region led producers to plant alternative crops. With less domestic rice available, all rice imports are forecast 4.0 million cwt higher to 49.8 million—all long-grain. Domestic and residual use is decreased 8.0 million cwt to 146.0 million. All rice exports are lowered as well, down 1.0 million cwt to 78.0 million—all medium- and short-grain. Ending stocks are reduced 28 percent this month to 30.9 million cwt. Rice prices are forecast higher for 2026/27 as supplies tighten: the all rice season average farm price increases $1.40 per cwt to $14.90 and prices are raised for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain. The 2026/27 global rice outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, slightly reduced trade, and lower stocks. Despite lower production, supplies increase this month on larger beginning stocks, primarily in India, China, and Burma. India’s supplies are substantial, with the Food Corporation of India expected to procure more rice than required for its food distribution programs in 2026 despite record ending stocks. Global rice consumption and residual use is projected at a record 542.8 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month, largely on an increase for China. World trade is down slightly, with lower exports from Cambodia. Projected 2026/27 world ending stocks are slightly lower this month at 192.6 million tons, with an increase for India offset by reductions for China and the United States. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2026/27 is projected at 131.6 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month, driven by higher output of soybeans, canola, and cottonseed, partially offset by lower production of sunflowerseed and peanuts. Soybean production is projected at 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million on higher harvested area. Harvested area, projected at 84.4 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.7 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies for 2026/27 are raised 30 million bushels as higher production is partly offset by lower beginning stocks. Soybean crush remains unchanged for both 2025/26 and 2026/27 with offsetting changes in soybean meal demand, reflecting higher exports and lower domestic consumption. Soybean exports are raised 30 million bushels on increased supplies and stronger global demand. Higher supplies are offset by higher use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels for 2026/27. Prices are unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $310 per short ton and 70 cents per pound, respectively. Global oilseed production for 2026/27 is increased 1.8 million tons to 720.0 million, driven by higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, soybean, and cottonseed production. Rapeseed production is raised for both Russia and the United States due to higher area. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Russia but reduced for Ukraine. Global soybean production is raised 0.4 million tons, reflecting higher reported area for the United States and Canada, partially offset by reduced area for Russia. Global 2026/27 soybean supply and use forecasts include higher production, increased exports and crush, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are increased for the United States and Brazil, while exports for Russia are reduced due to lower supplies. Soybean imports and crush are increased for China and Algeria, aligning with upward revisions to both imports and crush demand for the prior marketing year. With these changes, China’s year-over-year soybean meal domestic disappearance growth for 2026/27 remains unchanged at 2 percent. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.7 million tons to 124.2 million mainly on lower stocks for Brazil. SUGAR: The Sugar WASDE for July 2026 is updated for changes made in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD). A company remitted changes in deliveries for human consumption starting in 2019/20 and continuing through April of 2026. The company relied on calculations of ending monthly stocks that incorporated the errors made in the originally reported deliveries. While the delivery changes were relatively small on an average monthly basis, the effects on ending-month inventories accumulated over the period to 145,870 short tons, raw value (STRV) by the end of April 2026. The July WASDE uses the corrected deliveries and accumulated stocks components in balance sheet projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27. SUGAR: The Sugar WASDE for July 2026 is updated for changes made in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD). A company remitted changes in deliveries for human consumption starting in 2019/20 and continuing through April of 2026. The company relied on calculations of ending monthly stocks that incorporated the errors made in the originally reported deliveries. While the delivery changes were relatively small on an average monthly basis, the effects on ending-month inventories accumulated over the period to 145,870 short tons, raw value (STRV) by the end of April 2026. The July WASDE uses the corrected deliveries and accumulated stocks components in balance sheet projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27. Sugar production changes for 2026/27 result from area estimates and forecasts released by