Oil Futures Steady, Amid Supply Glut, OPEC+ Meeting Outlook

HOUSTON, TX (DTN) — Oil futures prices were little changed in the first trading session of the year on Friday (01/02), as concerns over a global oversupplied market offset caution ahead of an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for the weekend.

The eight key member countries of oil producing alliance OPEC+ are set to meet on January 4.

In the final quarter of 2025, the group agreed to raise production by 137,000 bpd for November, matching October’s increase, as producers sought to defend market share for their exports. Analysts anticipate OPEC+ to gradually lift output further this year, a move that could push prices below $50 bbl.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has warned that the oil market could face a record surplus of 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by rising output from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

Traders are also monitoring developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has entered its fourth year. Sanctions on Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian crude are expected to continue adding downward pressure to global oil markets, as millions of barrels continue remaining stranded at sea.    

Abundant supplies and weak global demand sent both WTI and Brent crude to their lowest levels in more than five years, with prices down  about 19% over the year.

The NYMEX WTI futures contract for February delivery fell by $0.15 to $57.27 bbl, and front-month ICE Brent futures contract price edged down by $0.12 to $60.73 bbl.  February RBOB gasoline futures slid by $0.0159 to $1.6991 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract decreased by $0.0073 to $2.1142 gallon.

In contrast, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.123 points to 98.170 against a currency basket.