MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for February 20th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— LA and SF CARBOB Regular Basis Sinks Over 20cts

— CFTC: Speculators Boost Net Longs in NYMEX WTI

— Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Up by 2 on Week

— Analysis: EIA Cites 1st 2026 Gasoline Draw as Demand Perks

— CVR Energy Targets 20,000 bpd WCS at Coffeyville Refinery

— Analysis: Gloomy Oil Outlooks for Producers, not Refiners

— CEC: California Gasoline Stocks Fall 487,000 Bbl on Week

— CEC: California Diesel Stocks Fall 271,000 Bbl on Week

— BEA: US Q4 GDP Up 1.4% as Federal Shutdown Slows Growth

—

NEWS:

LA and SF CARBOB Regular Basis Sinks Over 20cts

Basis for reformulated gasoline California Air Resources Board fuel standards tanks Friday in both Los Angeles and San Francisco gasoline from where it was last seen trading on the day.
February Los Angeles CARBOB regular basis dropped by 23cts to a 26cts premium to March NYMEX RBOB futures after a trade was reported at that level. San Francisco CARBOB regular basis dropped in tandem by 25cts to a 40cts premium.

The sharp declines in gasoline differentials in Los Angeles and San Francisco come with ongoing power failures and flaring events at PBF Energy’s 155,000 bpd Torrance refinery.

CFTC: Speculators Boost Net Longs in NYMEX WTI

Speculators added to bullish bet in NYMEX crude oil while paring them on gasoline during the week ended February 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed Friday (2/20).  In distillates and natural gas, the bearish position rose significantly.

In NYMEX WTI crude futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 903 contracts to 321,645, the CFTC said in its weekly Commitment of Traders report. Short positions tumbled by a wider margin of 22,626 contracts to 180,302.

The difference between the two grew noncommercial net longs by 23,529 contracts to 141,343, boosting the bullish position in WTI.

WTI’s open interest surged by 16,955 to 2,087,493 underscoring the boost in net longs.

In NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures, noncommercial long positions fell by 1,834 contracts to 117,261, while short positions slipped by a smaller 620 contracts to 28,519. As a result, the noncommercial net long position slipped by only 1,214 contracts to 88,742, with the drop limited by some short-covering.

Open interest in gasoline, meanwhile, rose by 1,616 contracts to 464,672.

In NYMEX ULSD futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 383 contracts to 63,052 while short positions jumped by 4,433 contracts to 47,650. The changes slashed the noncommercial net long position in ULSD by 4,050 contracts to 15,402.

Open interest in ULSD surged by 17,341 contracts to 377,488 during the reporting week, reflecting the intense build in shorts.

In NYMEX natural gas futures, noncommercial long positions dropped by 2,395 contracts to 205,853, but short positions rose by a wider 11,552 contracts to 391,665. The moves deepened the noncommercial net short position in natural gas by 13,947 contracts to 185,812. Open interest tumbled by 9,852 contracts to 1,613,556, reflecting a pullback in overall market participation.

Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Up by 2 on Week

North American energy drilling activity rose by two rigs this week, after the prior week’s six-rig drop, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly rig count report released Friday (2/20).

The report showed the regional rig count at 775 in the current week, versus 773 the week prior. Year-over-year, rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were down 61 from the 836 actively deployed in the same week of 2025.

The weekly change was driven entirely by Canada, where the rig count rose to 224 from a prior 222.  The two rigs gained by Canada were both in gas drilling.

The U.S. rig count was unchanged at 551. Land-based U.S. rigs fell by one to 53 while offshore rigs rose by one to 18. Inland-water rigs were flat at three.

By trajectory, horizontal rigs in the U.S. rose by two to 483 while directional rigs fell by two to 55. Vertical rigs were unchanged at 13. Year-over-year, the U.S. rig count was lower by 41 from the 592 actively deployed a year ago.

Analysis: EIA Cites 1st 2026 Gasoline Draw as Demand Perks

U.S. gasoline inventories dropped last week for the first time in 14 weeks as driving activity appeared to pick up with a moderation in icy temperatures experienced since January, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data published Thursday (2/19) showed.