NASS in the June 30 Acreage report. NASS reduced its estimate of national sugarbeet area planted 2.8 percent from Prospective Plantings to 1.033 million acres. NASS forecasts national area harvested at 1.011 million acres, a reduction of 2.6 percent from the harvested area used in the June WASDE. All else constant, beet sugar production is projected at 4.821 million STRV, a reduction of 117,162 from last month. NASS forecasts Louisiana sugarcane area harvested at 540,000 acres. This is 5,000 acres more than used in last month’s WASDE and results in a sugar production increase of 20,000 STRV to 2.166 million for 2026/27. NASS lowered Florida area only slightly, but Florida sugar production is increased 37,000 STRV to 2.016 million on the basis of processors’ estimates in SMD. Imports are increased 318,545 STRV to 3.579 million mostly on an increase of sugar from Mexico based on U.S. Needs (by terms of the suspension agreements) resulting in an ending U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent in the July WASDE. Although re-export imports for 2025/26 are increased 25,000 STRV to 325,000, they remain at 300,000 for 2026/27. High-tier tariff refined imports are increased by 17,975 STRV for 2025/26 on pace to date and this carried over to 2026/27. Deliveries for human consumption for 2025/26 are increased 56,604 STRV to 12.441 million resulting from updated deliveries recorded in SMD this month and also consistent with pace using the updated data. Deliveries for 2026/27 are carried over from 2025/26. Ending stocks are projected at 1.697 million STRV. Sugar production changes for 2026/27 result from area estimates and forecasts released by NASS in the June 30 Acreage report. NASS reduced its estimate of national sugarbeet area planted 2.8 percent from Prospective Plantings to 1.033 million acres. NASS forecasts national area harvested at 1.011 million acres, a reduction of 2.6 percent from the harvested area used in the June WASDE. All else constant, beet sugar production is projected at 4.821 million STRV, a reduction of 117,162 from last month. NASS forecasts Louisiana sugarcane area harvested at 540,000 acres. This is 5,000 acres more than used in last month’s WASDE and results in a sugar production increase of 20,000 STRV to 2.166 million for 2026/27. NASS lowered Florida area only slightly, but Florida sugar production is increased 37,000 STRV to 2.016 million on the basis of processors’ estimates in SMD. Imports are increased 318,545 STRV to 3.579 million mostly on an increase of sugar from Mexico based on U.S. Needs (by terms of the suspension agreements) resulting in an ending U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent in the July WASDE. Although re-export imports for 2025/26 are increased 25,000 STRV to 325,000, they remain at 300,000 for 2026/27. High-tier tariff refined imports are increased by 17,975 STRV for 2025/26 on pace to date and this carried over to 2026/27. Deliveries for human consumption for 2025/26 are increased 56,604 STRV to 12.441 million resulting from updated deliveries recorded in SMD this month and also consistent with pace using the updated data. Deliveries for 2026/27 are carried over from 2025/26. Ending stocks are projected at 1.697 million STRV. Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.377 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 94,000 on good growing conditions. For 2025/26, production is finishing stronger than anticipated and is now estimated to be up 74,151 MT to 5.310 million MT. Deliveries for 2025/26 are decreased to 4.241 million MT on pace and are left unchanged for 2026/27 at 4.226 million. Exports for 2026/27 are increased 94,000 MT in line with the production increase to 1.292 million, most of which destined to go to the United States pursuant to the suspension agreements. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is raised from the previous month, as higher poultry production more than offsets lower red meat production. Beef production is lowered due to a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year. The decrease in steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets an increase in cow slaughter. Dressed weights are also lowered in the second and third quarter. Pork production is lowered slightly, as reduced slaughter for the second half of the year more than offsets heavier dressed weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2026 reflects the information provided in the June 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed lower pig crops in the first half of 2026 and indications of lower year-over-year farrowings in the second half of 2026. Broiler production is raised in the second and third quarters on recent slaughter data and producers responding to favorable margins. Turkey production is raised on recent slaughter data. Egg production is unchanged. For 2027, beef production is lowered, as decreased feedlot placements in 2026 and a slower pace of marketings reduce total steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production is lowered based on a smaller expected pig crop following the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The reduction in expected slaughter more than offsets heavier dressed weights. Broiler production is raised on continued favorable margins supporting production growth. Turkey production is reduced