DTN Wheat Analysis and Recommendations
09/01/2026
New Recommendations: The most recent recommendation was made on April 16, 2026. See Detailed Positions below.
Daily Note
December Chicago wheat rose 8 1/2 cents on large fund buying and settled at $7.82 1/2, supported again by more Black Sea attacks on grain structures and ports. December KC rose 7 1/4 cents on the same news and on weaker volume to finish at $8.45 1/4 after setting a new contract high. Both winter wheat markets are still in an upward trend.
Current Assessment
Winter wheat futures soared in the past week on the escalating conflict in the Black Sea and its impact on Russian and Ukraine wheat exports. Chicago December finished 84 3/4 cents higher for the week with KC December up another 71 3/4 cents on the week. Wheat remains in a bull trend as Russia and Ukraine are typically responsible for 30% of world wheat trade. Chicago wheat and KC wheat markets are neutral, Type 3 markets.
Positions:
2025-26: Forward sold another 25% of 2026-27 winter wheat production on April 16, 2026 with July 2026 Kansas City futures near $6.60 and July 2026 Chicago futures near $6.15. 25% of 2026 wheat production remains unsold/unhedged at this time.
Marketing Recommendations
*Note Regarding 2025-26 Crop Sales*: In December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with wheat producers receiving $39.35 per planted acre, or approximately $0.90 per bushel based on the 2025 national average wheat yield of 53.3 bushels per harvested acre, and 82% national average harvest ratio.
Summary:
2026-27: 75% sold on 2026 winter wheat production at a futures price average of $6.06 for hard red and $5.82 for soft red. 25% of 2026 winter wheat production remains unsold/unhedged.
Detailed Positions:
2026-27:
On April 16, 2026, sold another 25% of 2026 winter wheat production with July Kansas City futures near $6.60 and July Chicago futures near $6.15.
On Feb. 19, 2026, sold another 25% of 2026 winter wheat production with July Kansas City futures near $5.86 and July Chicago futures near $5.74.
On Feb. 18, 2026, sold the first 25% of new crop 2026 HRW and SRW. At the time of the recommendation, July KC futures were near $5.71 and Chicago July futures are near $5.58.