MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News April 6th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

—  API: Crude Stocks Up 3.7M Bbl, Rise 6th Week in Row

—  PNW ULSD Basis Spikes by 9.5cts on Demand

— Analysis: At $4 Gas, EVs Without Incentives Still Struggle

— EIA: Henry Hub Spot Price Seen 4% Below March STEO

— EIA: STEO Expects Brent to Average $88 bbl in Q2 26

— EIA: Oil and Petroleum Product Prices Soar in Q1

— EIA: U.S. Regular Gasoline Average Climbs 13cts on Week

— EIA: U.S. Diesel Prices Extend Gains, Up 9th Straight Week

NEWS:

API: Crude Stocks Up 3.7M Bbl, Rise 6th Week in Row

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has cited a sixth consecutive weekly build in commercial crude oil stocks in its reading for the week ended April 3, energy market participants with access to the data told DTN on Tuesday (4/7).

The API reported that commercial crude oil stocks rose by 3.719 million bbl, according to the traders who saw the data. That extended a string of prior builds over five weeks that led to an accumulation of 36.156 million bbl.

Notwithstanding the broader inventory climb in crude, the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for NYMEX WTI futures, saw a decline of 600,000 bbl last week, according to the data. In the prior week ended March 27, Cushing saw build of 800,000 bbl.

Gasoline inventories also fell last week, by 4.0 million bbl, extending the 3.2 million bbl build decline from the previous week.

Distillate fuel supply slid by 600,000 bbl, adding to decrease of 1.0 million bbl in the prior reporting period.

PNW ULSD Basis Spikes by 9.5cts on Demand

Pacific Northwest ultra-low sulfur (ULSD) basis surged by 9.5cts on Tuesday (4/7) to a 58cts premium over May NYMEX ULSD futures contract, on firm buying interest amid supply tightness.

Bids for PNW ULSD basis were heard in the market at a 57.5ct premium, with no trades confirmed at that level. 

The move, driven by firm demand, had its basis pegged at a 48.5cts premium to May futures contract in the previous trading session on Monday (4/6).

Refinery closures are contributing to tightness, including the planned fourth-quarter 2025 shutdown of Phillips 66’s 139,000-bpd Wilmington, California, refinery and Valero’s pending closure of its 145,000-bpd Benicia, California, refinery by end of April 2026.

Analysis: At $4 Gas, EVs Without Incentives Still Struggle

Gasoline prices rising from the Middle East conflict are once again raising questions about whether consumers will accelerate the shift to electric vehicles (EVs).

California gasoline has risen almost $1 gallon over the past six months, with pump prices in the state averaging $5.396 gallon during the week ended April 7, versus $4.568 gallon in the first week of October 2025.  In some parts of Los Angeles, prices at the pump are already above $8 gallon.

In West Coast areas outside of California, gasoline averages $4.95 gallon, putting both the region and state well above the U.S. national average of $4.12.

Higher crude prices linked to geopolitical tensions, like the current conflict over Iran, typically push pump prices higher and encourage interest in EVs.

However, with the Trump administration eliminating a range of incentives for purchasing and charging EVs and rolling back fuel efficiency standards as well, the transition to electric from gasoline may be slower than previously expected.

Stretched Refiners

Many on the West Coast could continue paying high prices at the pump, supporting gasoline demand in a region that probably needs EVs more than elsewhere in the country due to a highly stretched refining industry.

On top of daily disruptions in the form of flares, California’s refining system is under further pressure from a wave of refinery closures, including Phillips 66’s 139,000 bpd Los Angeles facility, that closed late last year, and Valero’s 145,000 bpd Benicia refinery, which is to shutter this month.  Combined, this eliminates 17% of California’s refining capacity, squeezing a market already operating with limited flexibility, where even small shifts in demand can have an outsized impact on prices.

The cumulative effect of the changes to U.S. EV policy is that “we will see fewer electric vehicles and hybrids going forward,” said Mark Jacobsen, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, who has been studying the transition. Recovery for EVs and hybrids will be “a very slow, long-cycle effect,” he added.

Nationwide, EV sales fell nearly 28% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 from 240,000 to 250,000, while used EV sales are expected to have grown 12% in the same period, data from Cox Automotive shows.

