Staying Stormy

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND GULF COAST, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO A CONCERN IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A NOTABLE WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE A COOLING TREND TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

—

EAST: The eastern United States will see a dynamic and unsettled pattern through the forecast period. On Tuesday, a low pressure system tracking across the Northeast will bring rain and thunderstorm activity to the region, with a cold front sweeping through and a warm front lifting northward into eastern Canada. Rain will be widespread across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and into New England, with thunderstorms embedded within the broader precipitation shield. A notable heavy rain and flash flooding threat is highlighted across the Deep South, particularly across portions of the Southeast, where training thunderstorms could produce locally excessive rainfall. This flooding threat deserves close attention and residents in vulnerable areas should monitor conditions carefully.

By Wednesday, the low pressure system pushes offshore, with high pressure building across the central and southern portions of the East. Rain and thunderstorm activity will linger across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, while the Northeast begins to dry out behind the departing system. Rain continues to be noted along the immediate Atlantic coastline. Through Thursday and into Friday, a cold front approaches from the west and eventually pushes through the region, with another round of rain and thunderstorm activity possible across the South and Gulf Coast. A low pressure system will be positioned near the Northeast coast by Friday, maintaining unsettled conditions there with rain continuing. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will remain active with thunderstorms persisting through the end of the week.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal across much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The immediate Northeast, particularly interior New England, will see temperatures running slightly below normal, on the order of 3 to 6 degrees below average, likely associated with the departing low pressure system and cooler post-frontal air. The Mid-Atlantic coast will see modest above-normal readings of around 3 to 6 degrees.

-Days 4-6: The East will trend toward near-normal temperatures for most areas. The Northeast will see readings close to average, while portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast may still run a few degrees above normal early in the period. By Day 6, most anomalies across the East are subtle, with near-normal conditions prevailing. A slight below-normal signal emerges across portions of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of this period.

-Days 7-10: A notable below-normal temperature signal develops across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Southeast as the period progresses. Anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below average are expected across the Carolinas and Virginia corridor, with this signal expanding southward and persisting into the Day 9 and Day 10 timeframe. The Northeast will also trend below normal by the end of the period.

—

CENTRAL: The central United States will be one of the most active areas in the country during this forecast period. A broad and persistent area of rain and thunderstorm activity will be in place across the region, with multiple rounds of heavy precipitation expected. Of particular concern is a significant heavy rain and flash flooding threat across the South Central states, especially across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states. This threat is highlighted prominently and should be considered a primary hazard through the early part of the period. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the South Central region, including areas of the central Gulf Coast states, where the combination of instability and shear could support organized convection capable of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts somewhat, with severe thunderstorm potential noted across portions of the South Central states. Thunderstorm activity will remain widespread across the Central Plains and into the Midwest through much of the period. A low pressure system tracking across the northern Plains will help maintain an active pattern across the North Central states through midweek. By Thursday, a high pressure system settles across the Great Lakes region, helping to quiet conditions there, though thunderstorm activity persists across the southern tier of the central United States. Into Friday, a new cold front begins to push southward through the northern Plains, reintroducing the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the Central Plains.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the central United States will be running well above normal, particularly across the Northern Plains and North Central states. Anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees or more above average are expected across portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. This warmth is quite pronounced and will be a notable feature of the pattern. The South Central states will be closer to normal.

-Days 4-6: The above-normal temperature signal persists and remains focused across the Northern Plains and North Central region, with anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees above average continuing across the Dakotas and into the upper Midwest. The Central Plains will also trend above normal. The South Central states will begin to see a slight below-normal temperature signal emerge by the end of this period, particularly across portions of the southern Plains.

-Days 7-10: The warm anomaly across the Northern Plains gradually weakens but remains present, with above-normal readings of a few degrees persisting across the North Central states. Meanwhile, a notable below-normal temperature signal develops across the South Central region, particularly across the southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast states, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below average becoming established by Days 9 and 10.

—

WEST: The western United States will see an active pattern, particularly across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Intermountain West. On Tuesday, a low pressure system along the Pacific Coast will bring rain and mixed precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, with snow possible at higher elevations across the northern Rockies and Cascades. A cold front extending southward from this system will help focus precipitation along the coast and into the interior Northwest. Rain and thunderstorm activity will be present across portions of the Southwest and into the Great Basin as well. By Wednesday, the low pressure system shifts inland, with rain and mixed precipitation continuing across the Northwest and portions of the northern Rockies. Scattered rain and thunderstorm activity persists across the Southwest.

By Thursday, precipitation coverage across the West decreases somewhat as the system moves eastward, though isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible across the Southwest. Into Friday, a new cold front begins to push into the Pacific Northwest from the north, signaling the approach of another round of precipitation for that region. Rain will continue across portions of the Northwest through the end of the week.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the West will be running above normal across much of the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and into the Great Basin, with anomalies generally in the 3 to 6 degree above-normal range. The Southwest will be near to slightly above normal. By Day 3, a below-normal signal begins to emerge across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below average developing.

-Days 4-6: A significant cooling trend takes hold across the West, particularly across the Southwest, Great Basin, and into the southern Rockies. Below-normal temperature anomalies of 6 to 9 degrees or more below average develop across these areas by Days 4 and 5, representing a notable departure from the warmth seen earlier in the period. The Pacific Northwest will also trend below normal. This below-normal signal is one of the more prominent temperature features of the extended forecast.

-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal across the Southwest and South Central Plains expands and deepens through this period, with anomalies of 6 degrees or more below average persisting across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern Rockies and Great Basin trend back toward above-normal readings by Days 9 and 10, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above average returning to those areas.

—

TROPICAL: The tropical outlook across both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins is quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either basin during the next seven days, and no areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored for potential development. Conditions across the Atlantic and eastern Pacific do not support tropical cyclone formation in the near term.