OPEC Sees USGC Refining Margins Under Pressure Near Term

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are expected to face continued pressure on margins in the near term, although the upcoming spring maintenance season could provide some relief, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its February monthly report released Wednesday (2/11).

The USGC gasoline crack spread against WTI increased 72cts month-on-month to reach an average of $24.42 bbl in January, while remaining $4.00 higher than the same period of last year.

Severe weather-related operational disruptions likely contributed to the decline in refinery output, partially offsetting demand-side weakness in U.S. gasoline markets, OPEC stated.

“Going forward, in line with seasonal trends, the gasoline market will remain under pressure; however, the upcoming spring maintenance season could limit the downside,” OPEC said in its report.

While heavy crude imports into the U.S. were expected to grow in 2026, actual Venezuelan output —a key source of heavy crude required by Gulf Coast refiners —dropped by 87,000 bpd month-on-month to average 830,000 bpd in January, according to secondary sources monitored by OPEC.

This supply shift contributed to a “lengthening balance” in the residual fuel market, where the USGC high sulfur fuel oil crack spread against WTI dropped by $2.06 bbl in January.

Despite the production drop in Venezuela, OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million bpd. Combined crude oil production by the Declaration of Cooperation participants — the group of 12 OPEC members and 10 allied producers known as OPEC+ — fell by 439,000 bpd to  42.45 million bpd in January.

The report also maintained the global demand growth forecast for 2027 at 1.3 million bpd