MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News April 16th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— CFTC: WTI Net Longs Up After Session Highs Above $100

— Historic Week in LA Jet Fuel Usurps Post-Covid Boom

— Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Down by 7

— BJ’s Wholesale Makes Texas Gas Station Debut

— Analysis: USWC Refineries Key to Summer Jet Fuel, Gasoline

— Analysis: Crude Price May Stay High Even With Iran War End 

— U.S. Weekly Rack ULSD Falls 20.1cts; Gasoline Rises 8.82cts

NEWS:

CFTC: WTI Net Longs Up After Session Highs Above $100

Money managers’ bullish bets on NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude grew during the week ended April 14 as the U.S. oil benchmark routinely hit session highs above $100 bbl on events related to the Iran war, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed Friday (4/17).

Net longs in NYMEX gasoline and distillates held by money managers, meanwhile, shrank, indicating less bullish positions in both.

Net shorts in natural gas also fell, although this signaled a less bearish mood for managed money in that space.

In WTI, noncommercial long positions rose by 8,853 contracts to 390,468, the CFTC said in its weekly Commitment of Traders report for the week ended April 14. Noncommercial short positions rose by 4,465 contracts to 183,927. This caused net noncommercial longs in WTI to grow by 4,388 to 206,541.

Open interest in WTI rose by 56,635 contracts to 2,094,492.

Those moves came as the front-month contract in NYMEX WTI persistently hit session highs above $100 bbl between April 8 and 13, in four trading sessions covered by the CFTC’s COT report.

In NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures, noncommercial long positions fell by 4,531 contracts to 75,722, while short positions rose by 1,296 contracts to 21,957. This caused the noncommercial net long position to shrink by 5,827 contracts to 53,765.

Open interest in gasoline was up by 16,878 contracts to 337,375.

In NYMEX ULSD futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 848 contracts to 35,740, while short positions rose by 2,129 contracts to 28,134. These changes caused the noncommercial net long position in ULSD to shrink by 1,281 contracts to 7,606.

Open interest in ULSD rose by 14,486 contracts to 243,365.

In NYMEX natural gas futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 23,470 contracts to 236,339 while short positions rose by 26,371 to 423,227. That caused the net short position in natural gas to shrink by 2,901 contracts to 186,888.

Open interest in natural gas rose by 26,377 contracts to 1,585,240.

Historic Week in LA Jet Fuel Usurps Post-Covid Boom

It has been a relentless week of gains in Los Angeles jet fuel as West Coast refinery disruptions and crude supply tightened by the Middle East conflict triggered a rally that surpassed the post-pandemic boom of 2022.

Since Tuesday, the basis for Los Angeles jet fuel has pushed higher session after session, reaching a historic $1 premium over May NYMEX ULSD futures by Thursday.

The 57cts gain on the week began with a 32cts surge on Tuesday that initially took the basis to 75cts premium. That was followed by Wednesday’s 15cts rise that drove the premium to 90cts, matching levels last seen on November 22, 2023, when Los Angeles jet fuel peaked amid the full recovery in air travel from Covid-era demand destruction.

The rally did not stop there. By Thursday (4/16), the differential broke through the three-digit range for the first time ever, underscoring just how tight supply conditions for Los Angeles jet fuel had become.
By Friday (4/17), the premium was back to 90cts – lower but still elevated.

In terms of absolute pricing, Los Angeles jet fuel stands near $4.40 gallon, well below the peaks seen during the post-Covid high of $7.60 gallon in early 2022.
Despite that, the market’s current strength on the back of the supply squeeze in crude caused by the Iran war contrasts with the volatility seen in the post-pandemic boom.

DTN data shows the initial collapse in air travel six years ago pushed Los Angeles jet fuel down to roughly 33cts gallon, as airlines grounded flights and global mobility slowed to a near standstill.

