DTN Soybean Meal Six Factors

TREND: The trend in July soybean meal futures is revised to sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean meal traders held a net-long futures position of 85,604 contracts as of June 9, and were net-sellers of 70,583 contracts through the CFTC reporting period.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-short position in soymeal futures of 109,770 contracts for the week ending June 9, buying back 65,873 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. July meal is priced $0.90 below the August contract, a spread which weakened again this week while flipping to a carry structure. A sign of covered demand through mid-summer and/or comfortable supplies. Meanwhile, cash meal prices in Illinois are trading well above the nearby futures board, still a strong sign of domestic demand for U.S. meal.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean meal prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the most recent week, most active (July) soybean meal futures fell to the 15th percentile, a very inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility in most active (July) meal futures rose this week to 6%, with prices trading lower on the week and closing below the lower bound of the implied volatility range ($302.50).