USDA WASDE Highlights 09/11

USDA WASDE Highlights 09/11

WASDE - 675

WHEAT: All of the aggregate supply and use categories for 2026/27 U.S. wheat 
are unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class changes for 
exports. White wheat exports are raised 20 million bushels and Hard Red Winter 
and Hard Red Spring exports are lowered 15 and 5 million, respectively. This 
change is based on reported sales and shipments of these wheat classes to date 
and their prices relative to key competitors. The season-average farm price 
(SAFP) is increased $0.20 per bushel to $6.40 based on NASS prices reported to 
date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the 
marketing year. Additionally, the higher wheat SAFP is supported by increased 
U.S. corn prices. 
This month’s 2026/27 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, greater 
consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are projected 
up 3.5 million tons to 1,103.0 million mainly on higher production in several 
major exporting countries. Australia is raised 3.0 million tons to 31.0 million 
on the latest ABARES quarterly report and very favorable conditions in both 
South Australia and Victoria, with abundant precipitation and recent improved 
moisture conditions in Western Australia. Canada is increased 1.0 million tons 
to 36.0 million on continued widespread favorable conditions in the Prairie 
Provinces. Ukraine is raised 0.6 million tons to 26.0 million on a record yield 
as the harvest nears completion. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is lowered 1.0 
million tons to 15.0 million on lower area harvested based on updated official 
statistics.
Global consumption is raised 0.5 million tons to 826.8 million, as higher feed 
and residual use more than offsets lower food, seed, and industrial use. Feed 
and residual use is higher this month, led by Australia with relatively smaller 
increases for Kazakhstan and Ukraine. World trade is 0.9 million tons lower at 
211.8 million on reductions for Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Egypt only 
partially offset by higher exports for Australia, Canada, and Argentina. Russia 
and Ukraine exports are reduced based on weak August shipments as the war in 
the Black Sea region hampers logistics. Projected 2026/27 global ending stocks 
are raised 3.0 million tons to 276.3 million mainly on increases for Russia, 
Australia, and Ukraine.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller 
supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. 
Projected beginning stocks for 2026/27 are 23 million bushels lower based 
primarily on a larger export forecast for 2025/26. Corn production for 2026/27 
is forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million from last month on a 
2.2-bushel reduction in yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and a fractional 
decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million.
Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast down 150 million bushels to 16.2 
billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 150 million bushels to 6.0 billion. 
Exports are unchanged at 3.3 billion bushels despite lower production, 
reflecting expectations of steady demand. With declining supply only partly 
offset by reduced use, ending stocks are lowered 86 million bushels to 1.6 
billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised $0.30 
per bushel to $4.80. 
Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.1 million tons lower 
to 1.588 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger 
production, trade, use, and stocks relative to last month. 
Foreign corn production is forecast lower with decreases for India, Kenya, and 
Russia that are partially offset by increases for the EU and other countries. 
India corn production is lowered, with reduced area harvested and below normal 
rainfall lowering yield prospects. In Kenya, a prolonged dry spell caused 
widespread crop failure throughout the grain basket. Foreign barley production 
is higher with increases for Australia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Barley 
production in Australia is forecast to a record 17.1 million tons, up 3.0 
million this month as favorable rainfall is anticipated to boost yield. Major 
global coarse grain trade changes for 2026/27 include smaller corn exports for 
Brazil on higher domestic use for ethanol production and increased barley 
exports for Australia on larger production. Foreign corn ending stocks are cut, 
mostly reflecting a reduction for India that is only partly offset by increases 
for Zambia, Ukraine, and Brazil. World corn ending stocks, at 272.1 million 
tons, are down 2.6 million this month.
