USDA WASDE Highlights 06/11

USDA WASDE Highlights 06/11

WASDE - 672

WHEAT: The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026/27 projects smaller supplies and, with 
no other changes to the balance sheet, lower ending stocks. Supplies are 
reduced on decreased output as all wheat production is projected at 1,543 
million bushels, down 18 million from last month largely on smaller Hard Red 
Winter wheat production. The all wheat yield is down 0.5 bushels per acre to 
47.0 bushels. Exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15 percent 
from the prior year. Projected ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 
744 million, 20 percent below the previous year. The 2026/27 season-average 
farm price is projected $0.50 per bushel lower this month to $6.00 based on 
expectations of futures and cash prices for the marketing year.
All categories of the 2026/27 global wheat balance sheet are raised this month. 
Supplies are projected up 1.7 million tons to 1,100 million, mainly on 
increased production for Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, which is partly offset by 
lower production in Australia and Pakistan. Total wheat production in Russia is 
raised 2.0 million tons to 88.0 million as near-ideal weather conditions and 
above-average rainfall support a higher yield forecast for winter wheat despite 
a reduction in spring wheat harvested area. Production in Turkey is raised 1.5 
million tons to a record 22.5 million and Ukraine is raised 0.5 million to 23.5 
million, both based on favorable spring weather. In Australia, production is 
lowered 2.0 million tons to 28.0 million on lower harvested area as indicated 
by the latest ABARES quarterly report. 
Global consumption is raised 1.4 million tons to 824.6 million, mainly on 
higher feed and residual use in Russia. World trade is 0.3 million tons higher 
at 212.0 million on increased exports for Ukraine and other countries partially 
offset by lower exports for Australia. Projected 2026/27 global ending stocks 
are raised 0.4 million tons to 275.4 million mostly on increases for Egypt and 
Turkey that are partially offset by lower stocks in Ukraine, Australia, Russia, 
and the United States. 
COARSE GRAINS: The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is virtually unchanged relative to 
last month. Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026/27 reflect 
mostly offsetting trade and domestic use changes for 2025/26 with adjustments 
to imports, corn used for ethanol, and exports based on data to date. The 
2026/27 season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 
per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.8 million tons higher 
to 1.594 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger 
production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn 
production is higher, reflecting an area increase for India. For 2025/26, corn 
production is raised for India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay but lowered for 
Mexico. For India, production is higher based on the latest information from 
the government that indicates a sharp increase in area and higher yield. Brazil 
is increased reflecting a boost in production expectations for the first and 
second crops. Argentina is raised with increases to both area and yield based 
on reporting from in-country sources, which indicate larger area and favorable 
harvest results to date. Foreign barley production for 2026/27 is slightly 
higher, reflecting larger crops for Turkey and Ukraine that are partly offset 
by a reduction for India. 
Major global trade changes for 2026/27 include larger corn exports for India 
and South Africa. Imports are raised for Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines but 
lowered for Turkey. For 2025/26, corn exports are raised for India, the United 
States, Russia, South Africa and Paraguay. Imports are raised for Mexico, 
Algeria, and Egypt but lowered for Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks for 
2026/27 are higher reflecting increases for India, Argentina, and South Africa 
that are partly offset by a reduction for Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 
281.2 million tons, are up 3.7 million from last month.
RICE: The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher 
supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and slightly higher ending 
stocks. Supplies are raised on increased beginning stocks with reduced 2025/26 
exports (all long-grain) only partially offset by lower 2025/26 imports (all 
medium- and short-grain). With no changes to 2025/26 domestic use, the 
net-supply increase raises 2025/26 ending stocks by 0.5 million cwt to 54.8 
million, the highest since 1985/86. The 2026/27 season-average farm price 
(SAFP) for all rice is unchanged at $13.50 per cwt, compared to a revised 
2025/26 SAFP of $12.50. 