In California, EV sales were steady in the fourth quarter of last year, accounting for 20.1% of all new-car registrations, little changed from 21.4% a year ago.

“Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox, said in a sales update published on March 25. “Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry.”

E15, Before EV

If gasoline prices keep climbing, analysts say drivers in the U.S. West Coast are as likely to look for cheaper refueling options than making the steep upgrade to EVs.

In California, momentum is gaining for a statewide rollout of the E15, the gasoline blend with15% ethanol. The E15 is expected to retail at 20cts gallon below E10 – the regular gasoline with 10% ethanol.

Biofuel advocates say the higher ethanol blend will allow refiners to stretch supply during tight market conditions in California, where refinery outages were a constant theme even before the supply disruptions related to the Iran war that broke out on February 27.

Globally, nonetheless, the long-term trend still points toward electrification. The International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2025 that electric vehicles could account for more than half of global car sales by 2035, displacing roughly 10 million bpd of oil demand.

But adoption rates vary widely by region. China, for example, is moving much faster than the United States. “In China, EVs in 2025 were around 53% of those new vehicle sales,” Jacobsen said.

EIA: Henry Hub Spot Price Seen 4% Below March STEO

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its U.S. natural gas price outlook for this year as higher inventories and steady production growth eases market tightness, the agency’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday (4/7) showed.
The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $3.67/MMBtu in 2026, according to the EIA’s STEO for April. That was about 4% lower than the $3.81/MMBtu it forecast in its March STEO, although still higher than the $3.53/MMBtu that natural gas averaged in 2025. 

The downward revision reflects stronger supply growth and storage levels after a winter withdrawal season where inventories ended with historical averages higher than last month’s outlook.
For 2027, the EIA expects Henry Hub prices to average about $3.59/MMBtu, also roughly 4% lower than last month’s outlook of $3.73/MMBtu. That is in line with continued production growth and expanding liquefied natural gas exports as supply growth outpaces demand over the next several years.
U.S. natural gas prices also faced limited upward pressure from international markets despite disruptions to global LNG trade tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, U.S. prices are expected to remain relatively insulated as LNG export facilities continue operating near peak capacity, limiting the ability to ship additional volumes abroad in the near term.  
U.S. natural gas inventories exited the withdrawal season in March at about 1,900 Bcf, roughly 3% above the five-year average, after storage levels rebounded due to rising production and relatively mild weather conditions late in the winter.  
The EIA STEO anticipates increased crude oil activity to drive higher associated natural gas production in the coming years. Marketed natural gas production is expected to increase 2% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, supported by stronger oil-directed drilling and infrastructure capacity that allows producers to bring more supply to market.

EIA: STEO Expects Brent to Average $88 bbl in Q2 26

The Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude oil spot price will climb from an average of $81 bbl in the first quarter of 2026 to an average of $115 bbl in the second quarter, before falling to $88 bbl  by the fourth quarter, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday (3/10). The agency forecasts Brent crude prices will average $76 bbl in 2027.

“We base this on the assumption that the conflict does not persist past April and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes but does not return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026,” EIA said.

According to the report, production shut-ins averaged 7.5 million bpd in March and will increase to a peak of 9.1 million bpd in April before gradually declining over the coming months. These disruptions imply a global inventory draw of 5.1 million b/d in 2Q26, the EIA stated.

On the demand side, the EIA anticipates global oil demand to grow to an average of 600,000 bpd in 2026, down from an average of 1.2 million bpd in February’s STEO. Once supply normalizes later in 2026, the agency expects global oil demand will rise by 1.6 million bpd in 2027 to 106.2 million bpd.

The EIA-STEO report projects U.S. crude oil inventories will remain above average, tempering the upward price pressure on WTI prices relative to Brent.

The agency expects the Brent-WTI spread to peak at $15 bbl in April – when production disruptions are most pronounced – and fall to $9 bbl on average in the third quarter of 2026 and $4 bbl in the fourth quarter when the majority of disruptions to global crude oil production and trade will dissipate.

