MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for March 25th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— EIA: U.S. Imports of Venezuelan Crude Hit 7-Year High  

— PNW Sub-octane Premium Basis Spikes by 10cts on High Demand

— Exxon Mobil: Team Assessing Venezuela Investment Potential

— Analysis: California E15 Decision Looms Amid Price Strain

— EPA Grants Emergency Fuel Waiver for E15

— EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks at 4-Month Low

— DOI: $1.5T in U.S. Approved Projects Awaiting Permits

— EIA: PADD 1 Jet Fuel Stocks Hit Highest Peak in 2026

— EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Rise, Bucking National Trend

— EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall 7th Consecutive Week

— U.S. Crude Stocks Up 5th Week in Row To Nearly 2-Yr High

— EIA: U.S. Ethanol Production Edges Higher, Stocks Rise

— U.S. Rack ULSD Up 28.4cts; Gasoline Rebounds

— Analysis: $8 California Gasoline and the Mideast Crisis

NEWS:

EIA: U.S. Imports of Venezuelan Crude Hit 7-Year High

U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela hit a seven-year high for the week ended March 20, while Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Colombia recorded declining volumes during the same period, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (3/25).

Imports of Venezuelan crude rose by 125,000 bpd to 549,000 bpd in the profiled week, hitting their highest since February 2019. Venezuela’s oil shipments to the U.S. have climbed since the White House took charge of its petroleum sector after engineering the capture of the country’s former leader Nicolas Maduro in January.

Last week’s import volume from Venezuela was higher than the 195,000 bpd seen in the same week of last year.

U.S refiners also imported 3.9 million bpd of Canadian crude last week, sone 123,000 bpd higher than the prior week and little changed from the same week of 2025.

In contrast, heavy sour crude imports from Mexico plummeted by 413,000 bpd to 227,000 bpd during the week ended March 20, below the 393,000 bpd reported year-over-year, EIA data showed.

Imports of heavy grades from Colombia plunged almost three times week-over-week by declining 131,000 bpd to 88,000 bpd. It was more than two times below the volume reported for the same week of last year, when it was at 190,000 bpd.  

Despite the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, weekly imports from Iraq more than doubled by rising to 270, 000 bpd. That was also above the 203,000 bpd noted in the same period of last year.

Meanwhile, imports from Saudi Arabia dropped by 188,000 bpd to 605,000 bpd during the week ended March 20. Still, that was four times more than the 144,000 bpd recorded in the same week of 2025.

Weekly imports from Libya and Ecuador were zero, below the 86,000 bpd and 127,000 bpd reported, respectively, a year ago.

PNW Sub-octane Premium Basis Spikes by 10cts on High Demand

Pacific Northwest Sub-octane premium basis surged by 10cts on Wednesday (3/25) to a 30.5cts premium over May NYMEX RBOB futures, after a bid was heard in the market at a 30ct premium.

The move was driven by firm demand, with the basis pegged at a 20.5cts premium to May futures contract in the previous trading session on Tuesday (3/24).

This movement comes as Refining utilization in the West Coast (PADD 5) rose to 82.2% in the week ending March 20 from 79.8% the prior week, according to the most recent data from Energy Information Administration. 

Exxon Mobil: Team Assessing Venezuela Investment Potential

ExxonMobil has a team in Venezuela this week assessing the possibility of investing in the country’s oil and gas industry over the long-term, Dan Ammann, head of the company’s upstream business, said Wednesday (3/25).

“We have a team there this week on the ground,” Amman told reporters on the sidelines of S&P Global conference’s CERAWeek. “Obviously, there’s a tremendous amount of resource there; 300 million barrels of proven reserves.”

Scaling Venezuela’s current crude production of below 1 million bpd today to its heyday output of 3 million bpd would probably require “hundreds of billions of dollars in investment over a very long period of time,” said Ammann.

He noted that despite some reforms to the Venezuelan hydrocarbon industry, Exxon was still assessing whether the country had the right conditions to encourage such an investment.