Above-average temperatures across the U.S. Northeast and Midwest have replaced the sub-freezing conditions that came in the wake of last month’s Winter Storm Fern, weather readings showed. Warmer conditions typically lead to more driving and fuel usage.

The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended February 13 showed that high refining activity and flat demand led to a longer and steeper stock building season than usual. Now that driving demand is picking up and some refiners are undergoing maintenance, gasoline inventories have likely peaked.

At 255.8 million bbl, nationwide gasoline inventories at the end of last week were still 3.2% above year-ago levels and 3.3% higher than the seasonal five-year average. Throughout January, gasoline stocks grew much faster than in years past, a byproduct of refiners maximizing operations and delaying maintenance to take advantage from unusually high refining margins, particularly for middle distillates. Despite shrinking capacity, crude oil inputs clocked in at a five-year high.

Despite increased driving activity and lower fuel prices, year-on-year demand for gasoline rose just marginally, the EIA data showed. On a cumulative daily average, finished motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, was up a mere 0.3% year-on-year in the week ending February 13.

While still unusually busy for this time of year, refiners have started to cut back operations in late January. Net inputs of crude oil hovered around 16 million bpd for the last three weeks – up more than 4% year-on-year, but still a good 670,000 bpd below the average pace observed in the first four weeks of the year.

The 450,000-bpd week-on-week jump in gasoline supplied accounted for the entirety of last week’s 3.2 million bbl draw. Demand is set to rise over the next few months, and refining activity may have yet to trough despite an unusually brief and light maintenance month.

More maintenance is scheduled for April, by which time gasoline demand is typically 300,000 to 500,000 bpd higher. While gasoline inventories have likely peaked, they are set to remain above historical averages for the time being.

CVR Energy Targets 20,000 bpd WCS at Coffeyville Refinery

CVR Energy is ramping up Western Canadian Select (WCS) processing at its 132,000 bpd Coffeyville refinery in Kansas, the company said in a conference call on its fourth quarter earnings.

“We have started ramping up our WCS processing at Coffeyville and believe we may be able to get throughput up to approximately 20,000 bpd,” CEO Mark Pytosh said on the call Thursday (2/19).

That will compare with just 711 bpd of Canadian crude processed at Coffeyville during the fourth quarter, according to company throughput data. 

Coffeyville is primarily a domestic light-to-medium crude refinery, historically relying on locally sourced and other domestic crude barrels 

The refinery produces mainly gasoline and distillates. In the fourth quarter, Coffeyville produced 73,250 bpd of gasoline and 61,132 bpd of distillate, while crude utilization averaged 96.5% 

If WCS runs approach 20,000 bpd, that would represent roughly 15% of total capacity a meaningful shift in crude mix toward heavier, discounted feedstock.

WCS averaged a $12.06 bbl discount to WTI during the fourth quarter, supporting the economics of heavier crude runs.  

Sugarland, Texas-based CVR reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $110 million as accelerated depreciation from its Wynnewood refinery reversion and fertilizer plant downtime outweighed a 97% petroleum throughput utilization rate.

Analysis: Gloomy Oil Outlooks for Producers, not Refiners

Growing supply risks have propelled oil prices to six-month highs this year, breaking the downward trend seen throughout the second half of 2025.

Market sentiment has turned bullish amid fears of a potential war between the U.S. and Iran. But without an exchange of fire or similar aggression, attention may return to bearish market fundamentals which point to oil oversupply and growing global inventories.

According to major forecasting agencies, softening input prices for refiners may, bar major supply outages, be all but guaranteed.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that oil stockpiles grew by an average 1.3 million bpd last year, the most since 2020, when the pandemic then severely slashed oil demand. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report published last week, the agency once again cut demand growth expectations for 2026, from 930,000 bpd in its January forecast to 850,000 bpd.

