Rain/Snow Showers Northwest Continues

General Overview: SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST AND ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

EAST:
A relatively quiet weather pattern will prevail across much of the Eastern region through the weekend, with precipitation gradually increasing by Sunday into early next week. Rain will develop across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states by Sunday evening, spreading northward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast by Monday. No severe weather is expected in the eastern states, though some moderate rainfall amounts are possible, particularly across the Southeast by Sunday night into Monday. The precipitation will be primarily rain, with no frozen precipitation expected across the region during this period.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Generally near to slightly below normal temperatures across much of the region, with departures of 2-6°F below normal, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Southeast.

-Days 4-6: Cooling trend continues with below normal temperatures spreading across most of the Eastern Seaboard, with anomalies of 3-6°F below normal, especially across the Southeast states.

-Days 7-10: Below normal temperatures persist across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, gradually moderating by day 10. Florida and the coastal Southeast will experience the most persistent cool anomalies of 4-6°F below normal.

CENTRAL:
A significant weather system will impact the Central region through the weekend, with multiple hazards expected. A low pressure system over the South Central states will bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms from eastern Texas through Arkansas, Louisiana, and into portions of Missouri. Flash flooding is possible in these areas, with the greatest risk on Saturday. Additionally, there is potential for severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas and Louisiana, with all severe hazards possible. By Sunday, the system will shift eastward, with rain and thunderstorms continuing across the Mississippi Valley. Another system will develop in the Northern Plains by Monday, bringing rain to the Dakotas and Minnesota, with precipitation spreading southward through the Central Plains by midweek.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures across the Northern Plains, with cooler than normal conditions across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend across the Northern Plains with temperatures 4-8°F above normal, while the Southern Plains return to near normal.

-Days 7-10: Above normal temperatures expand across most of the Central region, with the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest experiencing the warmest anomalies of 6-10°F above normal.

WEST:
An active pattern will continue across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with multiple systems bringing precipitation to these regions. Mixed precipitation, including snow at higher elevations, will affect Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana through the weekend. Several areas of low pressure will move through the region, maintaining periods of precipitation. The Southwest will remain largely dry, with high pressure dominating across Arizona and southern California. By early next week, a new system will approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing another round of precipitation to the region.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across much of the West, particularly in the Intermountain West where anomalies will range from 4-8°F above normal. The Pacific Northwest will see more moderate warm anomalies.

-Days 4-6: Continued above normal temperatures across most of the region, with the warmest anomalies shifting toward the Southwest and Great Basin.

-Days 7-10: Widespread above normal temperatures persist across the Western states, with anomalies of 6-10°F above normal across portions of the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West.

TROPICAL:
Hurricane Melissa is currently located in the Caribbean Sea. The system is expected to continue moving through the Caribbean over the next several days. Additionally, a tropical depression designated as Eighteen-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. Both systems should be monitored closely for potential impacts. No immediate threats to the U.S. mainland are indicated at this time, though interests in the Caribbean should remain alert for Hurricane Melissa’s progression.