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Precipitation Impact Commentary

Weather Systems Becoming More Frequent and Widespread Next Week

Clippers have been frequent lately, and one last one will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. But the propensity for larger and more widespread storm systems is forecast to start next week.

In the Midwest, some streaks of snow have fallen in the region this week, but very little significant precipitation was noted. A clipper will bring snow to the Great Lakes for Thursday and Friday, and some lake-effect snow may linger over the weekend. However, a system is likely to move through the early to middle part of next week with more widespread showers, and another may follow for late next week with more of the same. A more active weather track through the region is forecast thereafter through the end of February, which would be more beneficial for some of the drought out there.

In the Northern Plains, spotty showers moved through this week, but most areas have been warm and dry. Very little precipitation is forecast through the weekend, but a smaller storm may bring some mixed precipitation to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. That is the start of a more active weather pattern for the country, though the region may only be on the edge of systems going forward.

In the Central and Southern Plains, a few spotty showers fell this week, but most areas stayed dry. Warm air and lots of sun have melted the remaining snow in the region, though soil moisture is still labelled as low in many areas and drought is scattered about. Very little precipitation is expected through the weekend. But the weather pattern will become more active, starting with a system early in the week across the north and through the region at the end of the week. These systems may not produce much precipitation over the west, but will likely produce heavier amounts and more extensive coverage as they move east. This will cause mixed results for many areas.

In the Delta, a front went through with scattered showers this week, but had very little impact on the drought across the region. Dry conditions are expected into early next week. However, the weather pattern is forecast to become more active for the second half of next week, which is likely to produce widespread precipitation both through the Delta and the Midwest, which will help to raise water levels on the Mississippi River with time. The second half of February also looks promising in that regard.

In the Southeast, a front went through this week with scattered showers. Some areas of moderate rain occurred, but had little impact on the ongoing drought. Dry conditions are favored through the middle of next week, but systems will start to become more frequent late next week through the rest of February. There will be multiple chances for reducing drought.

In the Western U.S., some showers went through the Northwest, but most of the region was dry this week. Despite a low-pressure center off the California coast, very little precipitation is expected through early next week in the Southwest. Precipitation is forecast to increase across the Northwest this weekend, but then spread through more of the region next week and through much of February. Though drought conditions have been increasing lately, the pattern does favor some better moisture for much of the region

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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