Showers and Thunderstorms North

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS INCLUDE A BROAD AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, A POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND SNOW AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CONTINUING TO FUEL ACTIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE COUNTRY. WELL-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRIP THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE WEST TRENDS INCREASINGLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEEK’S END.

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**EAST:** A well-organized low pressure system situated near the Northeast coast Wednesday evening will be the focal point for a significant precipitation event across the region. Rain will be widespread from the Mid-Atlantic northward through New England, with a transition to mixed precipitation and snow occurring across interior portions of the Northeast and into northern New England. The threat for accumulating snow and mixed precipitation — including sleet and freezing rain — will be notable across the higher terrain of upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, where hazardous travel conditions are possible. A warm front draped across the region will help maintain a sharp precipitation-type boundary, with rain dominating along the immediate coast and colder precipitation types pushing inland.

By Thursday evening, the low shifts offshore and high pressure begins to build across the region, but precipitation lingers across the Northeast, particularly across northern New England where a mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain will continue. The Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will see rain and thunderstorms pushing through ahead of a cold front sagging southward, with activity extending along the Gulf Coast. Conditions gradually improve from west to east through Friday as the cold front clears the region, though rain and mixed precipitation will persist across portions of the Northeast and Great Lakes into Friday evening.

By Saturday, a new low pressure system developing along the Southeast coast introduces another round of rain and thunderstorm activity along the Eastern Seaboard, particularly from the Carolinas southward through the Gulf Coast. A warm front associated with this system will push moisture northward, while a cold front extends southwestward, helping to focus shower and thunderstorm activity along the coast and offshore. The Northeast will see lingering mixed precipitation and snow across the interior, while the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast see rain and thunderstorms.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal across much of the East, with anomalies of +3 to +6°F common from the Mid-Atlantic through New England. A brief period of below-normal temperatures is possible behind the cold front passage across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 3, with anomalies of -3 to -6°F developing in those areas.

– **Days 4–6:** Below-normal temperatures spread across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with anomalies of -3 to -6°F. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend toward near-normal to slightly below-normal readings as the cold front pushes through. By Day 6, much of the East returns closer to seasonal norms, though the Great Lakes and interior Northeast may remain slightly below average.

– **Days 7–10:** Temperatures across the East largely return to near-normal levels, with only isolated pockets of minor anomalies. No significant cold or warm departures are expected through the end of the period.

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**CENTRAL:** The central United States will be the most active region over the next several days, with multiple hazards converging. On Wednesday evening, a cold front extending from the Central Plains southward into the Gulf Coast will separate warm, moist air to the south and east from a cold airmass to the north and west. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the South Central states, including the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. This severe weather threat is particularly focused across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

By Thursday, the severe weather threat shifts eastward into the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley, where both severe thunderstorms and heavy rain with flash flooding potential will be significant concerns. Rainfall rates could be high enough to produce dangerous flash flooding across these areas, and residents should remain alert to rapidly changing conditions. Meanwhile, mixed precipitation — including snow — will continue across the Central Rockies and into portions of the Central Plains, where heavy snow remains possible at higher elevations.

As the week progresses into Friday and Saturday, a new low pressure system develops across the Central Plains, drawing moisture northward and continuing to fuel rain and thunderstorm activity from the South Central states into the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, with heavy rainfall remaining a concern. Farther north, rain and snow will continue across the Northern Plains and into the upper Midwest as the cold airmass persists.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** A significant cold anomaly will dominate the Central United States, with temperatures running 6 to 12°F or more below normal across the Central and Northern Plains, the upper Midwest, and into the Central Rockies. The most extreme departures — exceeding 12°F below normal — will be focused across portions of the Central Plains and Colorado by Day 3. Meanwhile, the South Central states will see near-normal to slightly above-normal readings ahead of the frontal boundary.

– **Days 4–6:** Below-normal temperatures persist across the Central and Northern Plains and into the Midwest, though the anomalies moderate somewhat, generally ranging from -3 to -6°F. The South Central region trends toward near-normal readings as the frontal system pushes eastward. By Day 6, the Central region begins a gradual return toward seasonal norms.

– **Days 7–10:** Temperatures across the Central states trend back toward near-normal to slightly above-normal levels, particularly across the South Central region and Central Plains. Only isolated pockets of minor below-normal anomalies linger across the northern tier by the end of the period.

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**WEST:** The West will see an active pattern early in the period, with a frontal system and associated low pressure bringing rain and thunderstorms to the Pacific Northwest and snow to the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies and Cascades on Wednesday. Mixed precipitation, including snow, will extend into the interior Northwest and portions of the Northern Rockies. By Thursday, precipitation activity shifts into the Northern Rockies and interior Northwest, with rain and thunderstorms continuing along the Pacific coast and snow at higher elevations. The Central Rockies and Four Corners region will also see mixed precipitation, including the potential for snow at elevation, as a separate disturbance tracks through the region.

By Friday and into the weekend, the active pattern across the Northwest begins to wind down as high pressure builds in from the north. Precipitation chances diminish across much of the West, though isolated showers and mountain snow will remain possible across the Northern Rockies and Cascades. The remainder of the West, including California and the Desert Southwest, will be largely dry through the period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** The Pacific Northwest will see a notable split, with the immediate coastal areas running above normal by +6 to +12°F, while the interior Northwest and Northern Rockies experience below-normal temperatures, with anomalies of -6 to -12°F in some locations. California and the Desert Southwest will be near to slightly below normal early, with some areas running 3 to 6°F below average.

– **Days 4–6:** A warming trend takes hold across much of the West, with above-normal temperatures expanding across California, the Great Basin, and into the Desert Southwest. Anomalies of +3 to +9°F will be common across these areas by Days 5 and 6. The Pacific Northwest transitions from below-normal to near-normal and then above-normal readings as the pattern shifts.

– **Days 7–10:** Above-normal temperatures become increasingly dominant across the West, with widespread anomalies of +6 to +12°F or greater across California, Nevada, Arizona, and into the Intermountain West. This warming trend is expected to persist and intensify through the end of the 10-day period, with the Desert Southwest and Great Basin seeing the most pronounced above-normal departures.

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**TROPICAL:** The tropical weather outlook across both the Atlantic basin and the eastern Pacific basin indicates no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days. There are no active storms, no areas of disturbed weather being monitored for development, and no disturbances of concern at this time. The tropics remain quiet across both basins.