OPEC Flips View to Q3 Surplus on U.S. Output Growth

VIENNA (DTN) — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimated that the global oil market was oversupplied in the third quarter as a result of growing U.S. production, according to its latest monthly oil market report released Wednesday (11/12) morning.

OPEC’s November report pegged the global surplus at 500,000 bpd in the third quarter of the year, a 900,000-bpd swing from its estimate a month earlier. Global oil inventories have increased by 304 million bbl in the first nine months of 2025, the report stated.

Oil stocks within the Organization for Economic Co-operation (OECD) expanded by 90 million bbl, while non-OECD inventories by 62 million bbl in the January to September period. Oil on water, meanwhile, climbed by 156 million bbl.

In the OECD Americas region, crude oil inventories expanded by 12 million bbl due to year-on-year drop in refining activity. Oil product stockpiles grew by 46 million bbl. The swelling of product inventories in the Americas was entirely concentrated in the second and third quarters.

U.S. liquids production at 22.81 million bpd in the third quarter, up from 22.43 million bpd quarter on quarter, and pegged the average U.S. production growth rate in 2025 at 410,000 bpd. Production growth is expected to slow markedly in 2026, however, it is expected to reach at 100,000 bpd, with Brazil and Canada overtaking the U.S. in the top non-OPEC production growth ranking.

OPEC’s monthly report left global oil demand growth forecasts for this and next year unchanged at 1.3 million bpd and 1.38 million bpd, respectively, but lowered forecasted demand for OPEC crude oil by 100,000 bpd for both this year and next to annual growth rates of 300,000 bpd in 2025 and 600,000 bpd in 2026. Demand forecasts for OPEC crude oil are based on the difference between expected non-OPEC supply and global oil demand.

Refining margins improved across all regions last month, driven by lower processing rates and lower crude prices. Middle distillate cracks fared particularly well. On the U.S. Gulf Coast, refining margins reached a 19-month high in October as tight product balances and low inventories led to gains for middle distillates and heavier products.

In contrast, the outlook for U.S. gasoline softened amid seasonally lower demand and the switch to winter-grade gasoline resulting in higher gasoline yields. Cracks for light products fared less well than for middle and heavy distillates, despite a significant decline in gasoline stocks in October.