Above Average Today
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal today.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EAST. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EMERGES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE SECOND DAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE 10-DAY PERIOD, WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN BELOW NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS.
EAST:
A low pressure system is currently situated near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a warm front extending to the northeast and a cold front pushing southward. This setup is producing widespread rain and thunderstorms across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast, extending into the eastern Gulf Coast region. Rain is also occurring across portions of the Great Lakes. By Saturday, the low and its associated fronts shift, with thunderstorm activity continuing broadly across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Ohio Valley. A significant threat of severe thunderstorms develops across the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, and surrounding areas on Saturday, with that threat persisting into Sunday. Heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley region during this timeframe as well. Into Monday and Tuesday, a cold front pushes through the region, with thunderstorm activity continuing across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Rain showers are expected to linger across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast as additional frontal boundaries move through. By Tuesday, a cold front is positioned offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with thunderstorms continuing across the Southeast and Florida.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Northeast and New England are running slightly below normal on Day 1, particularly across northern New England. The Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Great Lakes region are running slightly above normal. Much of the Southeast is near normal. By Days 2-3, the above-normal signal across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region persists, while the rest of the East trends closer to normal.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures across the East are generally near normal through this period, with only modest above-normal anomalies lingering near the Great Lakes region on Day 4 and Day 5. Conditions trend toward near normal for most of the East by Day 6.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the East are largely near normal through Days 7-10, with only isolated and minor above-normal anomalies noted across portions of the Northeast late in the period.
CENTRAL:
A broad area of rain and thunderstorms covers much of the central United States during the first day of the forecast, extending from the northern Plains southward through the central and southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast region. Multiple low pressure systems are present across the region, including one near the Minnesota/Wisconsin border and another over the central Plains. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into west Texas during the first day, with that threat continuing into Saturday as moisture remains focused over the Southwest and southern Rockies. By Sunday, a cold front sweeps through the central Plains, with thunderstorm activity shifting eastward. Low pressure systems continue to track across the region into Monday and Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity persisting across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. A low pressure system near the central Plains on Tuesday continues to support thunderstorm chances across portions of the region.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across Texas and the southern Plains are running notably below normal during Days 1-3, with anomalies of 6 degrees or more below average across much of Texas and into Oklahoma. The northern and central Plains are near normal to slightly above normal. By Day 3, the below-normal signal across Texas begins to diminish somewhat.
-Days 4-6: The below-normal temperature signal across Texas and the southern Plains largely dissipates by Day 4, with temperatures trending back toward near normal across most of the Central region. Slight above-normal anomalies are noted across portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest through Day 5. By Day 6, above-normal temperatures are noted across portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the Central region are generally near normal through Days 7-10, with isolated above-normal anomalies across portions of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. A slight below-normal signal is noted across portions of the central Plains around Day 7-8.
WEST:
Rain and thunderstorm activity is widespread across the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest, and portions of the Southwest during the first day of the forecast, associated with multiple low pressure systems and frontal boundaries. A cold front is draped across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, with rain showers occurring across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Heavy rain and flash flooding are a significant concern across Arizona, New Mexico, and into west Texas, where multiple low pressure systems are focused and moisture is abundant. This heavy rain threat continues into Saturday across the same general area. By Sunday, a low pressure system is positioned over the Great Basin, with scattered rain and thunderstorm activity continuing across the Intermountain West, portions of the Southwest, and the Pacific Coast. Into Monday and Tuesday, a low pressure system persists over the Great Basin and into the central Rockies, with continued rain and thunderstorm chances across the region. Rain showers are also expected across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the period.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, particularly Washington and northern Idaho into Montana, are running well above normal during Days 1-3, with anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12 degrees above average. The remainder of the West is generally near normal to slightly above normal, with portions of the Great Basin and California running modestly above normal. A slight below-normal signal is noted across portions of Arizona and New Mexico on Days 2-3.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through Days 4-6, with the warmest anomalies focused on Washington, northern Idaho, and Montana. The remainder of the West trends toward near normal, though slight above-normal anomalies persist across portions of the Great Basin and California through Day 5. By Day 6, the above-normal signal is more confined to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through Days 7-10, though the magnitude of the anomalies gradually decreases. Portions of California also see modest above-normal anomalies through this period. The remainder of the West is generally near normal.
TROPICAL:
Tropical Storm Elida is currently active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, positioned well off the coast of Mexico with maximum sustained winds to 55 knots. No land impacts are anticipated with this storm. A separate disturbance is being monitored in the far eastern Pacific, near the coast of Central America, with a 90% chance of development over the next seven days. Additionally, a disturbance is being monitored well to the west of Hawaii in the central Pacific, though development is not expected with that system.
In the Atlantic basin, a disturbance is being monitored near the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, with a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. A separate area is also being monitored for potential development in the tropical Atlantic, southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, though development is not expected with that system.