Downstream, the EIA-STEO report expects U.S. retail gasoline prices to average $3.70 gallon in 2026 and $3.46 gallon in 2027, both up from $3.10 gallon in 2025. Diesel prices are forecast to average $4.80 gallon this year and $4.11 gallon in 2027, both up from $3.66 gallon in 2025.

EIA: Oil and Petroleum Product Prices Soar in Q1

Crude oil and petroleum prices rose steeply in the first quarter of the month, with Brent crude climbing from $61 bbl to $118 bbl in the same period, the largest price increase on an inflation-adjusted basis in data going back to 1988, the Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday (4/7).

The hike was driven by military action in the Middle East on February 28 and the subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In January and February, Brent prices steadily increased from $61 bbl to $72 bbl due to increasing risk of conflict in the Middle East, the EIA stated.

The price of Brent crude oil surpassed $100/b on March 12 and continued to generally increase throughout the month. After beginning the quarter at around $4 bbl, the Brent-WTI spread increased in March, peaking at $25 bbl on March 31 and averaging $11 bbl in the month, the highest in over five years.

Gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel spot prices increased rapidly in the first quarter following supply disruptions to Middle East exports of crude oil and petroleum products. On March 30, the U.S. average retail gasoline price of $3.99 gallon and U.S. average diesel price of $5.40 gallon were the highest in real terms in over two years.

Although gasoline prices have increased substantially, jet fuel and distillate prices have increased significantly more. Increasing U.S. exports to Europe, severe cold weather in the Northeast, strong trucking demand and declining renewable diesel output contributed to higher distillate demand or market tightness, the EIA said. 

The latest EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report estimates that U.S. refinery inputs in the first quarter exceeded the five-year (2021–25) range, averaging close to 2018–20 levels. Refinery utilization was above the five-year range during the first quarter of this year, according to the report.  Distillate crack spreads, a measure of the refinery margins for distillate—at New York Harbor averaged $1.42 gallon in March, its highest monthly level since 2022 and well above the 2021–25 five-year average of 68cts gallon, the EIA stated.

EIA: U.S. Regular Gasoline Average Climbs 13cts on Week

The national average for retail regular gasoline moved higher in the week ended April 6, with increases reported across most major regions, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed Tuesday (4/7).
The U.S. average for regular gasoline climbed by 13cts to $4.12 gallon last week, standing 87.7cts higher compared to the same week last year, the EIA’s weekly update on fuel pricing showed.
East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline increased by 18.6cts to $4 gallon in the week ended April 6, while standing 92.1cts higher than the same period last year.
Within the East Coast, New England (PADD 1A) increased by 15.5cts to $3.945 gallon week over week, standing 97.8cts higher than the same week of 2025.
Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) gasoline prices climbed by 18.8cts to $4.086 gallon last week, 90.2cts higher than the same week last year.
Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) gasoline prices grew by 19.3cts to $3.961 gallon in the profiled week, 92.2cts higher than year ago levels.
Midwest (PADD 2) prices rose by 6.2cts to $3.771 gallon last week, 66.8cts higher compared to the same period last year.
Prices for the same product at the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) spiked by 19.7cts to $3.787 gallon, 94.6cts higher than the previous year.
Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) gasoline fell by 2.4cts to $3.893 gallon last week, but remained 72.8cts higher year over year.
West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline prices climbed by 6.2cts to $5.396 gallon, standing $1.076 higher than the corresponding week last year.
Gasoline prices at West Coast less California increased by 7.6cts to $4.951 gallon, while standing $1.082 higher than year ago levels.

EIA: U.S. Diesel Prices Extend Gains, Up 9th Straight Week

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday (4/7) that retail diesel prices rose for a ninth consecutive week, climbing 24.2cts during the week ended April 6 to average $5.643 gallon.

The national average is up $2.004 gallon compared with the same time last year. Retail prices continue to trend higher across most regions as distillate markets remain tight, supported by firm global demand and persistent supply risks.

East Coast diesel prices rose 20.5cts to $5.740 gallon. Compared with the same time last year, this PADD 1 region showed a $2.027 gallon increase.

New England diesel prices rose 17.2cts to $5.997 gallon. This PADD 1A region climbed to $1.991 versus the same period last year.

