MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News May 1st:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— LA Jet Fuel Basis Slides by 15cts on Low Availability  

— AAA Study: Extreme Temperatures Drain EV and HEVs

— Chevron Q1 Profit DN 37% on Mideast Impact, Trade Losses

— CFTC: Managed Money Net Longs Steady in Week to April 28

— Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Down by 4

— Chevron Q1 Profit DN 37% on Mideast Impact, Trade Losses

— Exxon Q1 2026 Profit DN 45% Y-o-Y Despite High Oil Prices

NEWS:

CFTC: Managed Money Net Longs Steady in Week to April 28

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Money managers’ bullish bets in NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were little changed during the week ended April 28 as prices remained supported at above $90 bbl amid a debate on the next steps in the Iran war, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed Friday (5/1).

Noncommercial long positions in WTI held by money managers rose by 10,663 contracts to 390,683 during the reference week, according to the weekly Commitment of Traders report of the CFTC.

Noncommercial short positions increased by 11,054 contracts to 198,772 during the same week, the CFTC said.

This caused the net noncommercial long position in WTI to ease by 391 to 191,911. Open interest, meanwhile, gained by 32,291 contracts to 2,017,038.

Those moves in WTI came as its front-month contract moved up from a low of $87.90 on April 21 to a peak of $101.85 on April 28.   

In NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures, noncommercial long positions gained by 316 contracts to 79,862, while short positions rose by 1,215 contracts to 23,646. This caused the noncommercial net long position to shrink by 899 contracts to 56,216, while open interest in gasoline fell by 16,805 contracts to 313,234.

In NYMEX ULSD futures, noncommercial long positions climbed by 709 contracts to 37,794, while short positions rose by 2,496 contracts to 34,127. These changes caused the noncommercial net long position in ULSD to retreat by 1,787 contracts to 3,667, while open interest dropped by 6,649 contracts to 240,526.

In NYMEX natural gas futures, noncommercial long positions fell by 9,564 contracts to 232,463, while short positions decreased by 11,606 contracts to 398,736. That caused the net short position in natural gas to ease by 2,042 contracts to 166,273, as open interest rose by 1,937 contracts to 1,578,600.

Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Down by 4

North American energy drilling activity fell by four rigs this week, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly report released Friday (5/1).

The report shows the regional rig count at 670 in the current week, compared to 674 recorded the previous week. Rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were lower by 34 than the 704 actively deployed in the same week last year.

This week’s change was driven by a drop in Canada, where the count fell by seven to 123, compared to 120 reported a year earlier. In the United States, the count increased by 3 to 547; however, it remained below 584 rigs recorded a year ago.

Rigs in inland waters rose by one to three. In contrast, rigs on land fell by six to 525 while offshore rigs climbed by eight to 19.

By trajectory, directional rigs in the U.S. edged up by five to 45, while horizontal rigs fell by four to 480 and vertical rigs remained unchanged at 12 for the second consecutive week.

Analysis: Iran War May Cause Lasting Demand Destruction

The oil supply disruption of 2026 caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has upended the global energy outlook, reversing a projected oversupply to shortage instead.

Just six months ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a potential crude glut of 4 million bpd for this year. With the first quarter over now, the agency projects a 5.1 million bpd global draw for the second quarter as the largest oil supply disruption in history becomes entrenched.

The outage has so far removed around 3% of yearly global oil supply from the market, with the market finding itself in a steep deficit since. The crisis has not only fundamentally changed supply outlooks, but soaring prices and logistical constraints are likely to stymy demand growth even further.

The IEA now expects annual global oil demand to contract for the first time since the pandemic. The loss of millions of barrels per day of crude supply forced refiners east of the Suez to throttle runs and cut back on their use of crude. Refinery runs dropped by 6 million bpd month-on-month in April while global crude inputs is expected to be 1 million bpd lower than in 2025, the IEA’s latest monthly oil market report estimated.

For the second quarter, the Paris-based energy watchdog expects a 1.5 million bpd decline in global oil and fuel demand.