The company also had other investment options, such as Brazil, which produces four times as much oil as Venezuela, Ammann said.

The Trump administration, which took charge of Venezuela’s oil after capturing its former leader Nicolas Maduro in January, has urged U.S. oil companies to invest up to $100 billion to rebuild the country’s petroleum industry.

ExxonMobil has, however, taken for a more cautious approach, tying any potential investment to stability in the Latin American country, which is still run by a leftist regime.

Analysis: California E15 Decision Looms Amid Price Strain

Soaring prices for gasoline in California, which could heighten as the Middle East conflict drags, have fundamentally shifted the economic landscape for the state’s impending decision on the E15 fuel.

What was once a slow-moving regulatory discussion now appears a priority, testing the resolve of the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

At the end of a two-day meeting on Friday (3/27), CARB is expected to decide whether to put the E15 at par with regular E10 gasoline, which contains 10% ethanol, or treat it as an alternative fuel.  

The California agency had a major regulatory path for the E15 cleared Wednesday (3/25) when the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved the 15% ethanol blend as a 2026 summer season fuel.

The greenlight came in the form of a waiver granted for the E15 from having to meet strict emission standards during the summer under the RVP – or 1-psi Reid Vapor Pressure – ruling. RVP has been key in regulating gasoline with higher ethanol from causing more smog in high temperatures.

CARB regulators must still determine if the E15 meets the state’s own summertime RVP standards, although the EPA waiver could make it easier for the state to decide.

For California Governor Gavin Newsom, the E15 has always been about making fuel more affordable in the state, where pump prices for the regular E10 are already trending above $5 gallon, reaching even $8 in some parts of Los Angeles.

“Adding larger volumes of low-cost ethanol to gasoline is a proven solution for reducing fuel prices,” Renewable Fuels Association CEO Geoff Cooper said.

Prior to the EPA’s announcement on Wednesday, ethanol’s wholesale discount to gasoline stood at around $0.84 gallon – large enough to sell the E15 at a discount of least $0.20 to the E10 after refining costs. It is not known how much the difference could narrow here on as the ethanol industry tries to cash in on higher demand for the feedstock.

Also, if CARB designates E15 as an alternative fuel, fuel retailers will need entirely separate infrastructure to store and dispense the 15% blend, side by side with the E10. The cost of new tanks and pumps would make the transition a non-starter for independent station operators, especially the smaller ones.

Some also caution that over the longer run, the economics behind the E15 might not be as much as expected.

University of California Berkeley economics professor Aaron Smith notes that ethanol contains roughly 33% less energy than petroleum. The resulting 1% to 2% drop in mileage often nets out the retail price discount.

“Even if the extra ethanol in E15 were free to produce, the cost of production would only drop by about $0.13,” Smith noted in a December study.

Still, Stanford economist Ryan Cummings warns that a prolonged Middle East crisis could drive global crude benchmark Brent towards $140 bbl, bringing regular gasoline across California to near $7 gallon.

At such pricing, the E15 debate is no longer about marginal savings, but about the survival of the state’s fuel supply chain.

EPA Grants Emergency Fuel Waiver for E15

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Wednesday (3/25) an emergency waiver to allow nationwide sales of E15, the gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, to mitigate a potential disruption to U.S. fuel supply.  

The EPA also removed all federal impediments to selling the E10, or regular gasoline blended with 10% ethanol, and waived restrictions on associated blends as well, the agency’s administrator Lee Zeldin told a press briefing during the CERAWeek conference by S&P Global.

“We are waiving federal enforcement of all state boutique fuel requirements for gasoline, allowing the production and distribution of gasoline with 9-to-15 % ethanol content at a single common RVP standard of 10 PSI across the nation,” Zeldin said.  

EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks at 4-Month Low

U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline fell to a four-month low last week while distillate stocks and jet fuel stocks also declined, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Wednesday (3/25).

Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 3 region fell on the week, declining by 1.5 million bbl to 83.7 million bbl during the week ended March 20, the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed. That was the lowest level for PADD 3 gasoline stocks since the week ended November 21, 2025, when inventories stood at 81.3 million bbl.Year-on-year, gasoline stocks in the region rose by 1.7 million bbl.

PADD 3 gasoline imports fell by 3,000 bpd to 23,000 last week and were 6,000 bpd lower compared with the same week of last year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the same region fell by 1.0 million bbl to 30.6 million bbl during the profiled week and were 2.3 million bbl higher than the volume reported in the same period of last year.

Jet fuel stocks in the Gulf Coast slid 400,000 bbl to 14.3 million bbl and were 200,000 bbl higher from a year ago, EIA data showed.

As a net exporter of distillates and jet fuel, PADD 3 does not report imports of those products.

Refining utilization on the Gulf Coast grew to 96.7% during the week ended March 20, from 94.7% the prior week.

Crude inventories in PADD 3 increased by 5.7 million bbl to 265.9 million bbl on the week and were 17 million bbl higher year-on-year. The total of oil imports for the Gulf fell by 875,000 bpd to 1.512 million bpd on the week and were 231,000 bpd lower from the same week last year.

DOI: $1.5T in U.S. Approved Projects Awaiting Permits

An estimated $1.5 trillion of approved projects in the United States cannot obtain permits, clogging the economy and reducing potential growth, said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum on Wednesday (3/25) during the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference.

The U.S. is experiencing permitting delays on mining, oil and gas projects and other industries, due to duplicated reviews and slow multi‑office handoffs. The DOI is working on compressing timelines, assigning dedicated permit teams, and integrating AI to accelerate approvals, Burgum said.

Separately, Burgum noted that Alaska has been sitting on one of the most staggering untapped natural gas reserves in the world for decades. With every barrel of oil extracted from Alaska’s North Slope over the past 50 years, vast quantities of associated natural gas have had nowhere to go, forcing operators to re-inject it back into the ground.

Due to the scale of LNG resources estimated in trillions of cubic feet and additional gas reserves held in federal lease areas like the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska -with 1.3 million acres across 87 tracts- the U.S. could supply Asian markets, Burgum said.

EIA: PADD 1 Jet Fuel Stocks Hit Highest Peak in 2026

East Coast (PADD 1) jet fuel inventories climbed for a second consecutive week to the highest level of 2026 and reached a five-month record in the week ended March 20, while gasoline stocks declined for a second straight week, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday (3/25).

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 1 increased by 1 million bbl to 10.1 million bbl in the week ending March 20 and were in line with the 10.1 million bbl recorded in the same period last year. The latest level is the highest since the week ended November 14, when stocks stood at 10.2 million bbl. Imports of the product into the region fell by 22,000 bpd to 0 bpd on a weekly basis and were below the 46,000 bpd imported a year earlier.

Motor gasoline stocks in PADD 1 fell by 1.2 million bbl to 62.2 million bbl after dropping 3.5 million bbl in the previous week and were above the 61.7 million bbl reported in the same week last year. The latest level is the lowest since the week ended January 9, when inventories stood at 59.1 million bbl. Gasoline imports into the East Coast averaged 248,000 bpd, up 9,000 bpd week-over-week, and below the 357,000 bpd imported in the comparable week of 2025.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in PADD 1 decreased by 200,000 bbl to 27.4 million bbl in the week ending March 20 and were below the 28.3 million bbl recorded in the same period a year earlier. Distillate fuel oil imports averaged 104,000 bpd last week, down 63,000 bpd from the prior week, but slightly above the 100,000 bpd imported in the same week last year.

Refinery utilization on the East Coast increased to 91.9% from 87.8% the previous week, with crude oil inputs rising by 30,000 bpd to 828,000 bpd, EIA data showed.

Crude oil inventories on the East Coast increased by 300,000 bbl to 8.7 million bbl week-over-week and were above the 8.3 million bbl reported in the same week of 2025. Crude oil imports rose by 110,000 bpd to 484,000 bpd and were above the 422,000 bpd recorded in the comparable week last year.

EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Rise, Bucking National Trend

Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline inventories increased in the week ended March 20, reversing the previous week’s decline, while distillate stocks edged lower and crude oil inventories rose, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (3/25).

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 2 rose by 700,000 bbl to 59.5 million bbl on the week, EIA data showed and were above the 58.2 million bbl recorded in the corresponding week last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 2,000 bpd, down 7,000 bpd from the prior week and below the 24,000 bpd imported in the same week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the Midwest declined by 300,000 bbl on the week to 29.3 million bbl and were 3 million bbl below the level reported in the same week of the prior year. Distillate fuel oil imports averaged 5,000 bpd, down 1,000 bpd from the prior week and below the 6,000 bpd imported in the comparable week last year.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 2 increased by 200,000 bbl to 7.5 million bbl on the week and were 500,000 bbl below the volume recorded in the same week of the prior year. During the profiled week, PADD 2 jet fuel imports remained at zero bpd, unchanged week-over-week and year-over-year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 rose by 1.3 million bbl to 111.3 million bbl during the reference week and were 4 million bbl above volumes recorded in the corresponding week of the prior year. Crude oil imports into the Midwest averaged 2.938 million bpd during the reference week, compared with 2.944 million bpd the prior week and 2.849 million bpd reported in the same week of the prior year.

Refinery utilization in the Midwest increased to 91.6% of operable capacity from 90.9% the prior week and was above the 90.9% recorded in the same week of the prior year, according to EIA data.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall 7th Consecutive Week

West Coast gasoline and jet fuel stocks tumbled last week while distillate inventories rose, Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday (3/25).

Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region fell for the seventh consecutive week, declining by 500,000 bbl to 26.9 million bbl, during the week ended March 20, the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed. Year-on-year, gasoline stocks in the region were lower by 1.7 million bbl. PADD 5 gasoline imports fell by 4,000 bpd to 169,000 bpd last week and were 10,000 bpd lower compared with the same week last year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the same region grew by 200,000 bbl to 11.7 million bbl during the week profiled and were unchanged compared to the previous year, the EIA data showed. Its imports climbed by 1,000 bpd to 34,000 bpd last week and were 33,000 bpd higher compared with the same week last year.

Jet fuel stocks on the West Coast fell by 600,000 bbl to 11 million bbl but were 300,000 bbl lower from a year ago. PADD 5 jet fuel imports fell by 21,000 bpd to 107,000 bpd last week and were 62,000 bpd higher compared with the same week year over year.

Crude oil inventories in the region dropped by 1.6 million bbl to 43.9 million bbl during the week ending March 20 and were 2.5 million bbl lower than the volume reported in the same period of last year. Crude imports in PADD 5 climbed by 158,000 bpd to 1.108 million bpd on the week and were 175,000 bpd lower compared with the same week last year.

U.S. Crude Stocks Up 5th Week in Row To Nearly 2-Yr High

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose a fifth consecutive week last week to the highest in nearly two years, while gasoline inventories declined and distillate and jet fuel inventories rose, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed Wednesday (3/25).

Crude stocks climbed by 6.9 million bbl to 456.2 million bbl during the week March 20, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed. That was the highest crude stock level for a week since June 7, 2024, when inventories stood at 459.7 million bbl.

Compared with the same week of last year, crude stocks were 22.6 million bbl higher.

Distillate fuel oil inventories rose by 3.0 million bbl to 119.9 million bbl on a weekly basis and were 5.6 million bbl higher than the same week last year.

Jet fuel stocks increased by 700,000 bbl to 44.3 million bbl and were at the same level as the previous year.

Total motor gasoline inventories extended their decline, falling by 2.6 million bbl to 241.4 million bbl last week. Compared with the same week last year, gasoline stocks were 2.3 million bbl higher.

Blending components for gasoline fell by 2.4 million bbl to 228.7 million bbl and were higher than the 224.4 million reported year-over-year. Conventional gasoline stocks reported a weekly fall of 200,000 bbl to 12.7 million bbl.