RICE: The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. rice this month is for larger supplies and 
with no other changes to the balance sheet, higher ending stocks. Supplies are 
increased on greater beginning stocks, partly offset by a small decrease in 
production. Beginning stocks are raised 4.6 million cwt to 58.4 million on the 
NASS Rice Stocks report released August 20. The all rice production forecast is 
lowered by 0.2 million cwt to 158.2 million, on lower harvested area but a 
slightly higher yield forecast, as indicated by the NASS September Crop 
Production report. Long-grain rice production is forecast 3.2 million cwt lower 
to 103.5 million but is mostly offset by an increase for medium- and 
short-grain rice production, up to 54.6 million. The average all rice yield is 
forecast up 46 pounds per acre to 7,690 pounds. Total domestic and residual use 
is projected at 148.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month. All rice ending 
stocks are projected 4.4 million cwt higher at 40.4 million but are down 31 
percent from last year. The 2026/27 all rice season-average farm price is 
projected at $14.90 per cwt, unchanged from last month for all classes.
The 2026/27 global rice outlook this month is for higher supplies, reduced 
consumption, lower trade, and increased ending stocks. Most of the largest 
supply and use changes this month are for India. Global supplies are raised 1.2 
million tons to 736.6 million as India’s higher beginning stocks more than 
offset India’s lower 2026/27 production. The below-normal rainfall and uneven 
coverage of India’s monsoon is resulting in its first year-to-year reduction 
for rice production in ten years. World 2026/27 consumption is decreased 3.2 
million tons to 539.6 million, largely on India. Global 2026/27 trade is 
lowered slightly at 62.6 million tons mainly on reduced Cambodian exports. 
Projected 2026/27 world ending stocks are raised 4.4 million tons to 197.0 
million tons with India’s stocks increasing 4.5 million and now accounting 
for 28 percent of the global total.
OILSEEDS: The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production and 
exports, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is 
projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million with higher harvested area and 
yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The 
soybean yield of 52.8 bushels per acre is up 0.1 bushels from last month. The 
crush forecast is unchanged while the soybean export forecast is raised 25 
million bushels to 1.69 billion. Ending stocks are projected at 310 million 
bushels, down 10 million from last month. 
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel, up 
$0.60 from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $30 to $340 per 
short ton and the soybean oil price is unchanged at 70 cents per pound. Other 
changes this month include lower U.S. peanut production.
Global 2026/27 oilseed production is raised mainly on higher rapeseed and 
sunflowerseed production. Rapeseed production is raised 1.9 million tons on 
larger output for Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uruguay. Global 
sunflowerseed production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher output for 
Kazakhstan, Russia, and the European Union. 
The global soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher production, 
crush, and exports, but lower ending stocks. Global soybean production is 
increased 0.1 million tons to 442.3 million on higher production for the United 
States and Canada. Partly offsetting is lower production for India and the 
European Union. Global soybean exports for 2026/27 are increased with higher 
shipments for the United States, Canada, Benin, and Ukraine. Imports are raised 
mainly for the EU, India, and Japan. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 
0.2 million tons to 124.0 million mainly on lower stocks for the United States.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is increased 128,260 short tons, raw value 
(STRV) to 14.604 million mostly on increases in imports. Imports are increased 
120,862 STRV to 2.964 million. High-tier tariff imports are up 86,328 STRV on 
increased raw sugar entries occurring mostly at the end of July and also in 
early September. Imports from Mexico are increased 22,069 STRV to 241,706 on 
actual entries from Census data through July 31 and Customs data covering 
August and the first week of September. The raw sugar TRQ shortfall increased 
30,673 STRV but was mostly offset by an increase in FTA TRQ imports of 28,003 
previously forecast to enter in the fourth quarter of 2026. (FTA TRQ imports 
for 2026/27 are reduced by the same amount.) Deliveries for human consumption 
decreased below expectations in July but not enough to warrant a decrease in 
the estimate for 2025/26. Ending stocks increased by the change in supply to 
2.033 million STRV with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.17 percent. 
U.S. sugar supply for 2026/27 is decreased 168,282 tons on increases in 
beginning stocks more than offset by a reduction in sugar production and 
imports. Beet sugar production is projected at 4.769 million STRV, a decrease 
of 22,354 from last month. NASS forecasts national sugarbeet production at 
31.763 million tons on a yield of 31.47 tons/acre and area harvested of 1.009 
million acres. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is projected at 2.252 million 
STRV, a decrease of 13,852 from last month. The industry is well aware of the 
mealy bug issues and is actively working to mitigate its effect on production. 
