Vitol: Jet Fuel Demand to Climb by 2.6M bpd by 2040

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Global jet fuel demand is expected to climb steadily through 2040 as rising incomes and a doubling of passenger numbers drive sector expansion, Vitol said in its long-term outlook released on Monday (2/9).

Key assumptions:

• Absolute jet fuel demand is projected to increase by approximately 2.6 million bpd by 2040, supported by the continued growth of international travel.
• Jet fuel will represent 9% of the total refined product barrel by the end of the forecast period, rising from its current 7% share.
• SAF represents the only near-term potential to partially replace traditional petroleum-based fuels, while hydrogen and electric planes remain decades away from commercial viability.
• SAF adoption is currently limited by constrained supply and high costs, which remain roughly three times that of standard petroleum-derived jet fuel.
• Global supply of SAF is unlikely to exceed 15% of total jet demand by 2040 due to significant limitations in feedstock and conversion capacity.
• Aggressive SAF mandates in Europe and North America will likely raise travel costs, potentially impacting aviation activity in price-sensitive emerging economies.
• For SAF to scale, the industry must repurpose retired refinery infrastructure and significantly increase the production of crops, plants and waste oil feedstocks.
• In the absence of disruptive technology, jet fuel and LPG remain the primary drivers of growth for the global oil barrel through the next decade.