After the 2022 spike to $7.60 gallon, reflecting the rapid recovery in air travel and tightening global fuel supply, Los Angeles witnessed turbulent price action, sliding to around $4 gallon by January 2026, a month before the outbreak of the Iran war.

Today, the market sits somewhere between those extremes.

Still, traders say this week’s story was less about demand and more about supply constraints. With plant closures, maintenance events and intermittent disruptions limiting production at West Coast refineries, jet fuel has found itself climbing higher almost by default, one step and one session at a time.

Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Down by 7

North American energy drilling activity declined by seven rigs this week, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly report released Friday (4/17).

The report shows the regional rig count at 673 in the current week, compared to 680 recorded the previous week. Rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were lower than the 719 actively deployed in the same week of last year.

This week’s change was largely driven by declines in Canada, where the count fell by five to 130, and from 134 a year ago. In the U.S., the count dropped by two to 543.

A year ago, U.S. rigs totaled 585. This week in the U.S., rigs in inland waters rose by one to two, while offshore rigs dropped by two to 12.

Rigs on land fell by one to 529. By trajectory, directional rigs in the U.S. fell by four to 46, while horizontal rigs fell by one to 482 and vertical rigs remained unchanged at 12.

BJ’s Wholesale Makes Texas Gas Station Debut

BJ’s Wholesale Club announced Friday (4/17) its entry into the Texas fuel market with the opening of a gas station at its Forney location.

As an opening promotion, the club located along the 11150 E US Highway will offer discounted fuel for a day on April 22 to BJ’s members. On that day, they will be allowed to pump gasoline at $2 gallon with a maximum fill up of 30 gallons. That compares with the average Gulf Coast gasoline price of $3.741 gallon for the week ended April 13, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Analysis: USWC Refineries Key to Summer Jet Fuel, Gasoline

Refinery closures and operational disruptions across California are tightening fuel supply along the West Coast, with market participants increasingly tying refinery reliability to historic jet fuel premiums and gasoline already at above $5 gallon ahead of summer travels.

The shift is becoming more visible as major refineries wind down operations and fuel prices surged steadily from the conflict in the Middle East.

As of Thursday (4/16), the basis for prompt Los Angeles jet fuel traded at a historic $1 premium above May NYMEX ULSD futures, surging 42cts over three sessions. Market participants noted tightening regional supply from refinery capacity declines and demand for aviation fuel building ahead of the peak travel season.

West Coast gasoline, meanwhile, averaged $ $5.377 gallon for the week ended April 13, up 45% on the year, as per U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

The price gains coincide with Valero Energy’s progress with plans to idle refining operations at its 145,000 bpd Benicia refinery through a phased approach, beginning with processing units earlier this year. The company said most refining units are expected to be properly idled by April 2026 following mandatory state inspections that could not be deferred.

Valero added that the Benecia refinery will continue producing gasoline while working down inventories and anticipates importing additional gasoline volumes into the Bay Area to help meet contractual supply obligations during the transition. The company also said it is evaluating long term strategic options for the facility while offering employees transfers to other locations or outplacement support.

The Benicia shutdown follows the earlier closure of Phillips 66’s 139,000 bpd Los Angeles refinery, together removing a substantial share of refining capacity from California’s already tight fuel system. Market participants say the loss of capacity has reduced the region’s flexibility to respond to routine disruptions.

Flaring Worry

Operational reliability has also come into sharper focus. The latest flaring event on the West Coast occurred March 18, 2026, when PBF Energy reported an unplanned activity at its 155,000 bpd Torrance refinery tied to a utility power failure that temporarily halted operations for a portion of the plant.

While the incident was resolved, traders say repeated flaring events are becoming more consequential as fewer refineries remain online to offset supply interruptions.

“We ought to expect even more flaring and price volatility and refinery closures,” a Los Angeles jet fuel trader said, noting that refinery dynamics were directly influencing prices.

