DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend in most-active corn futures is revised to higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 440,915 contracts as of Aug. 25, record length for late August. Traders were net-buyers of 138,773 contracts as bullish momentum picked up on lower U.S. yield forecasts as well as Black Sea grain supplies being cutoff by recent attacks against shipping infrastructure.  

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 374,608 contracts as of Aug. 25 and were net-sellers of 129,008 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The December 2026 contract is priced 14 3/4 cents lower than the March 2027 contract, strengthening (less carry) through the week for the fourth straight week, and perhaps a sign of growing concern over new-crop corn supplies. National average corn basis firmed 3 cents through the past week to 49 cents under the December board. However, this is still the second weakest basis of the past decade for late August.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front-month (December) corn futures contract finished the most recent week at the 34th percentile, rising 6 points through the week to the highest ranking within the five-year range since April of 2025.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (December) corn contract jumped to 15% after prices traded sharply higher through the week for the third straight week, while closing outside the upper bound of the volatility implied price range ($5.32).