STUBBORN EAST COAST COLD THIS FEBRUARY

February is the winter month when one can start to notice signs of change as the spring months approach. Average temperatures begin to warm up. Average highs climb through the 20s and 30s and into the 30s with some 40s in the North. Average highs generally climb out of the 40s and 50s and into the 50s with some 60s in the South; with 70s in the Desert Southwest, Deep South Texas, and Florida. Daylight hours increase at a faster pace with 10-11 hours across the North and 11-12 hours across the South.

The month of January could be broken down to two distinct patterns between the first half of the month and the second half. The first half of January featured abundant warm anomalies across much of the US, particularly centered around the January 5-13 time frame where most areas away from the West Coast saw readings peak 15-25 degrees above normal for much of that period. Peak warm anomalies favored the Central US. Some leftover cold air from December did linger across the Northeast over the first 5-6 days of the month before the warmer conditions were ushered in. However, the +EPO trough near Alaska that directed the milder Pacific-based airmass into the US the first half of January transitioned over to a -EPO ridge. This opened up the flow of much colder Arctic air into the Central/Eastern US during the second half of January. An initial cold shot over the January 17-21 time frame had the greatest impacts from the Midwest to the Southeast, and this was quickly followed by the coldest airmass of the winter season to date during the final week of January. Cold anomalies reached as much as 20-35 degrees below normal. The low in Minneapolis on January 23 reached -21 degrees, and this was the first time the low had reached into the -20s since 2019. This blast of Arctic air arrived in tandem with a potent winter storm system during January 23-26. This brought heavy snow from Oklahoma towards the Ohio Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast while a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain impacted portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. Tulsa and St. Louis saw 8-10 inches of snow, while a band from Indianapolis to Pittsburgh to NYC sat in the 10-14 inch range and Boston saw up to 15-20 inches of snow. This system was the primary source of precipitation in January, as below normal precipitation was otherwise in place for this month across much of the US. Occasional systems did provide some rain and mountain snow to the West Coast over the first 10-12 days of January before turning dry the remainder of January. Snowfall was below normal in the Upper Midwest as snow largely came in the form of weak clipper systems passing through the region. There were periods of significant but localized lake-effect snow off the Great Lakes as the colder pattern took hold over the second half of January.

A prominent feature this February is likely to be a persistent ridge near Greenland. This will keep a trough trapped across the East, allowing for the cold pattern from late January to remain entrenched the first half of February. This will be in contrast with a ridge in the West producing above normal temperatures over the first two weeks of February. The battleground will fall across the Central US, and this will lead to the Central US being the most volatile region for temperatures. For the first half of February, more days featuring warm anomalies are favored for most of the Plains, but will be slower to fill in across the Southern Plains during the first week of the month. Colder anomalies are anticipated along the Mississippi Valley and eastward, though the first week of February will see brief milder stretches across the Upper Mississippi Valley. There are signs that the +EPO trough near Alaska helping flood the West/Plains with milder Pacific air will transition over to a -EPO ridge during mid-February. This will allow for Arctic air to build up across Canada once again, and it should eventually spill across the Central/Eastern US. The bulk of this cold is most likely to occur during the third week of February, with the coldest anomalies expected to target the Midwest through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. While it is unlikely to be quite as potent as the Arctic blast that ended January, cold anomalies during this period may be significant. Warmth should begin to ease in the West during this time frame, especially in the Northwest where more modest cold anomalies should begin to seep into the region. The -EPO ridge should fade away by the fourth week of February. At the same time, tropical forcing should become enhanced across the western Pacific Ocean. This should result in the return of a ridge over the Southeast, allowing for warm anomalies to return across the South. Milder air should gradually expand into the Midwest and East late in the month, though major warm anomalies are not likely. The coolest anomalies in the US to end the month should favor the Northwest, but potent cold is not expected.

The first 7-10 days of February should contain multiple clipper systems brushing across the Midwest towards the Northeast, bringing periods of light snow. One of these systems could drop far enough south to bring the potential of snow towards the Ohio Valley while also bringing rain to the South. A drier than normal pattern is otherwise on tap for most of the US to open up February. After a dry start to February, chances will begin to increase for systems from the Pacific to bring rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest during mid-February, especially moving into the third week of the month. These systems will struggle to bring widespread precipitation to the Southwest. The potential for a system or two to track across the South and East will also increase during this time frame. This will bring above normal snow risks to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Wintry risks could expand southward, but it is unlikely to be as significant of an ice threat across the Southeast compared to the storm system in January. This is due to the placement of the trough along the East Coast limiting any attempts for milder air to creep northward. This will be the best opportunity in February for any snow to return to the Southern Plains, though it is unlikely to reach as far south as the January event, nor is it expected to produce as much snow. The Midwest should remain restricted to light snowfall events from clipper systems through the third week of February. The storm track should shift northward over the final week of February. As a result, this late-February period should carry the highest risk of a more organized winter storm impacting the Midwest while the wintry threats diminish in the South and the Mid-Atlantic.