A similarly-sized adjustment to supply growth expectations led the IEA to forecast an average oil surplus of 3.7 million bpd this year, unchanged from last month. The forecasted oil-overhang, which is 500,000 bpd larger than Iran’s entire crude oil output, could be even larger were prices to rise – as higher returns encourage even more drilling.

The IEA’s demand growth forecast differs widely from that of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Vienna-based OPEC expects global demand to grow by 1.38 million bpd in 2026.

Supply growth expectations by the Paris-based IEA dwarf OPEC’s bullish demand forecast by more than 1 million bpd. The IEA’s projections are split equally between OPEC and non-OPEC countries and assumes those under OPEC will adhere to their allocated quotas.

The Washington-based U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), meanwhile, expects demand growth at 1.2 million bpd this year, versus a global supply expansion of 1.5 million bpd. The EIA forecast is contained in its February Short-Term Energy Outlook. The data implies that inventories will grow at an even faster pace this year, at a rate of 3 million bpd, compared to 2.7 million bpd in 2025.

Elevated Margins to Continue

Geopolitical and supply risks aside, crude prices are expected to be pressured by global production expansions.

While fuel prices are likely to soften in tandem, they may do so at a much slower pace. Global refinery additions are slowing down, and major refining hubs such as the U.S. and Europe are set to continue losing refining capacity. Fuel inventories may swell on a global scale but stay relatively low in data-transparent markets like the U.S. and Europe. This combination of factors is likely to keep refining margins elevated.

The EIA’s latest forecast supports this view. The agency expects 16% to 18% lower average crude spot prices than in 2025, compared with a drop in wholesale gasoline and diesel prices of 7% and 11%, respectively. This implies even higher refining cracks than in the second half of last year, a trend that may well continue into 2027

CEC: California Gasoline Stocks Fall 487,000 Bbl on Week

California Energy Commission data show statewide gasoline inventories declined in the week ending February 13, as the agency now reports only statewide totals in its Weekly Fuels Report released on Friday (2/20).
Statewide gasoline stocks, including CARB reformulated, non-California, and blending components, slipped by 487,000 bbl to 10.777 million bbl, but remained 2% higher than last year.
Statewide gasoline production climbed by 149,000 bbl to 5.01 million bbl, though production remained 7% below last year’s levels.
The California Energy Commission is currently publishing only statewide gasoline inventory and production data and is no longer providing regional Northern and Southern California breakdowns.

CEC: California Diesel Stocks Fall 271,000 Bbl on Week

California Energy Commission data show statewide diesel inventories declined in the week ending February 13, as the agency continues to report only statewide figures in its Weekly Fuels Report released Friday (2/20).
Statewide CARB diesel and other diesel fuel stocks fell by 271,000 bbl to 2.741 million bbl, with inventories remained 11% below last year.
Statewide diesel production declined by 130,000 bbl to 1.507 million bbl, but production remained 1% lower than last year.
The California Energy Commission is currently publishing only statewide diesel inventory and production data and is no longer providing regional breakdowns.

BEA: US Q4 GDP Up 1.4% as Federal Shutdown Slows Growth

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 as a federal government shutdown slowed growth, advance data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Friday (2/20).

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figure marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter. The record-long 43-day government shutdown from the start of October to mid-November was responsible for a third of the 3-percentage point drag between the two quarters, the BEA’s advanced Q4 GDP report showed.

Despite the slowdown, the report highlighted continued expansion in consumer spending and business investment, though these gains were offset by lower government spending and a drop in exports.

Consumer spending on services, particularly healthcare and international travel, was the primary driver of growth. Goods-producing sectors, meanwhile, saw a slight decline in the final three months of last year.

The BEA estimated that real GDP increased 2.2% for the full year 2025, down from the 2.8% annual growth recorded during the previous year.

Inflation indicators were mixed. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, however, moderated to 2.7% from 2.9% in Q3.

Market participants remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, as policymakers weigh the fourth-quarter slowdown against sticky inflation and ongoing trade impacts from the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

Short-term U.S. interest-rate futures were little changed after the release of the latest GDP report as traders stuck to bets of a rate cut in June.