The Central Atlantic witnessed a 14.6cts increase on the week. Prices in the PADD 1B region averaged $5.980 gallon, climbing $2.097 compared with the previous year.

Diesel prices in the Lower Atlantic averaged $5.624 gallon. This PADD 1C region reflects a 23.0cts increase on the week and a $2.004 gallon rise from the same time last year.

In the Midwest, diesel prices rose 19.9cts on the week. The PADD 2 region averaged $5.304 gallon, which was $1.725 gallon higher than levels seen a year earlier.

On the Gulf Coast, diesel climbed 31.0cts on the week to $5.415 gallon. Compared with the prior year, prices in PADD 3 were up $2.077 gallon.

Rocky Mountain diesel saw a 14.2cts increase on the week to $5.412 gallon. The PADD 4 region posted a $1.913 gallon increase versus the same time last year.

West Coast diesel prices rose 32.8cts on the week to average $6.924 gallon. Compared with the previous year, the PADD 5 region advanced by $2.606 gallon.

West Coast less California diesel climbed 31.0cts on a weekly basis to $6.366 gallon. This represented a $2.490 gallon increase from the same time last year.

California diesel itself rose 34.8cts on the week to $7.567 gallon. Prices in the state remain the highest in the nation, sitting at $2.740 gallon above levels seen at the same time last year.

U.S. Rack Gasoline Rises 2.46cts; ULSD Up 2.33cts

Wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and gasoline moved modestly higher Tuesday (4/7), extending Monday’s advance, as both physical and futures markets strengthened on renewed geopolitical escalation tied to the Iran war.

Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $4.5116 gallon, up 2.33cts from Monday’s $4.4883 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.4365 gallon, up 2.46cts from $3.4119 gallon.

Futures prices moved higher Tuesday morning. Front-month May NYMEX ULSD futures increased 17.54cts to $4.5038 gallon, while May RBOB gasoline futures rose 1.89cts to $3.3271 gallon. WTI crude for May delivery climbed $2.49 to $114.90 bbl.

Support in futures followed renewed escalation in the Middle East after Israeli strikes targeted Iranian infrastructure ahead of a U.S. deadline tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the U.S. reiterated the threat of broader action against Iran’s energy assets if the blockade remains in place, reinforcing concerns over prolonged disruptions to global supply flows.

That move higher in futures was more in line with what had been developing in physical markets, with rack prices continuing to push higher, though at a slower pace after Monday’s sharp jump.

ULSD racks were mixed but generally higher across regions Tuesday. East Coast ULSD rose to $4.6111 gallon, maintaining a premium of 9.95cts above the national average. Gulf Coast prices increased to $4.5344 gallon, while Midwest values climbed to $4.2320 gallon, though still holding a 27.96cts discount to the national benchmark. West Coast ULSD advanced to $5.5850 gallon, extending the strongest regional premium at $1.0734 above the U.S. average, while PADD 4 remained below the benchmark at $4.1635 gallon.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $4.5116 gallon, regional structure remained largely unchanged, with PADD 5 continuing to hold a wide premium, while the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions traded at discounts.

On conventional unleaded gasoline racks, all regions moved higher Tuesday. East Coast prices increased to $3.1859 gallon, while Gulf Coast values rose to $3.1857 gallon, both maintaining discounts of roughly 25cts to the national average. Midwest gasoline climbed to $2.8954 gallon, holding the deepest discount at 54.11cts below the benchmark. Rocky Mountain prices rose to $3.1829 gallon, while West Coast gasoline increased to $4.0418 gallon, maintaining the only premium position at 60.53cts above the national average.

Compared with the national gasoline average of $3.4365 gallon, regional differentials remained consistent, with PADD 2 continuing to reflect the weakest pricing structure and PADD 5 maintaining the strongest premium.

Premium gasoline rack prices also moved higher across regions, broadly in line with conventional gasoline, with West Coast values remaining elevated relative to other markets.

The continued strength across both futures and rack prices points to a market still driven by supply-side risk, with physical pricing increasingly reflecting the tighter backdrop. That tightness is also showing up in structure, with ULSD backwardation holding above 38cts and RBOB above 15cts, reinforcing signals of strong prompt demand and immediate supply needs across the refined products complex.