Showers Near the Lakes

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. TROPICAL STORM MELISSA CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN.

EAST:  A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected across much of the eastern United States over the next few days. High pressure will dominate the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions today, bringing generally fair conditions. Light rain will develop across portions of the Great Lakes and into New England, with some mixed precipitation possible in northern areas. By the weekend, a cold front will approach from the west, bringing increasing chances for rain along the eastern seaboard. The Southeast will remain largely dry until later in the period when moisture from the Gulf begins to spread northward.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Slightly below normal temperatures across much of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with readings 3-6°F below average. Near normal temperatures elsewhere in the region.

-Days 4-6: Temperatures trending closer to normal across most of the region, with slightly below normal readings persisting in parts of the Northeast.

-Days 7-10: A cooling trend developing across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states with temperatures 3-6°F below normal. Near normal temperatures returning to the Northeast.

CENTRAL:  An active weather pattern will dominate the Central Plains and South Central regions. Today, a weather system intensifies with heavy rain and flash flooding potential developing across eastern Texas and Oklahoma. The severe weather threat will expand, particularly across eastern Texas where strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. As the system moves eastward on Saturday, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns shift into Louisiana, while rain and thunderstorms continue across portions of the Central Plains. Multiple low pressure systems and frontal boundaries will interact to maintain precipitation chances through the weekend.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across Texas and the Southern Plains, with readings 3-6°F above average. Below normal temperatures across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend across the Northern Plains with temperatures 6-9°F above normal in the Dakotas and Montana. Near normal temperatures elsewhere.

-Days 7-10: Continued above normal temperatures across the Northern Plains, gradually moderating by the end of the period. Near normal temperatures returning to most other areas.

WEST:  A series of Pacific systems will bring periods of precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Mixed precipitation, including snow at higher elevations, will affect Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana. Multiple high pressure systems will dominate the Southwest, keeping conditions generally dry across California, Nevada, and Arizona. By the weekend, an occluded front will approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing another round of precipitation to the region. The pattern remains fairly consistent through the period with continued chances for rain and mountain snow across the northern tier of the western states.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies, with readings 3-6°F above average. Near normal temperatures along the Pacific Coast.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend continuing across the interior West with temperatures 3-6°F above normal. Below normal temperatures developing in the Pacific Northwest.

-Days 7-10: Above normal temperatures expanding across most of the Western states, with readings 3-6°F above average, particularly in the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

TROPICAL: 
ATLANTIC: Tropical Storm Melissa remains on track to linger near Jamaica, steadily intensifying into a major hurricane. The system will start to track north towards Cuba by early next week.

EAST PACIFIC: A tropical wave remains forecast to develop well offshore the coast of Mexico. It will stay offshore and continue to track westward, likely to continue developing into a tropical system.