Trending Above Seasonal

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRONG STORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENRTAL AND SOUTHEAST US. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EASE LATE THIS WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE WEST TRANSITIONS FROM BELOW-NORMAL TO WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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EAST: A low pressure system situated near the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday evening is driving a warm front northward through the Northeast and a cold front sweeping southward through the region. Rain will be widespread across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and much of the Northeast, with mixed precipitation — including snow — pushing into the interior Northeast and northern New England. The Northeast corridor is seeing rain, while areas farther inland and at higher elevations are experiencing a wintry mix or snow. By Thursday evening, the storm system has shifted offshore, but its influence continues to bring rain and mixed precipitation to coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic, with lingering snow and mixed precipitation across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. A low pressure center is positioned near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with an occluded front and cold front extending southward and eastward into the Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm activity continues across the Southeast and Carolinas as moisture streams northward ahead of the frontal system.

By Friday evening, a new low pressure system develops near the Gulf Coast and begins tracking northeastward, spreading rain across a large portion of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Northeast. Rain is widespread from the Gulf Coast through the Carolinas and northward. A high pressure system offshore helps funnel moisture into the region. Into Saturday, this coastal low becomes better organized off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front sweeping through the Southeast. Rain and thunderstorms persist along and ahead of the frontal boundaries from the Gulf Coast through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Portions of northern New England continue to see mixed precipitation and snow. The Great Lakes region sees lingering rain and mixed precipitation throughout much of the period.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1–3: Temperatures across the Northeast start out near to slightly above normal, with readings running 6 to locally more than 12°F above average across portions of northern New England and the northern Northeast corridor early in the period. The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley trend toward near-normal to slightly below-normal readings as the cold front pushes through. By Day 3, the eastern U.S. is largely near normal.

– Days 4–6: Below-normal temperatures begin to take hold across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with anomalies of 6 to locally 12°F below average. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend cooler as well, with readings running 6 to 12°F below normal by Days 5–6, particularly across the Deep South and Southeast.

– Days 7–10: The below-normal temperature signal across the eastern U.S. largely diminishes, with most of the region trending back toward near-normal readings. The Gulf Coast region may still see some lingering below-normal anomalies early in this window.

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CENTRAL: Wednesday brings the most significant and dangerous weather of the entire forecast period to the South Central region. Severe thunderstorms are expected across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Additionally, heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across this same region, with rainfall rates capable of producing dangerous flooding. Farther north, a broad area of rain will extend from the Northern Plains southward through the Central Plains and into the central Rockies. 

By Thursday, the South Central region continues to see rain and thunderstorm activity, although the severe weather threat will be diminished compared to Wednesday. Areas of rain will continue across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest as cold air filters in behind the departing storm system. By Friday, a new low pressure system develops near the Gulf Coast, bringing rain and thunderstorms back into the South Central region, with heavy rain and flash flooding once again possible across portions of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. The Central Plains see a gradual drying trend as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Into Saturday, the central United States sees a period of relative quiet as high pressure dominates the Central Plains. Scattered rain and thunderstorm activity continues near the Gulf Coast and along the frontal boundaries to the south and east.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1–3: A significant cold anomaly is entrenched across the Northern Plains and Central Plains, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12°F below normal across the Dakotas and Nebraska. This cold air gradually expands southward through the period. The South Central region starts out above normal, with anomalies of 6°F or more above average across Texas and surrounding areas, before temperatures tumble behind the cold front passage. By Day 3, below-normal readings are widespread from the Central Plains southward into the Southern Plains, with some areas running 6 to 12°F or more below average.

– Days 4–6: The cold anomaly deepens and expands across the Central and Southern Plains, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12°F below normal across a broad area from the Central Plains southward through Texas and into the South Central states. This represents a significant cold outbreak for late April/early May, and the below-normal signal is pronounced through this entire period.

– Days 7–10: The cold anomaly across the central U.S. gradually moderates and contracts, becoming focused mainly across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest by the end of the period, with anomalies of 6 to locally 12°F below normal. The Southern Plains and South Central region trend back toward near-normal readings.

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WEST: The Northwest and northern Rockies will see an active weather pattern early in the period. Rain and mountain snow will impact portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, with rain and thunderstorm activity also present across the region. Scattered rain and thunderstorm activity is noted across portions of the Intermountain West and Southwest as well, with some snow at higher elevations in the Rockies. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains, where strong winds and low relative humidity are expected in the wake of frontal passages.

By Thursday, the precipitation focus shifts, with mixed precipitation continuing across portions of the northern and central Rockies, including snow and a wintry mix at higher elevations. The Northwest sees some lingering precipitation before a brief drying trend. By Friday, the weather pattern across the West becomes less active, with only isolated precipitation noted across the Pacific Northwest and the higher terrain of the Rockies. A new low pressure system develops over the northern Rockies/High Plains, which may bring some precipitation to the region. Into Saturday, the West is largely quiet, with only scattered precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and isolated mountain showers in the Rockies.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1–3: The West is largely near normal to slightly above normal during the early part of the period. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies see near-normal readings, while the Southwest and California are slightly above normal, with anomalies of around 3 to 6°F above average.

– Days 4–6: A significant warming trend develops across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with temperatures surging to 6 to more than 12°F above normal across portions of the Pacific Northwest by Days 5–6. This above-normal signal is pronounced and expands southward through the Intermountain West. The Southwest remains near to slightly above normal.

– Days 7–10: The well-above-normal temperature anomaly across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies persists and remains prominent, with readings running 6 to more than 12°F above average. The above-normal signal gradually expands southward and eastward across the West, though the Southwest and southern portions of the region trend back toward near-normal readings.

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TROPICAL: The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are currently quiet, with no tropical cyclone activity expected during the next seven days.