Analysis: Gasoline Stocks Dip as Refiners Shift to Jet Fuel

VIENNA (DTN) – Nationwide gasoline stockpiles have dropped to their seasonally lowest since 2012, U.S. Energy Information Administration data released last week showed.

Total gasoline inventories as of July 3 stood at 212.06 million bbl, marking a fourteen-year low for the corresponding reporting week. They were trailing both year-ago levels and the five-year seasonal average by more than 7% and were over 9% below the ten-year seasonal average.

The main driver behind depleted stockpiles was an unprecedented draw pace throughout April and most of May. Refined product exports soared amid the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, while domestic refiners optimized operations to maximize jet fuel production. Jet fuel was the product most affected by the disruption and consequently the one fetching the highest margins.

Gasoline inventories recorded eight consecutive weekly draws during April and May, culminating in a 29.27 million bbl decline, meaning they shrank at a rate of 523,000 bpd, three to four times as fast as the typical seasonal decline. In April alone, they fell by some 18.56 million bbl. Simultaneously, gasoline exports clocked in at 868,000 bpd, up 111,000 bpd, or nearly 15%, year-on-year.

During the same time, domestic jet-fuel production rocketed to record levels, at the expense of gasoline output. Kerosene-type jet fuel output was up more than 9%, or some 170,000 bpd, year-on-year during these two months, while refiner production of gasoline was 90,000 bpd below year-ago levels despite higher run rates.

The shift, combined with the renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East, is set to keep gasoline inventories seasonally tight even as refiners ramp up operations to meet summer driving demand. Over the past four weeks, finished motor gasoline production was down 117,000 bpd year-on-year, while jet fuel production registered a 210,000-bpd increase compared to the same period in 2025.