Refinery utilization rose to 92.9% last week from 91.4% of operable capacity reported the prior week, the EIA data showed.

Crude oil input into refineries averaged 16.598 million bpd during the week ended March 20, up from 16.232 million bpd reported a week ago and above the 15.750 million seen in the same week last year.

Crude oil exports averaged 3.322 million bpd in the profiled week, down 1.576 million bpd from the previous week.

During the week profiled, crude imports averaged 6.464 million bpd, a 730,000 bpd decrease from last week. Year-on-year, imports rose 269,000 bpd from the 6.195 million bpd recorded in the same week of 2025.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.678 million bpd, up 2.4% from the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand averaged 8.796 million bpd, down 0.9% from the same period last year, while distillate demand averaged 3.932 million bpd, higher by 1.2% from the same period last year.

EIA: U.S. Ethanol Production Edges Higher, Stocks Rise

VIENNA (DTN) – The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (3/25) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.116 million bpd in the week ending March 20, up 23,000 bpd week-on-week and 53,000 bpd, or 5% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.108 million bpd was 29,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.061 million bpd, up 26,000 bpd week-on-week and 51,000 bpd, or 5% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.054 million bpd was 27,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 889,000 bpd, up 13,000 bpd week-on-week and 9,000 bpd, or 1% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 882,000 bpd was 3,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were up 2,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were up 7,000 bpd, up 4,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and down 0,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 27.17 million bbl, up 763,000 bbl week-on-week and 558,000 bbl, or 2.1% higher than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 8.007 million bbl, up 2,000 bbl week-on-week and 464,000 bbl, or 6.2% higher than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 11.286 million bbl, up 294,000 bbl week-on-week and 270,000 bbl, or 2.5% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 4.949 million bbl, up 677,000 bbl week-on-week and 267,000 bbl, or 5.1% lower than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.569 million bbl, down 211,000 bbl week-on-week and 84,000 bbl, or 3.4% higher than in the same week last year.

U.S. Rack ULSD Up 28.4cts; Gasoline Rebounds

Wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel and gasoline moved higher Wednesday (3/25), rebounding from Tuesday’s sharp declines, as physical markets remained supported by recent supply disruptions even as futures prices turned lower on shifting geopolitical signals tied to the Iran war.

Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $4.1755 gallon, up 28.40cts from Tuesday’s $3.8915 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.1838 gallon, up 14.58cts from $3.0380 gallon. Premium grade gasoline also increased across all regions.

ULSD racks rose across all regions Wednesday, with the largest increases seen in PADD 5 and PADD 3. West Coast ULSD climbed 36.08cts to $5.1521 gallon, maintaining the strongest regional premium. Gulf Coast prices rose 34.94cts to $4.2411 gallon, while East Coast values increased 26.12cts to $4.3564 gallon. Midwest ULSD moved 23.70cts higher to $3.7466 gallon, while PADD 4 posted the smallest increase, up 13.10cts to $4.2916 gallon.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $4.1755 gallon, PADD 5 held the widest premium at 97.66cts above the U.S. benchmark, followed by PADD 1 at 18.09cts above and PADD 4 at 11.61cts above. PADD 3 traded modestly above the national average, while PADD 2 remained the deepest discount at 42.89cts below the benchmark.

On conventional unleaded gasoline racks, all regions moved higher Wednesday. PADD 3 recorded the largest increase, rising 18.53cts to $2.9089 gallon. PADD 1 increased 14.68cts to $2.9059 gallon, while PADD 5 climbed 13.35cts to $3.8904 gallon. PADD 2 rose 12.52cts to $2.7486 gallon, maintaining the deepest discount nationally, while PADD 4 posted the smallest increase, up 4.59cts to $3.2518 gallon.

Compared with the national gasoline average of $3.1838 gallon, PADD 5 remained the only region trading at a premium, at 70.66cts above the benchmark. All other regions held discounts, led by PADD 2 at 43.52cts below the national average, followed by PADD 1 at 27.79cts and PADD 3 at 27.49cts. PADD 4 remained slightly above the benchmark.

