Near to Below Normal Temperatures

**General Overview:**

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THESE THREATS PERSISTING AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION WILL BRING RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, A CONSOLIDATING STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEST REMAINS LARGELY DRY BUT NOTABLY WARM, WITH WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

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**EAST:** A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW, WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE COASTAL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE, BUT RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH SOME LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY, A REINFORCED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTO FLORIDA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, BEFORE MODERATING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MIDWEEK.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: Temperatures running 3 to 6°F below normal across the Northeast and Great Lakes, with near-normal readings across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Slight below-normal anomalies also noted across portions of the Carolinas.

– Days 4-6: A notable cold anomaly develops and deepens across a broad swath of the East, from the Great Lakes southward through the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast, with departures of 3 to 9°F below normal. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic also trend below normal during this period.

– Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures gradually retreat and become confined to the central Appalachians and portions of the Southeast, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal. The remainder of the East trends back toward or slightly above normal by the end of the period.

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**CENTRAL:** THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON SUNDAY EVENING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION IS GENERATING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION, WHERE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES INTO MONDAY, THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHIFTS AND EXPANDS, WITH A PARTICULARLY NOTABLE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS, EASTERN TEXAS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN A SERIOUS CONCERN IN THESE AREAS. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE STORM SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TUESDAY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AND HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: Temperatures near to slightly below normal across the North Central region, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Near-normal readings across the Central and Southern Plains.

– Days 4-6: The cold anomaly that develops in the East extends into the Ohio Valley and portions of the Midwest, with below-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F. The Central Plains trend near normal, while the South Central region remains near to slightly above normal.

– Days 7-10: A broad warming trend takes hold across the Central region, with above-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F spreading across the Central and Northern Plains, the Midwest, and into the Great Lakes region. This above-normal pattern becomes increasingly widespread through the end of the period.

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**WEST:** THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEES A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE NORTH, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CASCADES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY, KEEPING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHWEST. THE MOST NOTABLE STORY FOR THE WEST IS THE BUILDING HEAT, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: Above-normal temperatures are already well established across the West, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above normal across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the Intermountain West. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies run near to slightly above normal.

– Days 4-6: The above-normal temperature anomaly intensifies and expands, with the core of the warmth centered over the Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West, where departures of 9 to more than 12°F above normal are expected. Above-normal readings spread northward into the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as well.

– Days 7-10: The above-normal temperature pattern across the West gradually moderates but remains in place, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal across much of the region. The most pronounced warmth lingers across the Intermountain West and portions of the Central Rockies.

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**TROPICAL:** The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are both quiet at this time, with no tropical cyclone activity expected during the next seven days. No areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored for development in either basin.