The 2026/27 global rice outlook this month is for slightly lower supplies and 
consumption, unchanged trade, and minimally higher ending stocks. Supplies are 
lowered 0.1 million tons to 734.0 million, on reduced beginning stocks for Iraq 
and Vietnam. Global 2026/27 production is unchanged this month at 537.8 million 
tons, but 2025/26 production is raised by 1.9 million to 544.7 million. This is 
mainly on India, where the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate is raised to 
a record 154.0 million tons. World 2026/27 consumption is lowered 0.2 million 
tons to 541.2 million, on reductions for Iraq and Vietnam. Global 2026/27 trade 
is unchanged at a record 63.0 million tons. Projected 2026/27 world ending 
stocks are raised 0.1 million tons to 192.8 million, as higher stocks for 
Cambodia are mostly offset by reductions for Bangladesh and other countries.
OILSEEDS: U.S. 2026/27 soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged 
this month. For 2025/26, soybean crush is raised on higher soybean meal exports 
and domestic disappearance. Soybean oil for biofuel use is raised for 2025/26 
while exports are lowered. Soybean exports for 2025/26 are reduced based on 
available U.S. Census data, offsetting the increase in crush and resulting in 
unchanged ending stocks. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2026/27 is 
forecast at $11.40 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at 
$310 per short ton and 70 cents per pound, respectively.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2026/27 include higher beginning 
stocks, lower production, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 
mainly on higher production for Argentina in the prior marketing year, which is 
raised 2 million tons to 50 million. Soybean production for 2026/27 is lowered 
0.2 million tons on reduced harvested area for Russia. Exports are unchanged 
with lower exports for Russia offset by higher exports for Argentina. Global 
soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are raised 0.1 million tons to 124.9 million 
mainly on higher stocks for Argentina.
SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.939 million short 
tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 217,100 over last month. Area harvested 
at 1.038 million acres is unchanged from last month, but national yield is 
increased to 31.94 tons/acre, up from 30.21 tons last month, on the basis of 
more area planted before mid-May than projected last month. Based on 
processors’ estimates, sugar from desugared molasses is projected at 400,000 
STRV, an increase of 25,000 STRV and beet shrink is increased to 8.12 percent. 
Florida cane sugar production is increased 36,800 STRV to 1.979 million on 
processors’ reassessment of the effect of the February freeze on sugarcane 
yield and on good growing conditions this spring. Louisiana cane sugar 
production is unchanged. Imports at 3.260 million STRV are unchanged from last 
month. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 125,500 STRV to 12.385 
million based on stronger domestic deliveries and direct consumption imports 
during the first 7 months of the fiscal year than originally forecast. Ending 
stocks are residually projected at 1.785 million STRV for an ending 
stocks-to-use ratio of 14.27 percent.
Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. 
Sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.283 million metric tons (MT), 
about a 1.0 percent increase over the previous year. Seasonal rains during 
mid-2025 alleviated drought conditions but a better recovery is constrained by 
pressures in agricultural inputs markets, especially fertilizer prices and 
other input costs, that imply relatively lower yields. Area harvested is 
projected at 748,000 hectares (ha), up from 2025/26 and yield is expected at 
65.6 MT/ha. Deliveries for human consumption are down about two percent 
relative to last year resulting from 2026 tax increases on sweetened beverages. 
Ending stocks are projected at 1.063 million MT and include 150,000 MT of below 
99.2 percent polarity sugar available for export to the United States in the 
first quarter of the 2027/28 marketing year. Exports are residually projected 
at 1.198 million MT: 894,788 MT to the U.S. market under license (unchanged 
from last month) and 303,325 to other destinations not under license.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: The USDA confirmed the discovery of New 
World screwworm (NWS) in a calf in Texas on June 3, 2026. Subsequently, 
additional cases have been identified in livestock and pets within the United 
States. In response to these NWS cases, the USDA and local state officials have 
implemented actions to contain and monitor the movement of the pest, including 
quarantines and movement controls of livestock in affected areas. Forecasts in 
this report reflect cases known and policies implemented at the time of 
publication. 
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is raised from the 
previous month, as higher broiler production more than offsets lower red meat 
production. Beef production is lowered, as the slow rate of steer and heifer 
slaughter is expected to continue through the second quarter and into the third 
quarter. Cow slaughter is also reduced for the remainder of the year. Heavier 
dressed weights partially offset the reductions in slaughter. Pork production 
is raised slightly, as reduced slaughter for the second quarter is more than 
offset by heavier dressed weights. Broiler production is raised for the 
remainder of the year on recent slaughter and hatchery data, as well as 
supportive margins. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data. Egg 
production is lowered slightly.
