MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for January 20th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— EIA Sees Gas Prices Down 6% in 2026, Up 1% in 2027

— Trump’s First Year in Office: Policies and Impacts

— PBF’s Torrance Refinery Reports Multiple Weekend Flares

— Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan in Western Gateway 2nd Season

NEWS:

EIA Sees Gas Prices Down 6% in 2026, Up 1% in 2027

U.S. retail gasoline prices are forecast to decline by 6% this year before increasing by 1% in 2027, according to an Energy Information Administration outlook published Tuesday (1/20).

The EIA projected the average retail gasoline price will fall by about 20 cents per gallon in 2026, extending the downward trend that began following the 2022 peak in pump prices.

Prices are expected to decrease across all U.S. regions this year, with the Gulf Coast maintaining the lowest average price near $2.50 per gallon. The West Coast is projected to remain the most expensive region at nearly $4 per gallon as refinery capacity reductions offset broader national price declines.

Although prices are forecast to rise by 1% in 2027, average gasoline prices are expected to remain below the 2025 average in every region except the West Coast. Continued refinery capacity losses in that region are expected to support higher margins and keep prices roughly in line with last year.

The EIA said the West Coast is expected to retain the highest gasoline prices nationwide through 2027, while the Gulf Coast is forecast to post the lowest prices, followed by the Midwest.

Downward pressure on gasoline prices next year is expected to come from lower crude oil prices. Crude oil’s share of the retail gasoline price is projected to fall below 45% by 2027, compared to a historical average above 50%.

Refining margins and taxes are expected to account for a larger share of the pump price as global crude oil markets soften. Gasoline crack spreads are forecast to increase slightly through 2027 due to lower inventories and tighter Atlantic Basin market conditions, though margins are expected to remain well below levels seen in 2022 and 2023.

Trump’s First Year in Office: Policies and Impacts

U.S. President Donald Trump completed his first year focusing on aggressive deregulation and domestic energy expansion to stimulate industrial growth across the economy.

The Trump administration prioritized the elimination of federal oversight to lower operational costs for domestic energy producers and traditional manufacturing sectors within the United States.

 Market-Friendly Outcomes and Policy Drivers

– Domestic crude oil production reached record highs as the administration streamlined federal permitting processes and expanded leasing opportunities on protected public lands and offshore sites.

– The Department of Energy accelerated approvals for liquefied natural gas export terminals to strengthen global market share and provide a counterbalance to overseas energy competitors. 

– Corporate investment in the traditional automotive sector increased following the formal rollback of stringent fuel economy standards and various tailpipe emission mandates established by previous administrations. 

– The industrial sector benefited from significant reductions in compliance costs after the executive branch eliminated two existing federal regulations for every new rule introduced.

Countervailing Market Effects and Policy Risks

– The implementation of tariffs is slowing economic growth both domestically and internationally, while at the same time contributing to inflation. It has also led to retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. goods abroad.

– A proposed 10-25% tariff on European allies opposed to the U.S. purchase of Greenland – and taking the Arctic island by force if resistance remains – is threatening to fracture the decades-strong NATO alliance. 

– The Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has fueled concerns regarding central bank independence.  Public threats to bypass the Fed’s interest-rate-setting authority have also boosted long-term yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, making borrowings even costlier.

– The freezing of billions of dollars in federal research grants to elite universities like Harvard has created long-term risks for American scientific innovation and the high-tech talent pipeline. 

– The capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and oversight of the OPEC member country’s administration by the White House have disrupted heavy-crude supply chains, although the U.S. has started marketing some of the oil from there. 

– Repeated U.S. threats to hit Iran “very hard” if it continues its domestic crackdown against mass civilian protests have added to geopolitical risk, particularly in oil, forcing global shippers to reroute from the Persian Gulf. U.S. bombers already struck Iran in June, targeting suspected nuclear sites. 

– The administration’s America First immigration crackdown and aggressive deportation tactics could destabilize the labor market, economists say, potentially triggering a significant long-term decline in national consumer spending and overall economic productivity.

PBF’s Torrance Refinery Reports Multiple Weekend Flares

PBF Energy reported an ongoing emergency flaring at its 166,000 bpd Torrance, California refinery that began Monday (1/20) at 12:05 a.m. PT, according to a filing with the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

The filing did not provide an estimated end time for the flaring event and cited the incident as “emergency flaring.”

The most recent event follows another emergency flaring incident at the Torrance refinery that began Sunday (1/19) at 3:22 a.m. PT, according to a separate South Coast AQMD filing.

That event also did not list a stop time.

An additional flaring incident was reported earlier in the weekend, beginning Saturday (1/16) at 12:00 a.m. PT. That event, however, was attributed to a mechanical/electrical malfunction, the filing said.

The emergency flaring events occurred alongside ongoing planned flaring at the Torrance facility that began January 8 at 8:29 a.m. PT and is estimated to continue through Sunday, January 18, at 11:59 p.m., according to a prior South Coast AQMD filing. That planned flaring was attributed to a “startup/shutdown.”

Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan in Western Gateway 2nd Season

Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan Inc. have launched a second open season for the Western Gateway Pipeline to solicit additional shipper commitments for refined products, a news release from late last week said.

The companies are seeking to fill remaining pipeline capacity after an initial December solicitation confirmed significant market interest for the route connecting Texas to Arizona.

The project involves construction of a new pipeline from Borger, Texas, to Phoenix, Arizona, and reversing an existing Kinder Morgan line between Colton and Phoenix to enable westward flows.

Supply diversification will increase through expanded origin points in the Midwest, supported by the reversal of the Gold Pipeline which currently flows toward St. Louis.

Total capacity for the system is expected to be finalized after the second open season concludes on March 31, with binding long-term shipper commitments officially secured.