The broader concern is that reduced refining capacity could make fuel markets more sensitive to disruptions during periods of high demand.

The EIA has warned that declining in-state production will increase reliance on imported fuel supplies, introducing more logistical risks and cost pressures to the system.

For California travelers, that may translate to higher airline ticket prices and costlier fill-ups at gas pumps this summer.

With fewer refineries operating and operational disruptions becoming more impactful, analysts say refinery conditions, not just crude prices, were increasingly shaping the outlook for West Coast fuel markets in 2026.

Analysis: Crude Price May Stay High Even With Iran War End  

Amid the ongoing largest oil supply disruption in history, the global supply balance is set for a steep deficit in the first half of 2026, laying the ground for potentially high crude prices averaging at above $70 bbl through the year.

Forecasters expected a sizable crude-overhang moving into the year as global supply additions were set to continue to outpace demand growth. While this phenomenon is likely to be even more pronounced given the impact of persistent high oil prices, it is dwarfed by the 12 to 15 million bpd of oil and refined product supply cut off from the global market for a month and a half.

An interim relief to the supply squeeze is expected from diplomatic resolutions and an imminent resumption of flows blockaded by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Friday declared the waterway open to commercial traffic amid a ceasefire on Lebanon by Israel, and while Tehran negotiates with the end the U.S. its own close to the Middle East conflict. While crude prices tumbled more than 10% on the Hormuz’s conditional reopen, they remain about 50% higher on the year, and could remain volatile pending further negotiations. We estimate an average above $70 bbl for spot crude prices over the next few months.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slashed its global production forecasts for the first two quarters of the year in its latest monthly outlook – the second time it has done so during the seven-week long war. While the EIA sees demand impacted by high prices, revising global demand in Q2 downward by 800,000 bpd from the previous forecast, it also lowered global production expectations by 6.6 million bpd to 99.2 million bpd. This leads to a 5.1 million bpd deficit in the second quarter and a much smaller-than-expected crude overhang in Q1 of just 400,000 bpd. The model assumes oil output to be restored partially in the third quarter and fully in the fourth quarter, which, averaged over the year, implies a 300,000-bpd deficit.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which last year was one of the loudest voices warning of record oversupply in 2026 and 2027, made even deeper cuts to its demand and supply forecasts in its latest oil market report published Tuesday (4/14). The Paris-based energy watchdog now expects widespread price-induced demand destruction, leading global oil demand to contract by 80,000 bpd this year, compared to previous expectations of a 640,000-bpd expansion. The agency’s global supply growth forecast flipped from a 1.1 million bpd expansion to a 1.5 million bpd decline. Despite the steep deficit expected for the second quarter and the more than 2 million bpd downward adjustment to the global oil balance, the IEA still sees an oversupplied oil market this year.

A quickly enacted series of stop-gap measures was able to soften the blow to the global balance. The highest global inventories in five years, coordinated emergency stock releases and producers rerouting some oil flows to ports outside of the Persian Gulf absorbed a portion of the supply shock. Prolonged high prices may negatively impact demand in the short and medium term, alleviating part of the current imbalance. At the same time, they could incentivize higher output from non-OPEC producers like the United States, which recently saw an uptick in well drilling after a prolonged rut.

This effect, however, won’t provide immediate relief given the typical 3- to 6-month delay between investment decision and extraction of the first barrel. Last month, we wrote that “oil prices are likely to stay elevated for long enough to justify new wells”. The EIA, which only two months ago saw U.S. oil production having peaked and expected it to shrink by 2%, last week again revised higher its U.S. output forecast, estimating it to expand by 3.2% between 2026 and 2027 and to top 14 million bpd by the end of next year.

Both the EIA and IEA imply prolonged inventory draws and high oil prices throughout the year in their forecasts, even if most supply is restored in short order. Some supplies may take months to return to pre-war levels or may even be permanently lost, given the scale of destruction to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, including oil and gas fields and processing plants, refineries, pipelines and export terminals. Consequently, the current imbalance is likely to outlive the seven-week closure thus far of the Strait of Hormuz, until prices take their toll on oil demand and non-OPEC supplies rise considerably.

