Near or Just Above Normal

General Overview: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, WHERE SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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EAST: The eastern United States will be dominated by active weather through the forecast period, with the most pressing concern being the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. A persistent area of low pressure situated over the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast region will continue to tap deep moisture and fuel heavy rainfall, with flash flooding a significant concern across portions of the central Gulf Coast states, including areas along and near the Alabama and Mississippi coastlines through at least Tuesday. This heavy rain and flash flooding threat is the primary hazard for the region and should be monitored closely. Thunderstorms will be widespread across the Southeast, extending northward through the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic through much of the week. A low pressure system tracking along the Northeast coast will bring rain to portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic early in the period, with that system departing by mid-week. Behind it, high pressure will attempt to build into the region, though another frontal boundary approaching from the west will keep rain chances in the forecast for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through Thursday. By Friday, a cold front sweeping through the Northeast will bring additional rain, with the front pushing offshore and leaving behind drier conditions for the weekend. 

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Northeast will be running near to slightly above normal, with the most notable warmth confined to the Great Lakes region where anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12°F above normal are expected. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will be near normal to slightly above normal.

– Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue to be focused across the northern tier, particularly the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal. The Southeast transitions toward near-normal readings. By Day 6, a modest cooling trend begins to take hold across portions of the Northeast, with some areas running slightly below normal.

– Days 7-10: A notable cool-down arrives across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, with temperatures running 3 to 6°F below normal from the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. The Great Lakes region returns closer to normal, though some above-normal anomalies persist across the far northern tier.

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CENTRAL: The central United States will see a very active weather pattern through the forecast period, driven by multiple low pressure systems and frontal boundaries traversing the region. The most significant hazard early in the period is the threat of severe thunderstorms across the South Central region, particularly over portions of the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential, including the risk of damaging winds and large hail, will be present across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and into the lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday night. Heavy rain and flash flooding will also be a serious concern across the central Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley, with slow-moving storms capable of producing locally significant rainfall totals. By Wednesday, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts slightly, remaining focused near the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley as low pressure lingers in the region. Thunderstorms will be widespread across the Central Plains and Midwest through the mid-week period as a series of frontal boundaries push through the region. A low pressure system over the Northern Rockies and High Plains early in the period will help fuel thunderstorm activity across the Central Plains. By Thursday and Friday, the activity gradually diminishes across the northern portions of the Central Plains as high pressure builds in, though thunderstorms will persist across the southern portions of the region and into the Gulf Coast states.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: The most pronounced warmth in the country will be centered across the Northern Plains and north-central portions of the region, with temperature anomalies running 6 to locally more than 12°F above normal across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. The Southern Plains will be near to slightly below normal.

– Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F above normal continuing. The Southern Plains, however, will begin to see a cooling trend, with temperatures trending toward and then below normal by Day 6.

– Days 7-10: A significant temperature contrast develops across the Central region. The Northern Plains will remain above normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal. Meanwhile, the Southern Plains will experience a pronounced cool-down, with temperatures running 6 to locally more than 9°F below normal across much of the South Central region by the end of the period. This below-normal signal extends into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley as well.

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WEST: The western United States will be characterized by a series of Pacific systems bringing unsettled weather to the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Interior West throughout the forecast period. A cold front pushing through the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Washington and Oregon, with mixed precipitation possible across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and Cascades. Low pressure systems tracking through the region will keep rain and mixed precipitation in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through much of the week. Portions of the Great Basin and interior Southwest will also see some precipitation activity, with mixed precipitation possible at higher elevations. By Friday, another cold front pushes into the Pacific Northwest, bringing a fresh round of rain and thunderstorms to the region. The Desert Southwest and California will be largely dry through much of the period, though some shower activity is possible across the higher terrain. Critical fire weather conditions are not highlighted in this period across the West.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: The Pacific Northwest and much of California will see below-normal temperatures develop, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal across much of the region by Day 2 and 3. The northern Rockies and High Plains will be above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above normal across portions of the northern Rockies.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures will be most pronounced across the Great Basin and Southwest, with anomalies of 6 to locally 9°F below normal across Nevada, Utah, and into Arizona and New Mexico. The Pacific Northwest will also remain below normal. The northern Rockies and portions of the Intermountain West will continue to see above-normal readings.

– Days 7-10: A broad warming trend develops across much of the West, with above-normal temperatures returning to the Pacific Northwest and spreading across the Intermountain West. Anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal will be widespread from the Pacific Northwest through the northern and central Rockies. The Desert Southwest will see a gradual moderation back toward normal.

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TROPICAL: The Atlantic basin and Eastern Pacific basin are both quiet at this time, with no tropical cyclone activity expected over the next seven days.