Near Normal

**GENERAL OVERVIEW:**

An active weather pattern is unfolding across much of the contiguous United States through the coming days, with the most significant hazards centered on heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorm threats across portions of the Central region. A series of low pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries will drive rounds of convection from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the mid-to-late week period. Meanwhile, the West will see ongoing precipitation activity, particularly across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern Rockies, while the East transitions from a relatively quiet early-week pattern to a more active regime as frontal systems push through. Above-normal temperatures are expected to be the dominant temperature signal across a broad swath of the country through much of the 10-day period, with the most notable warm anomalies concentrated across the northern tier and Great Lakes region.

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**EAST:**

The early part of the forecast period finds the East in a relatively benign weather pattern, with high pressure dominating across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Thunderstorm activity is noted along and near the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast, with rain extending up portions of the Atlantic Seaboard. A frontal system tracking across the northern tier will bring increasing precipitation chances to the Great Lakes and Northeast by Thursday evening, with rain and thunderstorms spreading across a broad area from the upper Midwest through New England. This activity intensifies and expands through Friday, as a deepening low pressure system tracks across the northern Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front southeastward. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to be widespread across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. By Saturday, the precipitation shield shifts and becomes more focused across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Northeast, with rain continuing across a broad swath of the region. The Southeast and Gulf Coast states will see ongoing thunderstorm activity through much of the period, particularly along and south of a persistent frontal boundary.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the East are running near to slightly above normal for much of the region during the opening days of the period. A modest below-normal signal is noted along portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast and into southern New England on Day 1, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6 degrees below normal. By Day 2, below-normal temperatures persist across the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic. By Day 3, a more pronounced warm anomaly develops across the Great Lakes and into New England, with departures of 6 to 12 degrees above normal, while a below-normal signal of 3 to 6 degrees persists across the Southeast, particularly the Carolinas and adjacent areas.
– **Days 4–6:** Above-normal temperatures become increasingly dominant across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through this period. Anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees above normal are particularly notable across the upper Great Lakes and into New England by Days 4 and 5. The Southeast and Gulf Coast region trends closer to normal. By Day 6, the above-normal signal remains robust across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with the Mid-Atlantic also running above normal.
– **Days 7–10:** The above-normal temperature pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast persists and in some cases intensifies through the extended period. Anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees or more above normal are indicated across the upper Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast on Days 7 through 9. The remainder of the East trends near to slightly above normal, with no significant cold anomalies depicted through Day 10.

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**CENTRAL:**

The Central region is the most active area of the forecast, with multiple rounds of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorm threats expected over the coming days. During the Day 1 period (Tuesday into Wednesday), a significant heavy rain and flash flooding threat is highlighted across portions of the Central Plains, specifically over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle region, where heavy rainfall is explicitly depicted. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across this same area. Concurrently, a separate severe thunderstorm threat is noted across portions of the Northern Plains, including the Dakotas, where a cold front is draped from a surface low tracking through the region. Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the Central and Southern Plains, extending from the Texas Gulf Coast northward through the Midwest. Mixed precipitation is noted across portions of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in association with the northern system.

By the Day 2 period (Wednesday into Thursday), the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts and remains focused across portions of the Southern Plains, particularly over west Texas and into eastern New Mexico, where the threat is explicitly highlighted. Severe thunderstorms remain possible in association with this activity. A separate area of severe thunderstorm potential is noted across the Northern Plains, particularly the Dakotas, as the frontal system continues to evolve. Rain and thunderstorm coverage remains broad across the Central and Southern Plains, with activity extending into the Midwest. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies continue to see precipitation as well.

By Thursday evening, a low pressure system is tracking across the Central Plains with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front pushing southward, maintaining a corridor of rain and thunderstorms from the Central Plains into the Midwest. Through Friday, the storm system becomes more organized with the low tracking into the upper Midwest, and a broad swath of rain and thunderstorms extends from the Central Plains through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. By Saturday, the precipitation focus shifts northward and eastward as the system exits, though thunderstorm activity continues across portions of the Central and Southern Plains.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** The Central region is predominantly above normal during the opening days of the period. Anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above normal are widespread across the Northern Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Central Plains on Day 1, with a more pronounced warm signal of 6 to 12 degrees above normal noted across portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. A notable exception is across portions of the Southern Plains and into the South Central region, where near-normal to slightly above-normal readings are expected. By Day 3, above-normal temperatures expand across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees above normal, while portions of the Southern Plains and New Mexico see below-normal temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees.
– **Days 4–6:** The above-normal temperature signal continues across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest through this period. A notable below-normal anomaly of 3 to 6 degrees develops across Texas and the South Central region on Days 4 and 5, persisting into Day 6. The remainder of the Central region trends near to slightly above normal.
– **Days 7–10:** Above-normal temperatures remain the dominant signal across the Northern Plains, Central Plains, and upper Midwest through the extended period, with anomalies generally in the 3 to 6 degree above-normal range. The South Central region trends back toward near normal by Days 9 and 10. No significant cold anomalies are depicted across the Central region during this window.

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**WEST:**

The West will see an active precipitation pattern, particularly across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, through much of the forecast period. On Wednesday evening, rain and snow are noted across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with a low pressure system positioned off the Pacific Coast. This activity continues into Thursday, with rain spreading across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, and snow confined to higher terrain areas of the northern Rockies and Cascades. A separate low pressure system is noted off the Southern California coast on Thursday, contributing to some precipitation chances across the Southwest. By Friday, precipitation continues across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with the overall pattern remaining unsettled. By Saturday, snow and rain persist across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with snow confined to higher elevations. The remainder of the West, including California, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest, is largely dry through much of the period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** The West is predominantly above normal during the opening days of the period. Anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above normal are widespread across California, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest on Day 1. A notable exception is across portions of the northern Rockies, particularly Montana, where temperatures are running 6 to 12 degrees below normal on Day 1. By Day 2, the below-normal signal in the northern Rockies diminishes, and above-normal temperatures become more widespread across the Pacific Coast states and the interior West. By Day 3, above-normal temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees are broadly depicted across much of the West.
– **Days 4–6:** Above-normal temperatures continue across much of the West through this period, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above normal across California, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest. By Day 6, a below-normal signal of 3 to 6 degrees develops across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while the remainder of the West remains above normal.
– **Days 7–10:** The below-normal temperature signal across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies becomes more pronounced through Days 7 and 8, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below normal. The remainder of the West, including California, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest, trends near to slightly above normal through Days 9 and 10, with the below-normal signal gradually diminishing across the Northwest by the end of the period.

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**TROPICAL:**

No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin or Gulf of Mexico during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, two areas of disturbed weather are being monitored. One disturbance located well to the south-southwest of Hawaii carries a greater than 60 percent chance of development into a named storm over the next seven days. A second disturbance is located off the Pacific Coast of Central America and carries a development probability in the 40 to 60 percent range over the same timeframe. Neither system poses any threat to the continental United States at this time.