For 2027, beef production is raised, as increased feedlot placements and 
reduced marketings in 2026 will result in more fed cattle available for 
slaughter in 2027. Pork production is raised on slightly heavier dressed 
weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 25 
and will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the 
remainder of 2026 that signal hog supply and pork production conditions for the 
first half of 2027. Broiler production is raised, as favorable returns are 
expected to carry into 2027. Turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is 
reduced slightly, as lower prices are expected to slow production growth.
Beef exports are lowered in the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade 
data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year. Reduced beef exports are 
carried into 2027. Beef imports are unchanged for 2026 and 2027. Pork exports 
are raised for the second quarter of 2026 based on strong shipments to key 
markets reported in recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of 
2026 and into 2027. Broiler exports are raised for the second and third 
quarters of 2026 on recent trade data and improved demand in several key 
markets. Broiler exports for 2027 are unchanged. Turkey exports are lowered for 
the second and third quarters of 2026 on recent trade data and less competitive 
prices. Turkey exports are unchanged for the fourth quarter and for 2027.
Cattle prices are raised for the second quarter of 2026 based on strong prices 
during the month of May but remain unchanged for the remainder of the year and 
into 2027. Hog prices are lowered for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 on 
recent price weakness for hogs and pork. Broiler prices are raised for the 
second quarter of 2026 on recent prices but lowered for the remainder of 2026 
and into 2027. Turkey prices are raised for the second quarter of 2026 on 
prices reported through May but are unchanged for the remainder of the outlook. 
Egg prices are raised slightly for the second quarter of 2026 but lowered for 
the first half of 2027.
Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2026 and 2027. Based on the 
latest Milk Production report, cow inventories and milk per cow are raised for 
both 2026 and 2027.
For 2026, commercial export forecasts are raised on both a fat basis and a 
skim-solids basis, primarily due to increased shipments of cheese, whey, and 
butter. For 2027, exports are raised on a fat basis due to higher butter 
shipments but lowered on a skim-solids basis due to less competitive dried skim 
milk products. Imports are unchanged on both a fat and skim-solids basis for 
2026. For 2027, skim-solids basis imports are reduced from last month primarily 
due to less whey product imports, while fat basis imports are unchanged. 
For 2026, the nonfat dry milk (NDM), cheese, and whey price forecasts are 
lowered from the previous month on recent price declines. The butter price is 
raised on stronger demand expected in the second half of the year. The Class 
III and Class IV price forecasts are both lowered. The all milk price forecast 
for 2026 is lowered to $20.70 per cwt. For 2027, the cheese price forecast is 
lowered, while whey prices are raised slightly. The price forecasts for NDM and 
butter are unchanged from the previous month. The Class III price forecast is 
unchanged as lower cheese prices are offset by higher whey prices. The Class IV 
price forecast is unchanged due to no changes in the butter or NDM price 
outlook. The all milk price forecast for 2027 is lowered to $20.90 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2026/27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows reduced beginning and 
ending stocks, due to a 200,000-bale decrease from the previous year. 
Production, consumption, and trade forecasts are unchanged this month, and the 
projected season-average price remains at 73 cents per pound.
Exports for 2025/26 are now projected at 12.20 million bales, an increase of 
200,000 from last month, while mill use is reduced 50,000 bales to 1.55 
million. As a result, ending stocks are now forecast at 4.20 million bales, for 
a stocks-to-use ratio of 31 percent. The 2025/26 season-average farm price 
remains estimated at 63 cents per pound.
World cotton supply for 2026/27 is slightly lower due to reduced beginning 
stocks. Production remains at 116.0 million bales, with trade marginally down. 
Consumption edges up to 121.8 million bales, driven by increased demand from 
China despite declines for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Korea. Ending stocks 
for 2026/27 are reduced slightly this month to 71.1 million bales, mainly 
because of lower beginning stocks.
For 2025/26, higher world exports reduce ending stocks, with global production 
and use largely unchanged. Exports are raised by over 1 percent, led by Brazil, 
the United States, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Global production is increased by 
15,000 bales due to Egypt, offsetting Argentina's decline. Consumption is 
lowered 25,000 bales as decreases in several countries outweigh gains in China 
and Vietnam. Ending stocks are reduced by more than 600,000 bales, lowering the 
stocks-to-use ratio to 64 percent.