Impact from the crisis is not just limited to the consumption of now shut-in flows from the Persian Gulf. Oil prices in March saw the largest monthly increase in history and have for most of the past two months been at their highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Front-month Brent futures have not closed below $90 bbl during the conflict. Compared to $72.48 bbl the day before Israel launched its first attacks on Iran in late February. The rally in crude led to soaring fuel prices, which along with the loss of 5 million bpd of refined product flows from the Middle East, were compounded by a sizable slump in fuel production as refiners were forced to slow operations. Persistently high U.S. pump prices had in the past led to drops in demand and may deter non-essential travel this time just as the United States heads into main demand season.

Diesel the Most Affected

Prior to the conflict, U.S. gasoline demand was already forecast to find itself slightly below year-ago levels in 2026 as alternative fuels, electric vehicles (EV) penetration and engine efficiency gains more than compensated the increase in road travel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its latest short-term energy outlook, forecast 2026 gasoline consumption to contract by 1.4% year-on-year, expecting an average retail price of $3.7 gallon, more than 19% higher than in 2025. Since the outbreak of the war, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline at the pump has risen by close to $1.1 gallon, or more than 38%. 

Moving into the year, U.S. diesel and jet fuel consumption, in contrast to gasoline demand, was expected to set new records.  The recent rallies in middle distillate prices, which dwarfed the one in gasoline, however, may prevent this trend from continuing.

EIA data show that the average on-highway diesel price jumped to $5.643 gallon by early April and remained above $5.35 gallon at the end of the month, some 40% higher than pre-war levels.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz from blockades imposed as a result of the Middle East conflict has led to outsized impact on diesel compared to light distillates. This has prompted the EIA to forecast a 31% year-on-year increase in diesel retail prices, compared to a 12% growth rate in its March report.

Consequently, the EIA flipped its distillate fuel oil consumption forecast from a 0.6% year-on-year expansion to a 0.4% decline. Jet fuel consumption expectations were adjusted from a growth of 0.9% to a 0.1% contraction.

The longer the ongoing disruption lasts, the higher the impact that prices will have on fuel demand. Inflationary pressures from high energy prices are threatening a fragile recovery in energy-intensive industries and hurt consumers’ spending power. They also make it more difficult for central banks to counter a consequent economic slowdown with monetary easing.

The detrimental effects the largest oil supply crisis in history can have on demand growth are not limited to the near-term either. The events of the past two months may compel policymakers in major economies overly reliant on energy imports from the Middle East like China to speed up their transition away from fossil fuels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago accelerated this process in the European Union. Back then, however, physical supply losses were limited, with the continent replacing most of its former Russian crude and diesel imports with flows from the Middle East.

This time, Europe can only turn to the U.S. to ease, but not resolve, the shortage. If the disruption is here to last, the EU may have, bar a return to Russian oil and gas, no choice but to implement energy consumption-limiting policies and lay plans for a faster phasing out of oil and gas.

U.S. oil and refined product exports are set to stay elevated for the duration of the supply disruption, and in combination with domestic demand ramping up may leave inventories precariously low come peak driving season.

Chevron Q1 Profit DN 37% on Mideast Impact, Trade Losses

Chevron reported on Friday (5/1) that first quarter earnings fell 37% from a year ago to $2.21 billion, partly due to production impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.

Chevron also reported that:

• Earnings were at $2.77 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $3.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.
• Upstream earnings were higher at $3.91 billion in the latest quarter, benefiting from the integration of Hess assets and higher production volumes in the Permian Basin despite lower natural gas realizations. Upstream earnings were $3.04 billion in the prior quarter and $3.76 billion a year ago.
• In the U.S., net oil-equivalent production averaged 2.02 million bpd during the quarter, rising above 2.0 million bpd for the third consecutive quarter, supported by record output in the Permian and steady performance in the Gulf of Mexico. That output compared with 2.06 million bpd in the prior quarter and 1.64 million bpd in the year-ago period.
• International net oil-equivalent production averaged 1.83 million bpd during the latest quarter, compared with 1.99 million bpd in the three months prior and 1.72 million bpd in the first quarter of 2025.
• Production in the latest quarter was higher than a year ago largely due to the acquisition of Hess Corporation and growth in the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin. That was partly offset by downtime at the company’s 50%-owned Kazakhstan affiliate Tengizchevroil and curtailments in the Middle East, particularly in Israel and the partitioned zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
• The U.S. realized price for petroleum liquids was $51.94 bbl in the latest quarter compared with $42.99 in the prior quarter and $55.26 a year ago. The international realized price was $77.59 bbl versus $57.53 in the prior three months and $67.69 in the year-ago period. The average price of Brent crude, meanwhile, rose to $81 bbl from $64 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $76 in the first quarter of 2025.

