MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for March 30th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— Chicago Jet Basis Jumps 45cts, Highest Since October

— PNW Sub Oct Prem Basis Spikes by 13cts, Hits 10-Mo High

— EPA Locks in Record-High Biofuel Mandates for 2026–2027

— EIA: NGL 2025 Exports at Record 3.1M Bpd, Led by Ethane

— U.S. Rack Daily ULSD Up 18.80cts; Gasoline Rises 9.88cts

— U.S. Allows Russian Oil to Cuba, After Sanctions Waiver

NEWS:

Chicago Jet Basis Jumps 45cts, Highest Since October

DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) – Chicago jet fuel basis extended its rally on Monday (3/30), climbing by 43cts to a 45cts premium to May NYMEX ULSD futures, the highest in five-months, as tightening distillate fundamentals and persistent Gulf Coast strength continued to pull Midwest values higher.

Jet fuel basis in Chicago was traded at a 2cts premium to front-month ULSD futures for April delivery on Friday (3/30), reversing the average discount basis seen since October 31, when it reached a 75cents premium over the same benchmark. 

“Once Chicago flipped to a premium, it opened the door for a much sharper repricing,” a source familiar with Midwest refined product trading said. “Now it’s more about how high it needs to go to stay competitive with Gulf Coast barrels tied to export demand.”

Front-month ULSD futures were at $4.2525 gallon, up 1.61cts on the session, while the prompt ULSD structure remained backwardated, with the front-month contract holding a 13.51cts premium to the second month, reinforcing tight near-term supply conditions.

The sustained backwardation in ULSD futures, alongside distillate crack spreads holding above $90 bbl, continues to signal strong prompt demand and limited availability, supporting further strength in jet fuel pricing.

Chicago’s stronger basis reflects ongoing competition with Gulf Coast markets, where spot prices are increasingly tied to export economics, prompting inland buyers raise bids to secure supply and prevent further tightening.

PNW Sub Oct Prem Basis Spikes by 13cts, Hits 10-Mo High

Pacific Northwest Sub Octane Premium basis surged by 13cts on Monday (3/30) to a 58.5cts premium over May NYMEX ULSD futures contract, reaching a 10-month high due to high demand and limited supply.

Bids for PNW Sub Octane Premium basis were heard in the market at a 58ct premium, with no trades confirmed at that level. This was the steepest increase since May 29, when the basis was 60.25cts, according to DTN. So far in the year, PNW Sub Octane Premium basis has climbed 58.5cts, the same data showed. 

Today’s hike was driven by firm demand, with the same basis pegged at a 45.5cts premium to May futures contract in the previous trading session on Friday (3/27). 

Refinery closures are contributing to the tightness in the market, following the shutdown of Valero’s 145,000 bpd Benicia, California, refinery in late 2005 and the upcoming closure of 139,000 bpd Phillips 66 Wilmington refinery in April. 

EPA Locks in Record-High Biofuel Mandates for 2026–2027

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced its Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rule for biodiesel and renewable diesel production, which increases by more than 60% blending volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 compared to 2025, setting the highest levels in the program’s history.

The final rule sets advanced biofuel requirements at 10.82 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) in 2026, increasing to 10.98 billion RINs in 2027, according to an EPA statement released late Friday (3/27).

EPA will maintain the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 and 2027, “to provide continued certainty for American corn growers and ethanol producers,” the agency stated.

The rule also includes a 70% reallocation of small refinery exemptions granted for 2023 through 2025

EPA estimates that the rule will generate over $10 billion for rural economies and create over 100,000 new jobs in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors.

To meet the historic volume levels, EPA estimates that biodiesel and renewable diesel production and use will need to increase by more than 60 percent compared to 2025 volumes — the final year under the previous administration’s RFS framework.

Table: EPA RFS “Set 2” Final Rule 2026 & 2027

Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements (billion RINs unless noted)

Source: U.S. EPA, March 27, 2026

One RIN = one ethanol-equivalent gallon of renewable fuel

EIA: NGL 2025 Exports at Record 3.1M Bpd, Led by Ethane

U.S. natural gas liquids (NGL) exports reached a record 3.1 million bpd in 2025, driven by ethane which accounted for nearly a fifth of the volume, an analysis released on Monday (3/30) by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

Ethane exports averaged 579,000 bpd last year, growing by 92,000 bpd, or 19%, across nine different countries, according to the EIA, which analyzed gas liquids shipments for the different NGL products between January 2004 and December 2025.

