MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for March 4th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

—  NYH Jet Fuel Basis Hits  2-Year High on Tight Stocks

—  Dallas Fed: U.S. EV Industry in Reset as Demand Stalls

—  LA Jet Fuel Basis Jumps to 65cts, Extends Rally  

—  AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 14.7% for Week Ended Feb. 28

—  EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline, Distillate Stocks Down; Jet Fuel Up

—  Analysis: Hormuz Closure’s Ripple Effects on Production

—  EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Remain Near 2-Year High

—  EIA: PADD 1 Sees Weekly Gasoline, Distillates Build

—  EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Hit Four-Week Decline

—  EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Dips, Inventories Rise

—  EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Rise 50.8% Y-o-Y

—  U.S. Rack ULSD Prices Climb 25.5cts for Third Straight Day

NEWS:

NYH Jet Fuel Basis Hits  2-Year High on Tight Stocks

The basis for jet fuel moved on the Buckeye Pipeline in the New York Harbor spot market reached a two-year high on Wednesday (3/4) amid active trading and low inventory levels.

New York Harbor jet fuel basis was heard traded at a 29 premium over the ULDS futures contract for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), a 20.75cts increase from the previous trading session. That was the highest basis since November 21, 2023 when it was assessed at an 18cts premium over the NYMEX ULDS futures contract, according to DTN data.

The jet fuel basis hike in the New York Harbor market was supported by firm demand driven by shrinking jet fuel inventories reported in the East Coast last week amid extreme severe winter conditions.

The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that PADD 1 East Coast jet fuel inventories declined by 800,000 bbl to 8.7 million bbl during the week ended February 27, standing below the 9 million bbl recorded in the same week last year.

PADD 1 jet fuel production during the profiled week rose to 87,000 bpd compared to 80,000 bpd the prior week.

Dallas Fed: U.S. EV Industry in Reset as Demand Stalls

U.S. automakers are retracting ambitious electrification plans as stagnant consumer demand fails to support a $50 billion manufacturing expansion by battery makers, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in a sector review this week.

“Current sales of EVs are insufficient to justify the investments made in gigafactories, and the outlook does not suggest significant improvement anytime soon,” the Fed stated in the report released Tuesday (3/3).

Many third-party forecasters have markedly cut their demand projections for EVs in the U.S., the central bank noted. In acknowledging their difficulties, automakers have both reframed their EV sales goals and written off billions of dollars of capital investments tied to EVs and batteries.

The industry recalibration follows the elimination of federal consumer subsidies for EVs by the Trump administration in September to shield demand for gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. Consequently, EV sales plunged from a peak of 163,0000 in September to around 63,000 by November, a chart in the Fed report showed.

Despite the automotive slump, the report highlights that battery demand for the power grid and data centers remains a robust growth area through 2026. These utility-scale projects represent a critical pivot for manufacturers retooling for the energy storage market.

LA Jet Fuel Basis Jumps to 65cts, Extends Rally

Basis for prompt Los Angeles jet fuel jumped by 22.5cts on Wednesday (3/4) to a 65ct premium above April NYMEX ULSD futures, following a rally in the futures market that lifted ULSD.

The latest move extends a sharp upward trend that began March 3, when LA jet fuel basis surged by 26.5cts to a 42.5cts premium over the ULSD contract.

Domestic supply tightness also supported spot market prices as refining utilization in the West Coast region decreased to 79.6% in the week ending February 27, down from 81.1% the previous week.

Lower refining rates in PADD 5 reflect the recent closure of Phillips 139,000 bpd Los Angeles, California, refinery and the upcoming shutdown of Valero’s 145,000 bpd, Benicia California, refinery, with operations set to cease in late April.

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 14.7% for Week Ended Feb. 28

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports that petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 11,932 during the week ended February 28, up by 14.7% from the same week a year ago.

Year-to-date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 88,073, up 7.1% from the corresponding period of the prior year, an AAR report published on Wednesday (3/4) showed.

Weekly traffic for the profiled week totaled 516,729, up 1.6% from the same week a year ago.

Total carloads for the week ended February 28 reached 238,131, higher by 6.9% from the same week of last year.

