Near Normal Temperatures
Temperatures will be within 3 degrees of normal today.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION ALSO OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERATING RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., FOCUSING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE EAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
EAST:
Rain and thunderstorms are currently affecting a broad area stretching from the Mid-Atlantic northward through the Northeast, with a low pressure system situated near the coast driving this activity. Of particular concern is a heavy rain and flash flooding threat currently focused over portions of the Mid-Atlantic, including areas near the Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey region. Thunderstorms are also ongoing across the Southeast and along the eastern Gulf Coast. A warm front extending offshore and a cold front approaching from the west will continue to influence the region through Sunday evening, maintaining rain and thunderstorm coverage across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. By Monday, the coastal low lifts northward, with rain and thunderstorm activity shifting and becoming more focused across portions of the Great Lakes and upper Midwest, while a high pressure system builds into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, bringing a drier trend to those areas. Thunderstorm activity will linger across the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast through Monday. By Tuesday evening, a cold front pushes into the region, bringing a band of rain and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Rain continues across portions of the Southeast coast as well. Into Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm activity becomes more concentrated across the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the frontal system continues to push through.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and much of the Southeast will be running above normal, generally in the range of 3 to 6 degrees above average. The Great Lakes region also sees above-normal readings, with some areas near the Upper Great Lakes running more than 6 degrees above normal on Day 1 and Day 2. The Northeast is near to slightly above normal. By Day 3, above-normal temperatures expand across the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, with some areas running 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal across portions of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue to dominate across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal focused over the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians region. The Northeast trends toward near-normal to slightly above-normal readings.
-Days 7-10: The above-normal temperature signal gradually relaxes but remains in place across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Southeast and Ohio Valley, generally running 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Conditions trend toward near normal across the Northeast and New England by the end of the period.
CENTRAL:
Rain and thunderstorms are currently widespread across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, associated with a low pressure system tracking across the northern Plains. Thunderstorm activity is also ongoing across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast. A warm front and cold front extend southward from this northern Plains low, helping to organize precipitation across the region. By Sunday evening, the low shifts eastward, with rain and thunderstorm activity concentrated across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while thunderstorms continue across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast. A separate low pressure area develops across the central Plains by Monday, with warm fronts extending to the east and southeast, helping to maintain thunderstorm coverage across the central and southern Plains. By Tuesday evening, a cold front sweeps southward and eastward across the central Plains, with a broad area of thunderstorms extending from the southern Plains northward through the central Plains and into the Midwest. A low pressure center is situated near the central Plains along this front. By Wednesday, the cold front continues to push eastward, with thunderstorm activity shifting toward the central and southern Plains and western Gulf Coast, while a high pressure system builds into the northern Plains.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the southern Plains, including Texas and Oklahoma, are running well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average. Above-normal readings also extend across much of the central Plains and into the Midwest. The northern Plains are near normal to slightly below normal on Day 1, with below-normal temperatures becoming more pronounced by Day 3, particularly across portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska, running 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
-Days 4-6: A strong above-normal temperature signal develops across the central and southern Plains, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal focused over Oklahoma, Kansas, and surrounding areas. This warmth extends into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The northern Plains trend toward near normal to slightly below normal.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures gradually moderate across the central Plains and Midwest, though readings remain slightly above normal across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Much of the northern and central Plains trend toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period.
WEST:
Rain and thunderstorms are currently ongoing across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and the Great Basin, associated with multiple low pressure systems and a cold front extending southward along the Pacific Coast. Mixed precipitation is occurring across portions of the northern Rockies, particularly over Idaho and Wyoming. Thunderstorm activity is also present across portions of the Southwest and southern Rockies. By Sunday evening, rain and mixed precipitation continue across the northern Rockies and portions of the Pacific Northwest, while thunderstorm activity persists across the Southwest and southern Rockies. A cold front continues to push southward along the Pacific Coast. By Monday, rain and mixed precipitation remain focused across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, with a low pressure system near the Southwest also contributing to thunderstorm activity across Arizona and New Mexico. By Tuesday evening, a low pressure system is situated over the Southwest, with thunderstorm activity continuing across the southern Rockies and southern Plains. Rain continues across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. By Wednesday, the Pacific Northwest sees continued rain, while the Southwest and southern Rockies maintain thunderstorm coverage. A new cold front approaches from the northwest.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Montana is running notably below normal on Days 1 and 2, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below average. By Day 3, the below-normal signal expands to include much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal over portions of Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. The remainder of the West, including the Southwest, Great Basin, and California, is running above normal, generally 3 to 6 degrees above average.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across the northern Rockies and expand to include portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below normal. The Southwest and southern portions of the West remain above normal, with some areas running 3 to 6 degrees above average. By Day 6, the below-normal signal contracts primarily to portions of Montana and the northern Rockies, while much of the West trends toward near normal.
-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal largely dissipates across the West, with most areas trending toward near-normal conditions. Portions of the Pacific Northwest and coastal California see slight above-normal readings, while the interior West is generally near normal by the end of the period.
TROPICAL:
No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Norbert is currently located well offshore in the central eastern Pacific, with a disturbance also being monitored to its east. The overall track and intensity evolution of Norbert will need to be monitored, though it currently poses no threat to land areas. Additionally, a separate disturbance is being monitored in the central Pacific south of Hawaii, with a less than 40 percent chance of development over the next seven days.