Warm Temperatures Continue

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST, WITH THIS THREAT PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE ABOVE-NORMAL EAST AND THE INCREASINGLY BELOW-NORMAL CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS.

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EAST: A complex low pressure system will be the dominant weather-maker across the eastern United States to start the period. On Monday, a low centered near the Great Lakes region will have a warm front extending eastward into the Northeast and a cold front pushing southward. Rain and thunderstorm activity will be widespread across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Southeast, with mixed precipitation — including some freezing rain potential — pushing across portions of the interior Northeast and northern New England. As the low tracks northeastward through Tuesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley corridor on Monday and into Tuesday, as the warm sector remains in place ahead of the approaching cold front. The threat for severe thunderstorms will be elevated across a corridor from the Midwest into the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday, the cold front will have pushed through much of the region, with rain and thunderstorm activity shifting toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast. By Wednesday, a high pressure system building in behind the front will bring drier and cooler conditions to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, though rain will linger along the Eastern Seaboard as a cold front slowly pushes offshore. By Thursday, the front has cleared most of the East, with rain confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast. High pressure will dominate the northern and central portions of the East, bringing a period of quieter weather.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures will run well above normal across much of the East, particularly from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above average in many locations. The warmth is most pronounced on Days 2 and 3 ahead of the advancing cold front.

– Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Day 4, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F or more above average. By Days 5 and 6, the above-normal signal weakens considerably, and temperatures trend toward near or slightly below normal across much of the East as the cold front pushes through and high pressure settles in.

– Days 7-10: Temperatures return to near or slightly below normal across most of the East, with only modest anomalies. A slight below-normal signal emerges across portions of the interior Northeast by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The Central United States will be the focal point for the most impactful weather of the period. On Monday, a low pressure system tracking across the Central Plains will generate a broad area of thunderstorm activity from the South Central region northward through the Midwest and into the Northern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across a corridor from the Central Plains through the Midwest, with the threat extending from Nebraska and Kansas northward through Iowa, Wisconsin, and into Minnesota. Snow will be possible across the Northern Plains. As the system intensifies and tracks northeastward Monday night into Tuesday, the severe thunderstorm threat will shift and expand, with heavy rain and flash flooding becoming a significant concern across a broad area from Oklahoma and Arkansas northward through Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and into Michigan. The combination of heavy rainfall rates and saturated soils could lead to dangerous flash flooding across this corridor on Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, snow will continue to be possible across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday and into Tuesday. By Tuesday, a secondary low pressure system develops near the Gulf Coast, and the cold front extends from the Central Plains southward. Thunderstorm activity will continue across the South Central region and into the lower Mississippi Valley. By Wednesday, the cold front sweeps through the Central region, with thunderstorm activity pushing into the South Central states and Gulf Coast. A high pressure system building across the Northern Plains will bring a return to drier conditions across the north-central states. By Thursday, the cold front has pushed well to the south and east, and precipitation will be confined to the South Central states and Gulf Coast, where thunderstorm activity continues ahead of the front.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures will be well above normal across the central United States on Day 1, particularly from the Central Plains through the Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F or more above average. By Days 2 and 3, a sharp contrast develops as cold air surges southward behind the front — the Northern Plains and Rockies will see temperatures running 6 to more than 12°F below normal, while the Midwest and Central Plains remain well above normal ahead of the front.

– Days 4-6: The below-normal temperature signal expands across the Central Plains and Midwest by Days 4 through 6, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F below normal across much of the region from the Rockies through the Central Plains. By Day 6, the below-normal signal begins to moderate somewhat across the southern portions of the Central region.

– Days 7-10: Temperatures trend back toward near or slightly above normal across much of the Central region by Days 7 through 10, with a broad but modest above-normal signal returning to the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Central Plains.

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WEST: The western United States will see a relatively quieter weather pattern compared to the central and eastern portions of the country, though some notable weather will occur. On Monday, a low pressure system near the California coast will contribute to some precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with rain at lower elevations and snow at higher elevations. Mixed precipitation, including some snow, will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across portions of the Southwest, particularly over New Mexico, where dry and windy conditions will create elevated fire danger. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the weather pattern across the West becomes more tranquil as high pressure builds across the region. Some lingering precipitation will be possible across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with snow continuing at higher elevations. By Thursday, precipitation activity across the West will be limited, with the most active weather confined to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies where some rain and mountain snow will continue.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will run below normal, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below average. The remainder of the West will be near to slightly above normal on Day 1, with the below-normal signal expanding across the Intermountain West and Rockies by Days 2 and 3, where anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below normal are expected across portions of the northern and central Rockies.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures will continue across much of the Rockies and Intermountain West through Days 4 and 5, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal. By Day 6, the below-normal signal shifts, with California and portions of the Southwest trending above normal, while the Great Basin and Rockies remain below average.

– Days 7-10: Temperatures across the West will trend back toward above normal by Days 7 through 10, with a broad above-normal signal developing across California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Intermountain West, with anomalies generally in the 3 to 6°F above-normal range.

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TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either the Atlantic or Pacific basins during the next seven days.