Warm Temps For Most

GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLDOWN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

EAST:

A low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes region will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday. A severe thunderstorm threat is present across portions of Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri during this period, with the threat extending into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. Rain and thunderstorm activity will be widespread across much of the eastern U.S. through Thursday, with a cold front sweeping through the region. A warm front extending into the Northeast will help focus additional precipitation across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. By Friday, the low pressure system will be centered near the Great Lakes, and a severe thunderstorm threat will persist across portions of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with rain and thunderstorms continuing across a broad area from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Southeast. Thunderstorm activity will continue to be widespread across the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. By Saturday, a new low pressure system will develop near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front sweeping through the region and a warm front extending into New England. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. By Sunday, a low pressure system will be positioned near the Tennessee Valley with a cold front extending southwestward and an occluded front lifting into the Northeast, keeping rain and thunderstorm chances elevated across the eastern U.S.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be running well above normal across much of the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal in some areas. The Southeast will be near to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Ohio Valley, with anomalies generally in the 6 to 12 degree above-normal range. The Southeast will trend toward near-normal conditions.
-Days 7-10: Temperature anomalies across the East will trend closer to near normal, with only modest above-normal signals remaining along the immediate Northeast coast. Much of the Southeast and Ohio Valley will be near normal.

CENTRAL:

Rain and thunderstorms are currently widespread across the central Plains, upper Midwest, and western Great Lakes, with a significant severe thunderstorm threat in place across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, and Missouri through Thursday. Heavy rain and flash flooding are also possible across portions of this same region. A cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward into the central Plains, with a warm front lifting into the upper Midwest. By Friday, the severe thunderstorm threat will shift slightly eastward but will remain a concern across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Missouri, with rain and thunderstorms continuing across a broad area from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. Multiple low pressure systems will be active across the central and southern Plains through the weekend, keeping rain and thunderstorm chances elevated. By Saturday, rain will continue across portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with a high pressure system building into the central Plains behind the departing frontal system. By Sunday, rain and thunderstorm activity will continue across the central Plains and Midwest as another frontal system pushes through the region.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be running above normal across much of the central Plains and Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees above normal across Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and surrounding areas. The northern Plains will be near to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will begin to erode across the central Plains and Midwest, with near-normal readings returning to portions of the northern Plains. Montana and the Dakotas will see below-normal temperatures develop, with anomalies running 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
-Days 7-10: A significant cooldown will take hold across the central Plains and Midwest, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across portions of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and surrounding states by the middle of next week. This below-normal signal will be one of the more notable temperature departures of the forecast period across the central U.S.

WEST:

The West will remain relatively quiet through much of the forecast period. Rain and isolated thunderstorm activity will be confined to portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, particularly across Montana, Idaho, and Washington. A low pressure system near the California coast on Thursday will bring some rain to portions of the Southwest and southern California, with additional isolated showers possible across the Intermountain West. By the weekend, high pressure will build across the central and southern portions of the West, keeping conditions dry across much of the region. Isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will persist across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest through the period.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, particularly Montana and Idaho, will see below-normal temperatures, with anomalies of 3 to 9 degrees below normal. The Southwest, southern California, and portions of the Great Basin will be slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures will persist across Montana and the northern Rockies, while above-normal warmth will expand across California, Nevada, Arizona, and the broader Southwest, with anomalies running 3 to 9 degrees above normal in some areas. The Pacific Northwest coast will trend above normal by Day 6.
-Days 7-10: The Pacific Northwest coast will remain above normal, while below-normal temperatures will linger across portions of Montana, Wyoming, and the northern Rockies. Much of the interior West will trend toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period.

TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the mainland US from either the Pacific or Atlantic basins during the next seven days.