Dry North, Showers South
Dry conditions remain dominant across northern portions of the region, with increased scattered to isolated showers across southern portions of the region.
General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST, AND HURRICANE MELISSA IN THE CARIBBEAN. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US BRINGING RAIN TO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
EAST: A frontal boundary will bring rain and thunderstorms to much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions through the early part of the week. Areas from the Carolinas through Georgia, Alabama, and Florida will experience periods of rain and possible thunderstorms. By midweek, the precipitation will shift eastward as a low pressure system develops off the Atlantic coast. The Northeast will remain relatively dry initially, but light rain may develop along coastal areas by Tuesday into Wednesday. As the week progresses, a cold front will push through the region bringing cooler temperatures and scattered showers. The Mid-Atlantic states will see increasing rain chances and winds by Thursday as the frontal system moves through.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Slightly below normal temperatures across much of the region, particularly along the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Near normal temperatures in the interior sections.
-Days 4-6: Cooling trend continues with below normal temperatures spreading across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. The Northeast returns to near normal.
-Days 7-10: Below normal temperatures persist across the Southeast and coastal areas, gradually moderating by day 10. The Northeast will experience near to slightly above normal temperatures.
CENTRAL: A cold front will push through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest early in the period, bringing rain to the Dakotas and Minnesota. As this system progresses southeastward, rain will spread across the Central Plains into the Midwest by Monday and Tuesday. Some mixed precipitation is possible in the northern portions of this region where colder air is present. By midweek, a developing low pressure system will bring more widespread precipitation to the Central and Southern Plains, with rain extending from Texas northward through Oklahoma and into the Midwest. The Mississippi Valley will see increasing rain chances by Wednesday into Thursday as the system moves eastward. High pressure will build in behind the front, bringing drier conditions to the Northern Plains by late week.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with near normal temperatures elsewhere in the region.
-Days 4-6: Cooling trend with below normal temperatures spreading across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Near normal temperatures elsewhere.
-Days 7-10: Gradual warming trend with above normal temperatures returning to the Northern and Central Plains, while the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley moderate to near normal.
WEST: An active pattern will bring mixed precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Areas of rain and mountain snow will affect Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana. Several high pressure systems across the Southwest will keep conditions generally dry across California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico initially. By Monday into Tuesday, a developing low pressure system in the Southwest will bring increasing precipitation chances to parts of Colorado and New Mexico. The Pacific Northwest will continue to see periods of rain and mountain snow throughout the week. By late week, drier conditions will spread across much of the region as high pressure builds in, though some precipitation may linger in the northern areas.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Near normal temperatures along the Pacific Coast.
-Days 4-6: Continued above normal temperatures across the Southwest and Great Basin, with near normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.
-Days 7-10: Warming trend with above normal temperatures spreading across most of the Western region, particularly in the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West.
TROPICAL: Hurricane Melissa is currently located in the Caribbean Sea. The system is expected to continue moving northward in the coming days. Additionally, Tropical Storm Sonia is present in the eastern Pacific, well off the coast of Mexico. Both systems should be monitored closely for potential impacts as they progress along their forecast tracks.