MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News April 13th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— NFCU: Gas Prices Drive Car Ownership Costs at Record High
— OPEC Sees Steady 2026 Demand, Q2 Dip Over Iran War

— U.S. Rack ULSD Falls 14cts; Gasoline Edges Higher

NEWS:

NFCU: Gas Prices Drive Car Ownership Costs at Record High

Car ownership costs are being driven to record highs by surging gasoline prices that are outpacing wage growth, the Navy Federal Credit Union (NFCU) reported Monday (4/13).

The NFCU’s cost of car ownership index rose 4.7% in March alone as gasoline prices climbed 21.2% month over month, the union’s data showed.

The index has surged 47.6% since January 2020, while wages increased only 31.5% in that span.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported the national average for gasoline at $4.12 gallon last week, up $1.31 or 47% on the year.

OPEC Sees Steady 2026 Demand, Q2 Dip Over Iran War

OPEC reported Monday (4/13) that it expected global oil demand growth to remain steady at 1.4 million bpd for 2026, though the group revised its second-quarter forecast lower by 500,000 bpd due to “transitory weakness” from Middle East developments.

Global oil demand is now projected to average 105.07 million bpd in the second quarter, down from the 105.57 million bpd forecast last month. This quarterly dip is expected to be offset by stronger demand in the second half of the year, driven by non-OECD regions like China and India.

The April report highlighted significant production shifts, with total crude output from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) dropping by 7.7 million bpd in March to average 35.06 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s production fell to 7.8 million bpd in March, a sharp month-on-month decrease of 2.314 million bpd according to secondary sources.

Despite production declines, Venezuelan output saw a recovery, increasing by 79,000 bpd in March to reach 988,000 bpd. Meanwhile, global refinery intakes fell to 77.1 million bpd in March, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, primarily due to cut off crude flows from the Persian Gulf to Asia.

On the U.S. Gulf Coast, refining margins surged as middle distillate crack spreads reached multi-year highs. USGC gasoline crack spreads against WTI rose by $13.29 bbl in March to average $41.16 bbl, supported by tight supplies and healthy exports.

U.S. refinery processing rates increased by 380,000 bpd in March to average 16.5 million bpd as facilities returned from maintenance. This rise occurred even as trade disruptions pushed dirty tanker spot freight rates to record levels, with Suezmax rates on the USGC-to-Europe route jumping 104%.

OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3.1% for 2026. While the report noted that geopolitical tensions have disrupted trade and tourism in the Middle East, it emphasized that physical market fundamentals remain firm.

U.S. Rack ULSD Falls 14cts; Gasoline Edges Higher

Wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) declined Monday (4/13) while gasoline moved modestly higher, diverging from stronger futures as markets reacted to renewed geopolitical escalation following the breakdown of ceasefire talks with Iran.

Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $4.0230 gallon, down 13.97cts from Friday’s $4.1627 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.2630 gallon, up 3.75cts from $3.2255 gallon.

Futures prices moved sharply higher Monday morning. Front-month May NYMEX ULSD futures rose 33.04cts to $4.0920 gallon, while May RBOB gasoline futures increased 13.83cts to $3.1756 gallon. WTI crude for May delivery climbed $7.48 to $104.05 bbl.

The move higher in futures followed renewed tensions after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed over the weekend, with reports indicating the U.S. could move toward restricting access to Iranian ports. That shift has brought supply risk back into focus, particularly around flows tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the rebound in futures, rack prices showed a more mixed response, with diesel continuing to adjust lower after last week’s sharp pullback, while gasoline posted modest increases.

ULSD racks declined across most regions Monday. East Coast ULSD fell 16.72cts to $4.0110 gallon, while Midwest prices declined 13.41cts to $3.8944 gallon. West Coast values dropped 16.86cts to $5.0362 gallon, maintaining the strongest regional premium. Gulf Coast ULSD was reported at $3.9390 gallon, below the national average, while PADD 4 was the only region to move higher, rising 3.05cts to $4.1924 gallon.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $4.0230 gallon, PADD 5 held the widest premium at $1.0132 above the U.S. benchmark, followed by PADD 4 at 16.94cts above. PADD 1 traded near parity with the national average, while PADD 2 remained at a 12.86cts discount and PADD 3 at an 8.40cts discount.

On conventional unleaded gasoline racks, all regions moved higher Monday. East Coast gasoline rose 2.73cts to $2.9345 gallon, while Midwest prices increased 2.20cts to $2.7540 gallon. Gulf Coast values edged up 0.43cts to $2.9265 gallon, while Rocky Mountain prices climbed 3.78cts to $3.1653 gallon. West Coast gasoline recorded the largest increase, up 8.70cts to $3.8982 gallon, maintaining the only premium position.

Compared with the national gasoline average of $3.2630 gallon, PADD 5 remained the only region trading at a premium, at 63.52cts above the benchmark. All other regions held discounts, led by PADD 2 at 50.90cts below the national average, followed by PADD 1 at 32.85cts and PADD 3 at 33.65cts.

Premium gasoline rack prices increased across all regions, broadly in line with conventional gasoline. West Coast premiums remained elevated at $4.2489 gallon, while other regions posted more modest increases.

The divergence between higher futures and softer ULSD rack prices suggests physical markets are still working through last week’s adjustment, even as paper markets begin to rebuild risk premium tied to renewed geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, structure remains supportive, with ULSD backwardation above 24cts and RBOB above 8cts, indicating prompt supply remains relatively tight despite the recent volatility.