Normal For Most

GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THAT SAME REGION. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WEST WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH SOME POCKETS OF BELOW-NORMAL READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

EAST:

Rain and thunderstorms are currently affecting a broad swath of the eastern United States, with activity stretching from the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley southward through the Southeast and along the eastern Gulf Coast. A cold front is pushing through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, bringing rain and thunderstorms to those areas as well, with activity extending offshore. Thunderstorm coverage is widespread across the Carolinas, Virginia, and into the Mid-Atlantic region along and ahead of this frontal boundary. A low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic coast is helping to focus precipitation in that region. As the forecast progresses into Thursday and Friday, rain and thunderstorm activity will continue across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes region will help maintain shower and thunderstorm coverage across the eastern Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Rain will be widespread from the Great Lakes southward through the Appalachians and into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. By Friday, a cold front will push offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a low pressure center near the coast helping to maintain thunderstorm activity along the Southeast coast and into Florida and the Bahamas. By the weekend, a low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes will continue to drive rain and thunderstorm activity across the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast and New England. Rain will be widespread across the Northeast, with thunderstorms possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A warm front and cold front combination will be positioned near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with thunderstorm activity continuing in that region.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across most of the East. Modest above-normal anomalies are noted across the Carolinas and portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Day 1, with near-normal conditions across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. By Day 3, near-normal conditions prevail across most of the East, with a slight above-normal signal lingering in the Carolinas.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures will be near normal across most of the East through this period. A slight above-normal signal is noted in the Carolinas and portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4. Conditions trend toward near normal by Days 5 and 6, with a small below-normal signal possible in portions of the Northeast on Day 6.
-Days 7-10: A below-normal temperature signal develops across portions of the Ohio Valley and into the lower Great Lakes region by Days 7 and 8, with near-normal conditions returning across the broader East by Days 9 and 10.

CENTRAL:

Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the central United States during the first day of the forecast, with a particularly significant threat of heavy rain and flash flooding focused across portions of Iowa, Missouri, and into Illinois and Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across this same region, centered over Iowa, Missouri, and into Illinois. A cold front extends from the northern Plains southward through the central Plains, with low pressure systems positioned over Nebraska and Oklahoma helping to organize convection. Thunderstorm activity is also present across portions of the central and southern Plains, including Kansas, Oklahoma, and into Arkansas and Missouri. By Wednesday into Thursday, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts southward and eastward, with the primary area of concern moving into portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Severe thunderstorms remain possible across this region as well. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across the central Plains, with a warm front draped across the northern Plains and a low pressure system over Oklahoma helping to maintain moisture and lift. Thunderstorm activity will also be ongoing across portions of the western Gulf Coast region. As the period progresses into Friday and the weekend, thunderstorm activity will continue across the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. A high pressure system over the central Plains will help to suppress activity in the northern and central Plains, though scattered thunderstorms will persist across the southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast states. By Saturday, thunderstorm activity will be ongoing across portions of the central Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a low pressure system over the south-central states helping to focus precipitation.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be below normal across Montana and the northern Plains on Day 1, with above-normal readings across portions of the southern Plains, including Oklahoma and Kansas, and into Arkansas and Missouri. By Day 2, the below-normal signal expands across the Dakotas and into South Dakota, while above-normal temperatures persist across the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. By Day 3, a below-normal signal develops across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, while above-normal temperatures continue across the southern Plains and into Arkansas and Missouri.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures will be near to above normal across the southern Plains through this period. Above-normal readings are expected across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas on Days 4 and 5. By Day 6, a below-normal signal develops across portions of Nebraska and into Iowa, while above-normal temperatures persist across the southern Plains.
-Days 7-10: A below-normal temperature signal is noted across portions of the central Plains, including Nebraska and Iowa, on Days 7 and 8, while above-normal readings persist across the southern Plains and into Texas. By Days 9 and 10, temperatures trend toward near to slightly above normal across much of the central region, with above-normal readings continuing across the southern Plains.

WEST:

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be ongoing across portions of the Intermountain West and Southwest during the first day of the forecast, associated with multiple low pressure systems over the region. Low pressure centers are positioned over California, Arizona, and New Mexico, helping to drive monsoon moisture and convection across the Desert Southwest and into the southern Rockies. Rain and thunderstorms are scattered across portions of Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The Pacific Northwest will see some light rain activity along the coast, while the interior Northwest remains relatively quiet. Through Thursday and Friday, scattered thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest and into the southern Rockies, with low pressure systems persisting over the region. The Pacific Northwest will see some light rain activity, particularly along the coast and into the Cascades. By Friday, thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest, with a low pressure system over southern California helping to maintain moisture. Scattered rain and thunderstorms will also be present across portions of the central Rockies and into the southern Plains. By the weekend, thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest and into the southern Rockies, with scattered activity also possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest. The overall pattern will remain active across the Southwest through the end of the forecast period.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be above normal across portions of the Pacific Coast, Great Basin, and Southwest on Day 1, with above-normal readings across California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. By Day 2, above-normal temperatures continue across the Pacific Coast and into the Great Basin and Southwest. By Day 3, above-normal readings expand across much of the West, including the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest, with the above-normal signal becoming more widespread.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will be widespread across the West through this period, particularly across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. The above-normal signal is strongest across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and into Nevada and Utah on Days 4 and 5. By Day 6, above-normal temperatures continue across the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin, with the signal gradually diminishing across the Southwest.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will persist across portions of the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin and Southwest through Days 7 and 8, though the anomalies will be more modest. By Days 9 and 10, temperatures trend toward near to slightly above normal across much of the West, with above-normal readings confined mainly to portions of the Pacific Coast and Southwest.

TROPICAL:

No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Lala is currently positioned northwest of Hawaii. Two disturbances are being monitored in the eastern Pacific: one located in the central Pacific with a 50% chance of development over the next seven days, and another disturbance situated off the coast of Mexico with a 70% chance of development over the next seven days.