Warm North
Above average temperatures are likely to continue across Michigan, with other areas remaining near average.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
EAST:
A cold front is currently sweeping through the Northeast, bringing rain and thunderstorms to portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Rain is occurring across portions of the Northeast and Southeast coastlines, with thunderstorm activity extending across the Southeast and into the Gulf Coast states. As the cold front progresses eastward and offshore through Tuesday, rain and thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and along the Gulf Coast. A low pressure system near the Southeast coast will help maintain shower and thunderstorm activity across the Carolinas and Georgia into Tuesday. By Wednesday, the cold front will have pushed offshore, but a lingering boundary will keep thunderstorms active across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states, with rain continuing along portions of the Northeast coastline. Thunderstorm activity will remain widespread across the Southeast through Thursday and into Friday, with rain also expected across portions of the Great Lakes region. By Friday, a developing area of low pressure will bring a notable increase in rain and thunderstorm activity to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, with rain spreading into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as well.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will run above normal across the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal in portions of the upper Great Lakes and into southern Canada. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be near to slightly above normal. A small area of below-normal temperatures is noted across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Day 2.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, though the anomalies will gradually moderate. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will trend toward near-normal conditions.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the East will trend toward near-normal to slightly above-normal conditions, with only modest warm anomalies remaining across portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
CENTRAL:
Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the central and southern Plains, the Mississippi Valley, and into the western Gulf Coast states. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of Texas and the adjacent Gulf Coast region through Tuesday, with a well-defined area of heavy rain and flash flood potential highlighted over eastern Texas and into Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region on Tuesday. A high pressure system over the central Plains will help keep conditions drier across the Midwest and northern Plains during the first part of the forecast period. By Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorm activity will continue across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, while the central Plains remain relatively quiet. A low pressure system over the central Rockies will help maintain shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of the southern Plains and into the central Gulf Coast through the end of the week.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the northern Plains will run well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. Meanwhile, temperatures across Oklahoma and into portions of Texas will run below normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below normal. The remainder of the central region will be near to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the northern Plains, though the magnitude will gradually decrease. Below-normal temperatures will continue across Texas and Oklahoma, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below normal persisting through this period.
-Days 7-10: The temperature pattern across the Central region will trend toward near-normal conditions for most areas, with only isolated pockets of modest above-normal anomalies remaining across portions of the northern Plains.
WEST:
Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest, and into portions of the Southwest during the first part of the forecast period. Multiple low pressure systems are influencing the region, with one centered over the Pacific Northwest, one over the Great Basin, and another over southern California and the Desert Southwest. These systems are producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. Rain is also occurring along portions of the Pacific Coast. By Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will continue across the Intermountain West and into the northern Rockies, with rain persisting along the Pacific Coast and into the Pacific Northwest. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest and into the southern Rockies through Thursday and Friday, while the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will also see continued precipitation.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the West will run above normal, particularly across the northern Rockies and into Montana, where anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal are expected. Portions of California and the Great Basin will also be above normal. The Southwest will be near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and into the Great Basin, though the anomalies will gradually moderate. Southern California will see some above-normal readings as well.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will become increasingly confined to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with much of the remainder of the West trending toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period.
TROPICAL:
No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the Eastern Pacific, however, several areas of disturbed weather are being monitored for potential development. A disturbance located near 10°N in the eastern Pacific, close to the coast of Mexico and Central America, has a high probability — greater than 60% — of developing into a named storm over the next seven days. Two additional disturbances are being tracked in the central Pacific, one near Hawaii with a low chance of development and another farther east with a low chance of development as well. A fourth disturbance is located well to the west-southwest of Hawaii, with a 40 to 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days. None of these disturbances are anticipated to impact the contiguous US.