The industry maintains it cannot make a forecast of the mealy bug effect on 
production until the harvest is well underway. Cane sugar production in Florida 
is decreased from last month to 1.819 million STRV based on processors’ 
reporting. Two processors not reporting changes last month decreased their 
forecasts, likely as a consequence of the effects of the mealy bug infestation. 
Since July, forecasted production has decreased 9.8 percent to the current 
projection. Imports are decreased 186,004 STRV, mostly on fewer imports 
projected from Mexico consistent with the Suspension Agreements’ definition 
of U.S. Needs that results in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent for 
the September WASDE. Use is unchanged.

U.S. sugar supply for 2026/27 is decreased 168,282 tons on increases in 
beginning stocks more than offset by a reduction in sugar production and 
imports. Beet sugar production is projected at 4.769 million STRV, a decrease 
of 22,354 from last month. NASS forecasts national sugarbeet production at 
31.763 million tons on a yield of 31.47 tons/acre and area harvested of 1.009 
million acres. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is projected at 2.252 million 
STRV, a decrease of 13,852 from last month. The industry is well aware of the 
mealy bug issues and is actively working to mitigate its effect on production. 
The industry maintains it cannot make a forecast of the mealy bug effect on 
production until the harvest is well underway. Cane sugar production in Florida 
is decreased from last month to 1.819 million STRV based on processors’ 
reporting. Two processors not reporting changes last month decreased their 
forecasts, likely as a consequence of the effects of the mealy bug infestation. 
Since July, forecasted production has decreased 9.8 percent to the current 
projection. Imports are decreased 186,004 STRV, mostly on fewer imports 
projected from Mexico consistent with the Suspension Agreements’ definition 
of U.S. Needs that results in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent for 
the September WASDE. Use is unchanged.
Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.377 million metric tons 
(MT), a 1 percent increase from the prior year. While seasonal rains during 
mid-2025 and so far in 2026 have helped alleviate the drought conditions 
experienced in prior marketing years, the ongoing recovery remains constrained 
by recent pressures on the agricultural inputs market. Harvested area for 
2026/27 is forecast at 748,000 hectares (ha), an increase of 2 percent. Cane 
harvest is forecast at 49.8 million MT with a field yield of 66.6 mt/ha. 
According to industry sources, production at the beginning of 2026/27 will 
focus on below 99.2 polarity sugar production. Beginning stocks are projected 
higher at 1.370 million MT. Domestic consumption is expected to remain flat 
year-over-year, as the 2026 Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) 
continues to limit demand recovery. Exports are projected at 1.387 million MT 
with shipments to the U.S. market under the terms of the Suspension Agreements 
at 1.017. The new Export Limit is 70 percent of projected exports at 712,000 
MT, an increase of 136,000 established by the Commerce Department in July. 
Ending stocks are projected at 1.143 million MT, which includes 150,000 MT of 
below 99.2 polarity sugar intended to be exported to the United States in the 
first quarter of the next fiscal year. 
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: On September 8, 2026, the Executive Office 
of the President announced the exclusion of certain Canadian dairy products 
from importation into the United States, effective with respect to goods 
imported on or after September 29, 2026. Additionally, duties on certain 
Canadian dairy products, which had previously been announced on July 20, 2026, 
took effect on August 21, 2026. This forecast assumes that both the import 
exclusions and duties remain in effect throughout the forecast period. 
The forecast for 2026 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last 
month, mostly on lower beef and pork production. Beef production is reduced on 
a slower pace of fed cattle marketings in the third quarter, lighter dressed 
weights in the third quarter, and lower cow slaughter in the fourth quarter. 
Pork production is lowered on a slower expected pace of slaughter and lighter 
dressed weights. Broiler production forecasts are unchanged. Turkey production 
is reduced on lighter weights. Egg production is increased on growth in the 
layer flock. 
For 2027, the red meat and poultry production forecast is reduced as lower beef 
and pork production more than offsets higher broiler production. Beef 
production is lowered on lighter dressed weights and lower-than-expected 
feedlot placements in the first half of 2027. Pork production is lowered on 
lighter dressed weights. Broiler production is raised in the second half of the 
year. Turkey and egg forecasts are unchanged. 