Premium gasoline rack prices increased across all regions, broadly in line with conventional gasoline. PADD 3 posted the largest increase, up 18.31cts to $3.4364 gallon, followed closely by PADD 1, up 18.22cts to $3.5359 gallon. West Coast premiums remained elevated at $4.2842 gallon.

Futures prices moved sharply lower Wednesday morning. Front-month May NYMEX ULSD futures fell 28.84cts to $3.7249 gallon, while May RBOB gasoline futures declined 15.80cts to $2.9366 gallon. WTI crude for May delivery dropped $3.77 to $88.54 bbl.

The pullback in futures followed reports that the United States proposed a 15-point plan aimed at ending the conflict with Iran, introducing the possibility of de-escalation. At the same time, continued exchanges between Israel and Iran, along with additional U.S. troop movements, kept uncertainty elevated, with Iranian leadership denying any active negotiations.

That push and pull between de-escalation headlines and ongoing disruptions has created a disconnect between futures and physical markets. Futures have reacted quickly to shifting expectations around a potential resolution, while rack prices continue to reflect tighter near-term supply conditions after weeks of disrupted Middle Eastern crude flows.

Analysis: $8 California Gasoline and the Mideast Crisis

Californian gasoline prices surged for a ninth straight week this week, with $8 gallon at some Los Angeles stations underscoring the Middle East conflict’s impact on a state 13,000 miles away.

While L.A. prices are not representative of the entire state, Californian fuel remains the priciest across the U.S.

The statewide average stood near $5.40 gallon as of March 23, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the American Automobile Association. Across the 50 U.S. states, the average hovered closer to $3.60 gallon, reflecting the premium Californian drivers paid at the pump.

Retail prices aside, the wholesale market for gasoline is tightening as well, EIA data shows. Refinery utilization in the West Coast region, known as PADD 5, fell to 79.8% in the week ending March 13, down from 83.8% the prior week. Similarly, gasoline inventories declined by 900,000 bbl to 27.4 million bbl, amid ongoing supply constraints.

In the spot market, Los Angeles CARBOB’s regular basis increased to a 45cts premium to May NYMEX RBOB futures, with ULSD and Jet fuel premiums following suit on firm demand.

The heightened prices and market activity are a result of the ongoing Middle East conflict, where Iran ‘s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed roughly 20 million bpd of global petroleum supply. California is particularly impacted, accounting for approximately half of the 600,000 bpd of crude that the U.S. imports from the Persian Gulf.

“California operates with very little excess refining capacity, so when a refinery closes or production declines, prices can rise quickly because there is limited ability to replace that supply,” said Paul Ronney, who chairs the department of mechanical engineering at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Perfect Storm

Recent refinery shutdowns involving the 145,000 bpd Valero Benicia refinery and 139,000 bpd Phillips 66 Wilmington refinery had outed 17% of Californian refining capacity. The state relies heavily on instate production and marine imports, so whenever refinery output declines or inventories fall, prices can move sharply higher, Ronney observed.

Mark Jacobsen, economics professor at the University of California San Diego, offered a second perspective on what was possible for gasoline prices in the near future.

“The futures market for oil may contain the best prediction about what will happen, though this market has historically not been all that accurate,” said Jacobsen. “Even so, it is a better predictor than any individual’s guesses about the future of oil and geopolitical events.”

In the most alleviating of circumstances, Canada’s crude imports, priced at above $100 bbl due to the Iran war, could be near $74 bbl a year from now, Jacobsen said. That would still be about $10 a barrel higher than pre-war levels.

Since each $1 increase in crude typically translates to roughly 2.5cts gallon more at the pump, that implies gasoline could remain about 25cts gallon above levels seen before the Middle East conflict.

Analysts in general believe California’s fuel market will remain elevated and highly volatile as it faces multiple headwinds at once. Reduced refining capacity, declining inventories and limited alternatives could all work together to create a perfect storm for the state’s drivers.