Weekly intermodal volume was 278,598 containers and trailers, down 2.5% from the corresponding week of the prior year.

Year-to-date, U.S. railroads reported carloads at 1,762,504, up 5.5% on the year.

Cumulative intermodal units were 2,191,101, down 1.0% from a year ago.

Total rail traffic for the first seven weeks of the year was 3,953,605 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.8% on the year.

EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline, Distillate Stocks Down; Jet Fuel Up

U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline and distillate stocks declined last week while jet fuel inventories rose, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday (3/4).

Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 3 region fell by 2.4 million bbl to 87.2 million bbl during the week ended February 27, after being unchanged the prior week, the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed. Year-on-year, gasoline stocks in the region were higher by 5.1 million bbl.

PADD 3 gasoline imports rose by 1,000 bpd to 33,000 bpd last week and were 18,000 bpd higher compared with the same week of last year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the same region declined by 700,000 bbl to 48 million bbl during the week profiled and were 8.3 million higher than the volume reported in same period of last year, EIA data showed. 

Jet fuel stocks in the Gulf Coast climbed by 700,00 bbl to 13.6 million but were 1.9 million bbl lower from a year ago.

As a net exporter of distillates and jet fuel, PADD 3 does not report imports of those products. 

Refining utilization in the Gulf Coast slid to 89.5% from 91.1% the prior week, according to EIA data.

Crude imports (PADD 3)  rose by 210,000 bpd to 1.328 million bpd on the week and were 578,000 bpd – or 77% – higher year-on-year, due in part to increasing imports of Venezuelan crude into the region.

Analysis: Hormuz Closure’s Ripple Effects on Production

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, the world has in one fell swoop lost a fifth of petroleum liquid supply. The first ripple effects on oil and gas production can already be felt. U.S. President Trump has vowed to reopen the vital passageway, but the consequences for the oil complex could outlive the closure itself.

Crude oil storage tanks in the Middle East are quickly filling up as the region’s key export route remained close for shipping. As a result, producers have begun shutting down operations. Iraq’s crude output has already halved three days into the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and onshore storage in Saudi Arabia is quickly filling up. The latter is one of the few producers who can divert some production to ports not affected by the shipping disruption.

How soon tankers can freely transit the strait will also dictate how quickly oil output can return. Some fields can restart production within a day, but others will take more time. Typically, the longer a well is idle, the harder it is to restart operations. The delay for natural gas will be considerably longer. LNG exports may need up to a month to reach pre-war capacity, as the restart of gas liquification from a total shutdown can take up to two weeks.

Fighting near oil fields and strikes on production infrastructure could add weeks to the restart timeline.

Production in the Kurdish part of Iraq – the only region in the country which in the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has an alternative route for oil exports, has been shut down as a precautionary measure on signs Iran is considering military action in the region which harbors countless dissidents from Tehran and thousands of Iranian-Kurdish armed fighters. Damages to oil infrastructure can considerably extend production restarts, but the Iraqi example proves that credible threats to infrastructure alone are sufficient to hamper output.

While domestic refiners’ dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil has waned over the decades, the U.S. still imports more than 500,000 bpd of crude from the region. Heavy-sour crude from Canada and Venezuela can step in to replace grades like Arab Heavy, and lighter grades are not exactly in short supply given record high domestic production and new projects in Guyana and the North Sea.

EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Remain Near 2-Year High

Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline inventories held steady last week near a two-year high during the week ended February 27, while distillate stocks edged higher and crude oil balances increased, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday.