Exxon Q1 2026 Profit DN 45% Y-o-Y Despite High Oil Prices

ExxonMobil reported on Friday (05/01) that net profit fell 45% year-year in the first quarter of 2026 to $4.2 billion, weighed down by disruptions from the Middle East conflict among other factors, despite high oil prices and record production in Guyana.

ExxonMobil also stated that:

• That quarterly net profit was $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $7.7 billion in the first quarter a year ago.
• Generated earnings in the first quarter were $8.8 billion when excluding identified items and timing effects, reflecting improved capture of value from a diverse and expanding global portfolio.
• Results were pressured by approximately $3.9 billion in unfavorable timing effects related to derivatives despite robust underlying upstream performance as the U.S. realized price of crude rose to $70.12 bbl in the latest quarter from $58.57 in the fourth quarter of 2025.  
•  Higher crude realizations were partly offset by lower volumes from Middle East impacts, operational disruptions in Kazakhstan and from U.S. winter storm Fern, and higher depreciation expense.
• Net production in the first quarter of 2026 reached 4.6 million oil-equivalent bpd, with Guyana setting a new quarterly production record of more than 900.000 gross bpd, helping to balance output losses caused by geopolitical events in the Middle East.
• First-quarter refining throughput in the U.S. was 1.8 million bpd versus 1.9 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 million bpd in the year-ago quarter. Global throughput was 3.5 million bpd versus 4.06 million bpd in the prior quarter and 3.8 million bpd year ago.

AAA Study: Extreme Temperatures Drain EV and HEVs

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) suffer meaningful efficiency losses in extreme temperatures — with cold weather delivering the steepest blow, according to a study of the American Automobile Association (AAA) released on Friday (5/1).

AAA tested six vehicles — including the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Tesla Model Y, Toyota Prius, Honda CR-V Hybrid, and Hyundai Tucson Hybrid — at 20°F, 75°F, and 95°F.

At 20°F, BEVs saw a 35.6% drop in efficiency (MPGe) and a 39% reduction in calculated range compared to the 75°F baseline. Hybrids fared better but still lost 22.8% in fuel economy under the same frigid conditions, the AAA study showed.

Hot weather (95°F) proved less damaging: BEVs lost 10.4% in MPGe and 8.5% in range, while hybrids declined 12% in fuel economy.

Cold-weather BEV operating costs rose by $32.11 per 1,000 miles at home charging rates and $76.93 per 1,000 miles at commercial charging stations. HEV costs increased $28.44 per 1,000 miles in the cold, according to the study.

Public charging stations nationwide have increased from about 55,000 in 2022 to roughly 80,000 as of today, AAA said. 

LA Jet Fuel Basis Slides by 15cts on Low Availability

The basis for prompt Los Angeles jet fuel weakened for the second consecutive session Friday (5/1), slipping by 15cts to a 60cts premium above June NYMEX ULSD futures, extending the market’s retreat from last week’s record highs.
Jet fuel extended losses after Thursday’s drop drove prices down by 15cts to a 75cts premium above June ULSD futures, reversing a brief rebound earlier in the week that had lifted the basis to a 95cts premium. Los Angeles jet fuel had climbed to a record $1.10 gallon premium last week before the rally lost momentum.
Los Angeles diesel traded at a 13ct premium to June NYMEX ULSD futures, down by 12cts on the session, signaling softer strength across the middle distillate complex.
Despite the recent pullback, traders continue to cite constrained refining capacity as the underlying driver, with the shutdown of Phillips 66’s 139,000 bpd Los Angeles refinery and the planned closure of Valero’s 145,000 bpd Benicia refinery tightening supply across the West Coast system.