Near Normal Temperatures

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION OVER THE COMING DAYS, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS CENTERED ON A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSING THREATS OF TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI, AND ARKANSAS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD, BRINGING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT SETTLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY WEEK’S END.

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EAST: The eastern United States begins the period under the influence of a low pressure system tracking along the Gulf and Southeast coastline, with an associated warm front extending northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf Coast, the Florida Peninsula, and up through the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region through Sunday. A separate area of rain is also noted across portions of the Northeast, particularly across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. As the week progresses, the primary storm system from the Central Plains pushes eastward, with a potent cold front sweeping through the Ohio Valley and Appalachians by Tuesday evening, bringing a broad swath of thunderstorm activity from the Tennessee Valley northward through the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast. The cold front’s passage will be accompanied by heavy rain and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast and Ohio Valley. Behind the front, rain transitions to mixed precipitation and eventually snow across the interior Northeast and Great Lakes by Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday, a low pressure system consolidates off the Northeast coast, bringing rain and mixed precipitation — including the potential for a wintry mix — to portions of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity continues across the Southeast and Gulf Coast as warm, moist air persists ahead of the departing frontal boundary. Conditions gradually improve across the East late in the week as high pressure builds in behind the departing system.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures are running well above normal across the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above average in some areas. The Northeast sees near-normal to slightly below-normal readings in spots, while the Southeast and Gulf Coast are near to slightly above normal.

-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Southeast, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F above average. The Northeast transitions to near-normal or slightly above-normal readings. The Great Lakes region also sees above-normal temperatures during this period.

-Days 7-10: A notable cooldown arrives across much of the East as a reinforcing cold airmass pushes through. Temperatures fall to below normal across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Southeast, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. The Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast also trend below normal by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The central United States is the focal point of the most impactful weather during this period. A vigorous low pressure system is already in place across the Central Rockies and Central Plains this weekend, with multiple low centers and an occluded front draped across the region. **Severe thunderstorms are a significant threat across the Central Plains and lower Midwest, particularly over Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, where conditions are favorable for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.** This severe weather threat is expected to persist and potentially expand through Sunday and into Monday as the storm system deepens and tracks northeastward. Thunderstorm activity will be widespread from the South Central region northward through the Midwest, with heavy rainfall possible. To the north and west of the severe weather zone, heavy snow and mixed precipitation — including freezing rain — will impact the Northern Plains, the Dakotas, and portions of the upper Midwest. The combination of heavy snow and ice accumulations could create dangerous travel conditions across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. By Monday evening, the primary low has shifted into the upper Midwest, with a cold front extending southward through the Mississippi Valley and a warm front lifting northeastward. Thunderstorm activity continues from the lower Mississippi Valley northward through the Midwest. As the cold front pushes eastward through Tuesday, the Central Plains and Midwest see a gradual end to precipitation, with cooler and drier conditions returning behind the front. A secondary low pressure system develops across the Southwest by midweek, keeping the potential for precipitation active across the Southern Rockies and Central Plains later in the week.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: The South Central region, including Texas and Oklahoma, is running above normal by 3 to 6°F. The Northern Plains and upper Midwest are well below normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below average, particularly across the northern tier. By Day 3, above-normal temperatures spread northward through the Midwest ahead of the approaching frontal system, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F above normal across the Central Plains and Midwest.

-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the South Central region and portions of the lower Midwest during Days 4 and 5, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above average. The Northern Plains continues to see below-normal readings, though the magnitude of the cold anomaly gradually diminishes. By Day 6, temperatures trend closer to normal across much of the central region.

-Days 7-10: A significant cold airmass pushes southward across the central United States during Days 7 through 10. Below-normal temperatures spread from the Northern Plains southward through the Central Plains and into the South Central region, with anomalies reaching 3 to 6°F below average and locally more across the Central Plains. The cold pattern becomes increasingly entrenched across the central and south-central portions of the country by Day 9 and 10.

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WEST: The western United States remains active throughout the period, with multiple low pressure systems and frontal boundaries keeping precipitation chances elevated across the region. This weekend, a complex area of low pressure is centered across the Great Basin and Central Rockies, with cold fronts sweeping through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Heavy snow is expected across the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies and Cascades, while rain and mixed precipitation impact the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. Snow and mixed precipitation are also noted across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest. As the week progresses, the active pattern continues across the Northwest, with additional rounds of rain and mountain snow expected through Tuesday and Wednesday. The Northern Rockies and Cascades will see continued accumulating snowfall, with heavy snow possible at the higher passes. Across the Southwest, a developing low pressure system by midweek will bring the potential for precipitation, including mountain snow across the Southern Rockies. The Pacific Coast sees periods of rain, particularly across California and the Pacific Northwest, through much of the forecast period.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: The Northwest and Northern Rockies are running significantly below normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below average, particularly across Montana and Wyoming. The remainder of the West is near normal, with only modest departures noted.

-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across the Northern Rockies and northern Intermountain West, though the anomalies gradually moderate. The Southwest and Southern California trend slightly above normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above average developing across the region.

-Days 7-10: A notable pattern reversal occurs across the West during Days 7 through 10, as above-normal temperatures build across the Pacific Coast, Great Basin, and Southwest. Anomalies of 3 to 6°F above average are expected across much of the region, with the warmest departures centered across the Pacific Northwest and California. The Northern Rockies and northern Intermountain West see a gradual moderation toward near-normal readings.

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TROPICAL: The tropical weather outlook across both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins is quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days across either basin, and there are no active disturbances being monitored for development. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation across all monitored areas.