Beef exports are increased slightly for 2026 and 2027 on increased shipments to 
Asian markets. With the expansion of quotas allowing for reduced tariffs on 
beef through November, imports are raised in 2026 on stronger expected 
shipments from South America, but the import forecast is unchanged for 2027. 
Pork exports are lowered for both 2026 and 2027 on weaker demand and increased 
global competition. Broiler exports are unchanged for 2026 but lowered for 2027 
on increased global competition. Turkey exports are increased in 2026 but are 
unchanged in 2027. Egg exports are increased in 2026 on increased shipments to 
Asian markets but are unchanged in 2027.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 on 
lower-than-expected packer demand. Lower price forecasts are carried through 
the end of 2027. Hog price forecasts are decreased for the remainder of 2026 on 
recent price weakness. These price decreases are carried through 2027. Broiler 
prices are lowered in the fourth quarter of 2026 but are unchanged in 2027. 
Turkey price forecasts for 2026 are raised on current price strength. These 
price increases are carried through 2027. Egg price forecasts are lowered for 
the remainder of 2026 on recent price weakness but are unchanged for 2027.
The milk production forecast is increased for both 2026 and 2027. Based on the 
latest Milk Production report, both cow inventories and output per cow are 
raised for 2026 and 2027.  
For both 2026 and 2027, commercial export forecasts are lowered both on a 
skim-solids basis on reduced shipments of whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) and on 
a fat basis primarily on reduced shipments of cheese and butter. Over the same 
period, commercial import forecasts are lowered on a skim-solids basis on 
reduced imports of casein and miscellaneous dairy (including whey) but raised 
on a fat basis on increased imports of butter that are only partially offset by 
decreased imports of milk powder and miscellaneous dairy.  
For both 2026 and 2027, the price forecasts are decreased for butter and cheese 
but increased for NDM to reflect recent prices. Whey price forecasts are 
unchanged in 2026 but increased in 2027. For both 2026 and 2027, the Class III 
price forecast is lowered as higher whey prices only partially offset lower 
cheese prices, and the Class IV price forecast is raised as higher NDM prices 
more than fully offset lower butter prices. For 2026, the all milk price 
forecast is raised to $19.90 per cwt. For 2027, the all milk price forecast is 
unchanged at $19.80 per cwt.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2026/27 show lower production, 
consumption, and beginning and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected 
imports and exports are unchanged. Production is reduced by 3 percent to 13.2 
million bales as the national average yield is also lowered by 3 percent to 776 
pounds per harvested acre. Regionally, yields and production are lower in the 
Delta and Southwest while slightly higher in the Southeast and West. Projected 
mill use is reduced to 1.50 million bales as the U.S. textile base continues to 
contract. With smaller supplies due to reductions in beginning stocks and 
production, the forecast for ending stocks is reduced by 10 percent to 3.60 
million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26.1 percent, down from 28.8 
percent last month. The projected season average farm price for upland cotton 
is 78 cents/lb., up from 75 cents/lb. last month. 
For 2025/26, the U.S. export estimate is raised to 12.30 million bales, 
reflecting year-end trade data from Census and other sources. Meanwhile, the 
ending stocks estimate is lowered to 4.15 million bales due to stronger 
exports. The estimated season average farm price is raised slightly to 62.0 
cents/lb. 
Projected world production for 2026/27 is lowered while trade and beginning and 
ending stocks are all increased. Global cotton consumption stays the same. 
Production is lowered by over 300,000 bales to 117.3 million as reductions for 
the United States, Turkey and Pakistan more than offset increases for Brazil, 
the African Franc Zone and Kazakhstan. For consumption, an increase in 
Indonesia is balanced by a decrease in the United States, and other minor 
changes offset each other. Projected trade is up by over 400,000 bales as 
higher exports from Brazil and the African Franc Zone are matched by greater 
imports in Turkey, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Global ending stocks rise by about 
170,000 bales as higher beginning stocks are partially offset by lower 
production.
For 2025/26, global imports, consumption, and ending stocks are raised, 
primarily reflecting updated trade data.