slightly in the fourth quarter. Egg production is unchanged. Beef exports are lowered in the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year and for 2027. Beef imports are lowered in the second quarter of 2026 on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year and for 2027. Pork exports are lowered for the second quarter of 2026 based on weaker than expected shipments to the Western Hemisphere but are raised slightly in the third quarter. Pork exports are unchanged in 2027. Broiler exports are raised for the second quarter of 2026 on recent trade data but are lowered for the second half of the year on weakness in key markets. Broiler exports for 2027 are unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for the second quarter of 2026 on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027. Price estimates are adjusted to reflect data through the second quarter of 2026. Cattle prices are raised for the third quarter of 2026 based on strong prices during June but remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. Prices are increased slightly in 2027 on lower beef production. Hog prices are lowered for the remainder of 2026 on recent price weakness for hogs and pork but are unchanged for 2027. Broiler prices are unchanged in the second half of 2026 and in 2027. Turkey prices are raised for the remainder of 2026 on recent price data. Egg prices are lowered slightly for the fourth quarter of 2026 but are unchanged for 2027. Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2026 and 2027. Based on the latest Milk Production report, cow inventories are raised for both 2026 and 2027. Output per cow is reduced slightly for 2026 but unchanged for 2027. For 2026, commercial export forecasts are raised on a skim-solids basis, primarily due to increased shipments of cheese and whey-containing products, but unchanged on a fat basis. For 2027, exports are also raised on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis due to increased shipments of cheese, butter, and whey-containing products. Imports are increased on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis for 2026 due to increased shipments of butter, fluid milk and cream, and milk proteins. Imports are also increased on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis for 2027 on increased shipments of butter and miscellaneous dairy products. For 2026, the price forecasts are lowered for nonfat dry milk (NDM), cheese, and butter due to continuing strong growth in the milk supply. The whey price is unchanged from last month. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are both lowered. The all milk price forecast for 2026 is lowered to $20.00 per cwt. For 2027, the price forecasts are lowered for NDM, cheese, and butter, while the price of whey is unchanged. As a result, the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are both lowered as well. The all milk price forecast for 2027 is lowered to $19.85 per cwt. COTTON: The July outlook for 2026/27 U.S. cotton forecasts higher production and ending stocks, with beginning stocks, consumption, imports and exports unchanged from last month. U.S. all-cotton production is raised 400,000 bales to 13.7 million as planted area is estimated at 9.85 million acres based on the June Acreage report, up 2 percent from last month. Harvested area also is projected 2-percent higher at 7.54 million acres assuming a 10-year average abandonment rate for all regions. The national average yield is raised 6 pounds to 872 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting the increased area in the Southeast and Delta and lower area in the Southwest in the June Acreage report. With higher production and no changes to offtake, ending stocks are raised 400,000 bales to 4.1 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 29.5 percent. The projected season-average price is unchanged at 73 cents per pound. There are no changes to supply and demand categories in the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet this month. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is lowered half a cent to 62.5 cents per pound. World cotton supply for 2026/27 is raised 300,000 bales as higher production more than offsets a reduction in beginning stocks. The forecast for global cotton production is raised 1.2 million bales to 117.3 million with bigger crops expected for Brazil, the United States, Turkey, and Central Asia. Consumption is raised slightly to 122.0 million bales with an increase in Vietnam mill use slightly offset by a small reduction for Azerbaijan. Trade is virtually unchanged from last month at 43.3 million bales. With the increase in global supplies exceeding the growth in consumption, ending stocks for 2026/27 are increased slightly to 71.2 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 58.4 percent. For 2025/26, world production is lowered by 750,000 bales following a like reduction for Brazil. Global consumption is reduced modestly to 120.0 million bales as a reduction for Pakistan more than offsets an increase for Vietnam, with small changes elsewhere. Exports are raised 1 percent, primarily on higher shipments by Brazil, and small changes for a few other countries. Ending stocks are reduced by about 900,000 bales, mostly due to the smaller Brazilian crop, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 63.1 percent.