U.S. Weekly Rack ULSD Falls 20.1cts; Gasoline Rises 8.82cts

U.S. Weekly Rack ULSD Falls 20.1cts; Ga

04/17/2026 08:20

DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) – Wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and gasoline moved higher Friday (4/17), extending gains from the prior session. On a weekly basis, however, diesel declined while gasoline moved higher, as physical markets adjusted to easing geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict.

Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $3.9614 gallon, up 4.29cts from Thursday’s $3.9185 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.3137 gallon, up 6.78cts from $3.2459 gallon.

On a week-over-week basis, ULSD rack prices declined 20.13cts from $4.1627 gallon on Friday (4/10), while gasoline increased 8.82cts from $3.2255 gallon over the same period. The divergence reflects continued softness in distillates versus a firmer gasoline complex.

Futures prices moved sharply lower Friday morning. Front-month May NYMEX ULSD futures fell 24.89cts to $3.5840 gallon, while May RBOB gasoline futures declined 7.17cts to $3.0920 gallon. WTI crude for May delivery dropped $4.71 to $89.94 bbl.

The pullback in futures followed renewed signs of de-escalation, with reports pointing to a temporary ceasefire agreement that could ease disruptions across the Middle East. The shift in tone has reduced near-term supply risk, particularly around flows tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and has weighed on crude and refined product pricing. Iran on Friday declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to commercial traffic during the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Rack prices showed a more measured response to the Middle East developments, with modest increases across most regions early Friday, suggesting physical markets were adjusting more gradually after the volatility seen earlier in the month.

On Friday, East Coast ULSD rose 6.23cts to $3.9750 gallon, while Gulf Coast prices increased 6.18cts to $3.9269 gallon. Midwest values climbed 3.75cts to $3.7785 gallon, while West Coast ULSD rose 5.01cts to $4.7974 gallon, maintaining the strongest regional premium. Rocky Mountain prices edged slightly lower by 0.81cts to $4.2067 gallon.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $3.9614 gallon, PADD 5 held the widest premium at 83.60cts above the U.S. benchmark, followed by PADD 4 at 24.53cts above. PADD 1 traded near parity with the national average, while PADD 2 remained the deepest discount at 18.29cts below the benchmark, followed by PADD 3 at 3.45cts below.

On conventional unleaded gasoline racks, all regions moved higher Friday. East Coast gasoline rose 10.09cts to $3.0250 gallon, while Midwest prices increased 5.25cts to $2.7914 gallon. Gulf Coast values climbed 5.19cts to $2.9572 gallon, while Rocky Mountain prices rose 2.81cts to $3.2216 gallon. West Coast gasoline posted the largest move, up 7.94cts to $4.0017 gallon, maintaining the only premium position.

Compared with the national gasoline average of $3.3137 gallon, PADD 5 remained the only region trading at a premium, at 68.80cts above the benchmark. All other regions held discounts, led by PADD 2 at 52.23cts below the national average, followed by PADD 3 at 35.65cts and PADD 1 at 28.87cts. PADD 4 traded just slightly below the national benchmark.

Premium gasoline rack prices increased across all regions, broadly in line with conventional gasoline. West Coast premiums remained elevated at $4.3937 gallon, continuing to reflect tighter regional supply conditions.

The weekly move highlights a market beginning to separate by product, with gasoline finding support while distillates continue to adjust lower from earlier highs. Futures have reacted quickly to shifting geopolitical signals, but physical pricing is moving at a slower pace, particularly in diesel. At the same time, forward structure has eased but remains supportive, with ULSD backwardation holding near 13cts and RBOB above 7cts, suggesting prompt supply conditions are loosening at the margin but not fully resolved.