DTN Soybean Meal Six Factors

TREND: The trend in soybean meal futures is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean meal traders held a net-long futures position of 120,971 contracts as of August 25, and were net-buyers of 4,074 contracts through the CFTC reporting period.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-short position in soymeal futures of 143,802 contracts for the week ending August 25, selling 2,722 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. October meal closed the most recent week priced $6.30 below the December contract, a spread which widened (increased carry) through the most recent week and to the highest degree of carry between the contracts through their trading lives. A sign of ample supply to meet demand through late summer. Meanwhile, cash meal prices in Illinois are trading near even with the most active futures board — with basis relaxing through the late summer as demand has been covered.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean meal prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the most recent week, most active (December) soybean meal futures rose 9 points to the 34th percentile, a sharp weekly jump and the highest ranking within the five-year range since mid-2024, though still within the lower half of observed prices.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility in most active (December) meal futures closed the most recent week at 8%, a 1-point increase through the week with prices higher for the third straight week.