China remained the primary buyer of U.S. ethane, receiving over 50% of waterborne ethane to feed new petrochemical crackers.

In terms of absolute percentage growth, natural gasoline led 2025 expansion by 22% to reach 176,000 bpd, followed by normal butane at 9% (535,000 bpd) and propane at 3% (1.8 million bpd).

NGL production itself has increased annually since 2005, fueled by global demand for petrochemical feedstocks and plastics, the EIA noted.

U.S. Rack Daily ULSD Up 18.80cts; Gasoline Rises 9.88cts

Wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and gasoline moved higher Monday (3/30), extending Friday’s increases, as physical markets strengthened alongside rising futures amid the escalation of the Iran war and expectations of global limited supplies.

Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $4.3006 gallon, up 18.80cts from Friday’s $4.1125 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.2231 gallon, up 9.88cts from $3.1243 gallon.

Futures prices also moved higher Monday morning. Front-month May NYMEX ULSD futures rose 10.93cts to $4.3466 gallon, while May RBOB gasoline futures increased 3.25cts to $3.2245 gallon. WTI crude for May delivery climbed $1.26 to $100.90 bbl.

Support in both futures and physical markets followed renewed geopolitical uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further escalation targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached, while also signaling that progress toward a potential agreement has been made. The mixed messaging has kept risk premium in place, with markets balancing the possibility of disruption against the chance of de-escalation.

ULSD racks increased across all regions on Monday, with the largest moves in PADD 1. East Coast ULSD rose 24.70cts to $4.5557 gallon, while Gulf Coast prices increased 20.31cts to $4.3776 gallon. West Coast values climbed 20.23cts to $5.4878 gallon, maintaining the strongest regional premium. Midwest ULSD moved 17.67cts higher to $3.8005 gallon, while PADD 4 posted the smallest increase, up 2.31cts to $4.1411 gallon.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $4.3006 gallon, PADD 5 held the widest premium at $1.1872 above the U.S. benchmark, followed by PADD 1 at 25.51cts above and PADD 3 at 7.70cts above. PADD 4 traded below the national average, while PADD 2 remained at the deepest discount at 50.01cts below the benchmark.

On conventional unleaded gasoline racks, most regions moved higher Monday. PADD 1 increased 11.43cts to $3.0240 gallon, while Gulf Coast prices rose 10.36cts to $3.0171 gallon. Midwest gasoline climbed 9.36cts to $2.6864 gallon, maintaining the deepest discount nationally. West Coast gasoline increased 7.82cts to $3.9984 gallon, holding the strongest premium, while PADD 4 was the only region to decline, falling 5.46cts to $3.0252 gallon.

Compared with the national gasoline average of $3.2231 gallon, PADD 5 remained the only region trading at a premium, at 77.53cts above the benchmark. All other regions held discounts, led by PADD 2 at 53.67cts below the national average, followed by PADD 3 at 20.60cts and PADD 1 at 19.91cts. PADD 4 also traded below the national benchmark.

Premium gasoline rack prices were mixed. East Coast, Midwest and Gulf Coast markets moved higher, while Rocky Mountain and West Coast prices edged lower. West Coast premiums remained elevated at $4.2649 gallon despite the decline.

Rising rack prices and futures suggests that physical markets are stabilizing after last week’s volatility, with supply risk still providing underlying support. At the same time, day-to-day direction remains sensitive to shifting geopolitical signals, as participants weigh both escalation threats and indications that a negotiated resolution remains on the table.

U.S. Allows Russian Oil to Cuba, After Sanctions Waiver

The Trump administration has allowed 100,000 tons of Russian oil to land as emergency aid in embargoed Cuba, marking its second relaxation of restrictions on Russian oil after a 30-day sanctions waiver, media reports said Monday (3/30).

Cuba had been heavily dependent on oil supplies from Venezuela but was effectively cut off from this since January, after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a military operation to depose Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Trump subsequently threatened to impose tariffs on any country that sent crude to Cuba, before approving the Russian cargo last week.

The U.S. sanctions waiver on Russian oil was announced separately last month. It allows through April 11 the sale, delivery and offloading of crude oil and petroleum products of Russian origin already at sea, to provide a relief to global supplies squeezed now by the Iran war.