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 2 were unchanged on the week at 61.1 million bbl, keeping stocks near their highest level since the week ended February 02, 2024, when inventories reached 61.6 million bbl, EIA data showed. Compared with the corresponding week last year, gasoline inventories were 700,000 bbl above the 60.4 million bbl recorded during the same period. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 10,000 bpd, up from 2,000 bpd the previous week but below 21,000 bpd recorded in the corresponding week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the Midwest increased by 100,000 bbl to 28.9 million bbl on the week and were 5.5 million bbl below the 34.4 million bbl reported in the same week of the prior year. Distillate fuel oil imports averaged 10,000 bpd, up from 4,000 bpd the previous week and above 9,000 bpd reported in the same week of the prior year.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 2 declined by 100,000 bbl to 7.8 million bbl on the week. Stocks were 100,000 bbl below volumes recorded in the same week of the prior year. During the profiled week, PADD 2 jet fuel imports were zero, week-over-week and year-over-year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 increased by 1.1 million bbl to 108.3 million bbl during the profiled week and were 1.4 million bbl below volumes recorded in the corresponding week of the prior year. Crude oil imports into the Midwest averaged 3.190 million bpd during the reference week, up from 3.049 million bpd the prior week and above 3.062 million bpd reported in the same week of the prior year.

Refinery utilization in the Midwest rose to 92.7% of operable capacity from 86.1% the prior week and was above the 91.5% recorded in the same week of the prior year, according to EIA data.

EIA: PADD 1 Sees Weekly Gasoline, Distillates Build

East Coast (PADD 1) distillates and gasoline inventories rose in the week ended February 27, reversing two consecutive weeks of declines, while jet fuel stocks recorded a weekly draw, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday (3/4).

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the region increased by 1.9 million bbl to 27.5 million bbl in the week ending February 27 and were below the 29.4 million bbl recorded in the same week last year. Distillate imports averaged 10,000 bpd last week, which is 6,000 bpd higher than the previous week and above the 9,000 bpd seen in the same week last year.

Motor gasoline stocks in PADD 1 rose by 1.6 million bbl to 66.7 million bbl in the week profiled, marking the first increase in the last three weeks, according to EIA data. Inventories were above the 66.3 million bbl reported in the same week in 2025. Gasoline imports on the East Coast edged higher by 800,000 bbl to 373,000 bpd but were below the 447,000 bpd imported in the same week last year.

Higher gasoline and distillate inventories reflected weaker demand driven by the severe weather that affected the East Coast during the reference week.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 1 dropped by 800,000 bbl to 8.7 million bbl in the week ending February 27 and were below the 9 million bbl recorded in the same week last year. 

Refinery utilization in the profiled week climbed to 92% from 87.9% the prior week, the EIA data showed.

Crude oil inventories on the East Coast fell by 800,000 bbl to 9.3 million bbl in the respective week and were above 8.2 million bbl recorded on a yearly basis. Crude oil imports fell by 70,000 barrels to 764,000 bpd but were higher than the 358,000 bpd recorded in the same week last year.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Hit Four-Week Decline

West Coast gasoline stocks extended a four-week decline in the week ending February 27, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (3/4).

Gasoline inventories in PADD 5 fell by 1.1 million bbl to 28.7 million bbl in the week ending February 27, below the 28.8 million bbl reported in the same week last year. This was the lowest level since the week ended December 05, 2025, when stocks were reported at 28.4 million bbl. Gasoline imports dropped to 22,000 bpd from 168,000 bpd the previous week, compared to120,000 bpd reported in the corresponding week of 2025.

Distillate stocks in PADD 5 slipped by 700,000 bbl to 11.7 million bbl in the week ending February 27, well above the 11.4 million bbl level the same week last year. Distillate imports declined to 1,000 bpd from 6,000 bpd the week prior, lower than the 8,000 bpd reported last year.

Jet fuel inventories in the region slipped by 100,000 bbl to 11.1 million bbl in the reference week, below the 12.1 million bbl reported in the previous year. Jet fuel imports edged lower to 104,000 bpd from 105,000 bpd the previous week, below the 116,000 bpd reported in the year prior.

Crude oil inventories in the USWC dropped by 1 million bbl to 47.0 million bbl in the respective week, but above 46.5 million bbl recorded in the same week last year. Crude imports into the region declined to 703,000 bpd from 774,000 bpd the previous week, below 1.225 million bpd reported year-over-year.

West Coast refinery utilization fell to 79.6% in the week ending February 27, down from 81.1% the previous week.

EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Dips, Inventories Rise

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (3/4) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.095 million bpd in the week ending February 27, down 18,000 bpd week-on-week but 33,000 bpd, or 3.1% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.109 million bpd was 24,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.

Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.044 million bpd, down 16,000 bpd week-on-week and 36,000 bpd, or 3.6% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.054 million bpd was 22,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.

Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 864,000 bpd, down 2,000 bpd week-on-week and 13,000 bpd, or 1.5% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 859,000 bpd was 1,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.

Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 13,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were up 3,000 bpd, down 2,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and up 9,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 26.337 million bbl, up 691,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.039 million bbl, or 3.8% lower than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.576 million bbl, up 256,000 bbl week-on-week and 623,000 bbl, or 7.6% lower than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 10.825 million bbl, up 384,000 bbl week-on-week and 712,000 bbl, or 6.2% lower than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 4.889 million bbl, up 83,000 bbl week-on-week and 270,000 bbl, or 5.8% higher than in the same week last year.

West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.669 million bbl, down 21,000 bbl week-on-week and 93,000 bbl, or 3.6% higher than in the same week last year.

EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Rise 50.8% Y-o-Y

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (3/4) total domestic propane/propylene stocks of 73.351 million bbl in the week ending February 27, up 819,000 bbl week-on-week and 24.697 million bbl, or 50.8% higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.609 million bpd, down 353,000 bpd week-on-week and 639,000 bpd, or 28.4%, lower than in the same week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.268 million bpd, down 75,000 bpd week-on-week and 210,000 bpd, or 19.8% higher than in the same week last year.

EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.816 million bpd, down 46,000 bpd week-on-week and 126,000 bpd, or 4.7% higher than in the same week last year.

East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 3.53 million bbl, up 238,000 bbl week-on-week and 148,000 bbl, or 4.4% higher than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 13.806 million bbl, down 109,000 bbl week-on-week and 3.392 million bbl, or 32.6% higher than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 52.6 million bbl, up 815,000 bbl week-on-week and 20.715 million bbl, or 65% higher than in the same week last year.

Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the week at 3.415 million bbl, down 125,000 bbl week-on-week and 441,000 bbl, or 14.8% higher than in the same week last year.

U.S. Rack ULSD Prices Climb 25.5cts for Third Straight Day

Wholesale rack prices for gasoline and diesel across the United States opened higher Wednesday, extending the upward trend seen over the past three sessions as supply concerns tied to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to ripple through refined products markets.

Nationwide ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) rack prices were at $3.2597 gallon, up 25.55cts from Tuesday’s $3.0042 gallon, according to DTN data.

Meanwhile, conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices were heard at an average of $2.5732 gallon, an increase of 6.82cts compared to Tuesday’s national average of $2.5050 gallon.

On gasoline racks, PADD 5 posted the largest increase, rising 12.48cts to $3.0728 gallon, followed by PADD 4, up 9.65cts to $2.2341 gallon. PADD 1 climbed 7.85cts to $2.2031 gallon, while PADD 3 increased 7.30cts to $2.1646 gallon and PADD 2 rose 6.43cts to $2.0950 gallon, the same data showed.

Compared to the national average of $2.5732 gallon, all regions traded at a discount except for PADD 5, which stood at a 49.96cts premium to the U.S. average. The widest discount was seen in PADD 2, at 47.82cts below the national benchmark, followed by PADD 3 at a 40.86cts discount, PADD 1 at 37.01cts below, and PADD 4 at 33.91cts below.

ULSD racks also moved higher across all five PADDs, with the sharpest increase seen in PADD 3, where ULSD rose 27.86cts to $3.1678 gallon, followed by PADD 2, up 27.30cts to $3.1774 gallon. PADD 5 climbed 26.47cts to $3.7227 gallon, while PADD 1 and PADD 4 rose 26.32cts and 18.37cts, respectively.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $3.2597 gallon, PADD 5 held the strongest premium at 46.30cts above the U.S. average, while PADD 1 traded at an 8.33cts premium. PADDs 2, 3 and 4 were at 8.23cts, 9.19cts and 31.15cts below the national average, in that order.

The front-month NYMEX ULSD futures contract for April delivery declined by $0.0291 to $3.1578 gallon, while the April NYMEX RBOB contract fell by $0.0275 to $2.4849 gallon, as futures markets edged lower during early Wednesday trading.