Near Normal Temperatures Return Today

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS CENTERED ON PERSISTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THE WEST WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY BUT NOTABLY WARM, WITH WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

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EAST: A dynamic and impactful weather pattern will grip the eastern United States through the weekend and into early next week. A complex low pressure system tracking along the Eastern Seaboard will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic southward through the Southeast and into the Gulf Coast. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern, particularly across the Gulf Coast and lower Southeast, where slow-moving thunderstorm complexes could produce locally excessive rainfall. The cold front associated with this system will push southeastward, dragging a broad precipitation shield across the region. Rain and thunderstorms will extend from the Carolinas and Virginia southward through the Gulf Coast states on Saturday, with the heaviest activity focused near the coast and across the Florida Peninsula.

To the north, wintry precipitation will be a notable hazard across the interior Northeast and Great Lakes region. Snow and mixed precipitation are expected across northern New England and the Great Lakes, where cold air filtering in behind the frontal boundary will support accumulating snowfall, particularly across elevated terrain. A transition zone of mixed precipitation, including the potential for freezing rain, will exist along the rain-snow boundary across portions of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. By Sunday evening, the low pressure system will have shifted northeastward, with the precipitation shield pulling away from the Mid-Atlantic and consolidating across New England and the Great Lakes. Rain will continue across the Southeast and Gulf Coast as a secondary low develops along the trailing cold front. By Monday, the cold front will have pushed offshore across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with lingering rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. A new low pressure system will develop along the front, maintaining active weather across the region into Tuesday. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic behind the departing system, bringing a period of drier and cooler conditions to much of the East by mid-week.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1–3: Temperatures will run near to slightly below normal across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal in some areas. The Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Southeast will be near or slightly below normal as well, particularly in the wake of the frontal passage.

– Days 4–6: A more pronounced cold anomaly will settle across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the mid-South, with departures running 6 to more than 12°F below normal in some areas. The cold signal will extend into portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through this period.

– Days 7–10: The cold anomaly will gradually moderate and retreat, becoming focused primarily across the central Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. Much of the Northeast will trend back toward near-normal temperatures by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The central United States will be the focal point for the most significant severe weather threat of the period. A persistent low pressure system tracking across the South Central region will fuel multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms, with the threat most concentrated across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorm potential will be elevated across the Central Plains and into the South Central states through Saturday, with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all in play. Heavy rain and flash flooding will accompany the most intense thunderstorm activity, particularly across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states, where training thunderstorm cells could produce locally catastrophic rainfall totals.

By Sunday, the severe weather threat will shift slightly eastward but will remain active across the South Central region, with portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast continuing to see heavy rain and thunderstorm activity. A secondary area of severe thunderstorm potential will persist across the Central Plains and into the mid-South through the early part of next week. A strong cold front will sweep through the central United States by Monday, bringing a sharp end to the thunderstorm activity across the northern tier of the region. Behind the front, a new low pressure system will develop across the Northern Plains, bringing rain, thunderstorms, and some wintry precipitation to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. By Tuesday, the frontal boundary will have pushed southward, with a low pressure system near the Upper Midwest driving rain and thunderstorms across the region. The South Central states will see a gradual decrease in precipitation activity as high pressure builds in from the west.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1–3: Temperatures will be near normal across much of the central United States, with the most notable departures limited to the Northern Plains, where readings will run 3 to 6°F below normal.

– Days 4–6: A significant cold surge will push southward across the central United States behind the frontal passage, with below-normal temperatures spreading from the Upper Midwest southward into the mid-South. Anomalies of 6 to 12°F below normal are possible across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during this period.

– Days 7–10: Temperatures will moderate and trend back toward above normal across much of the central United States, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal developing across the Central and Southern Plains and spreading northward into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period.

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WEST: The western United States will experience a predominantly dry and warm pattern throughout the forecast period. A broad area of above-normal temperatures will dominate the region, with the most intense heat focused across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West. Temperatures will run well above normal across these areas, with anomalies reaching 12°F or more above normal at times, particularly across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies. This persistent warmth will raise fire weather concerns across the region, especially in areas with low humidity and gusty winds. A low pressure system will bring some precipitation to the Pacific Coast and portions of the Pacific Northwest early in the period, but the overall pattern will be dominated by dry and warm conditions. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible across portions of the Rockies and Desert Southwest, particularly during the afternoon hours, but widespread significant precipitation is not anticipated.

By mid-week, the warm and dry pattern will continue to dominate the West, with high pressure firmly entrenched across the region. The Pacific Northwest will see some lingering shower activity early in the period before drying out as high pressure builds southward. The Southwest will remain exceptionally warm and dry through the end of the forecast period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1–3: Temperatures will run 6 to more than 12°F above normal across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the Rockies. The Pacific Northwest will be near to slightly above normal.

– Days 4–6: The above-normal temperature signal will intensify and expand across the West, with anomalies of 12°F or more above normal becoming widespread across the Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West. The warmth will extend northward into the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

– Days 7–10: The above-normal temperature pattern will gradually moderate but will remain in place across much of the West, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal persisting across a broad area. The most intense warmth will retreat somewhat but will still be focused across the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West.

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TROPICAL: The tropics are currently quiet, with no active tropical cyclones or areas of organized disturbance being monitored in either the Atlantic basin or the eastern Pacific basin. Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next seven days across either ocean basin.