Above Normal Today

GENERAL OVERVIEW: A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOMINATES MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOCUSED OVER TEXAS AND THE SURROUNDING REGION DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS. MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, HELPING TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

EAST:

Rain and thunderstorms are currently affecting a broad area from the Southeast and Gulf Coast northward through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the Northeast. A cold front is draped along the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a low pressure center nearby, helping to focus shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. Rain is ongoing across portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic, with thunderstorms widespread across the Southeast, Gulf Coast states, and into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. High pressure is situated over the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast, helping to maintain a moist, active weather pattern.

Through Wednesday evening, thunderstorms will continue across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the Tennessee Valley, with rain also expected across portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. By Thursday evening, thunderstorm coverage expands further northward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, while rain continues across the Northeast and New England. A low pressure system tracking through the central part of the country will help drive a warm front and associated precipitation into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday evening, with rain and thunderstorms continuing across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. High pressure begins to build over the Gulf of Mexico, gradually pushing the active weather pattern northward. By Saturday evening, a low pressure center develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with an associated cold front extending southward and a warm front extending eastward offshore. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast, with the coastal low bringing additional precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be above normal across the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal in some areas, particularly around the Great Lakes. Portions of the Carolinas and Tennessee Valley are running near to slightly above normal. The Southeast and Gulf Coast are generally near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, though the magnitude of the anomalies gradually diminishes. The Mid-Atlantic region sees some above-normal readings, particularly around the Chesapeake Bay area. Much of the Southeast and southern Atlantic coast trends toward near-normal conditions.
-Days 7-10: Temperature anomalies across the East become increasingly near normal through the extended period, with only isolated pockets of slight above-normal readings remaining in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas.

CENTRAL:

A broad area of rain and thunderstorms is currently affecting much of the south-central United States. The most significant weather threat during the first two days of the forecast is heavy rain and flash flooding potential across Texas and portions of the surrounding region. Multiple low pressure systems are active across the Rockies and High Plains.

Through Wednesday evening, thunderstorms are widespread across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into the Mississippi Valley, with the heavy rain and flash flooding threat focused over Texas. Rain is also occurring across portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. By Thursday evening, the heavy rain threat shifts slightly but remains focused over Texas, with thunderstorms continuing across the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest. A low pressure system over the central Plains will help maintain active weather across the region. By Friday evening, the thunderstorm coverage across the central Plains and Mississippi Valley begins to diminish somewhat, though scattered activity continues. The western Gulf Coast remains active with thunderstorms. By Saturday evening, the central region sees a general decrease in precipitation coverage, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms remaining across portions of the central Plains and Mississippi Valley.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across Texas and the southern Plains are running below normal, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6 degrees below normal. The northern Plains, Dakotas, and upper Midwest are above normal, with some areas running 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal, particularly over the Dakotas and Minnesota. The central Plains are generally near normal.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across Texas and the southern Plains, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Above-normal temperatures continue across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, though the anomalies moderate somewhat. The central Plains trend toward near-normal conditions.
-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal across the southern Plains weakens and becomes confined to smaller areas. The northern Plains and upper Midwest trend toward near-normal conditions. Much of the central region is near normal through the extended period.

WEST:

Multiple low pressure systems are active across the Intermountain West and Pacific Coast, supporting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and into the Southwest. Rain is occurring along the Pacific Coast of the Northwest, with thunderstorms widespread across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest. Low pressure systems are present over the Pacific Northwest coast, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest, maintaining an active weather pattern across the region.

Through Wednesday evening, thunderstorms will continue across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest, with rain along the Pacific Northwest coast. By Thursday evening, the pattern remains active with thunderstorms continuing across the Southwest and Intermountain West, and rain persisting along the Pacific Northwest coast. The low pressure systems across the region help maintain moisture and lift for continued shower and thunderstorm development. By Friday evening, the thunderstorm coverage across the Intermountain West and Southwest continues, though some areas of the Great Basin see a reduction in activity. Rain remains possible along the Pacific Northwest coast. By Saturday evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the Intermountain West and Southwest, with rain along the Pacific Northwest coast.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the West are generally above normal, with the most notable anomalies across portions of the Rockies and Intermountain West, running 6 to locally more than 12 degrees above normal in some mountain areas. The Pacific Coast and Pacific Northwest are near to slightly above normal. The Desert Southwest is near normal to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Intermountain West, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The Great Basin and Southwest trend toward near-normal conditions. Isolated pockets of above-normal readings persist in parts of California.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures become increasingly focused on the Pacific Northwest, where anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal are expected, particularly over Washington and Oregon. The rest of the West trends toward near-normal conditions, with only isolated pockets of slight above-normal readings across California and the Southwest.

TROPICAL: Tropical cyclone activity is not expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, three disturbances are being monitored. One disturbance is located well to the southwest of Hawaii, with a less than 40 percent chance of development over the next seven days. A second disturbance is situated to the south-southwest of Hawaii, with a greater than 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days. A third disturbance is located well offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico, with a greater than 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days. All three systems are currently over open waters of the eastern and central Pacific and are not expected to directly impact the continental United States.