MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for February 11th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— BTS: Dec. Freight Shipments Dips 0.6% On Month

— AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 10.2% for Week to Feb. 7

— PNW Sub-Octane Regular Basis Spikes 10cts on Firm Demand

— OPEC Sees USGC Refining Margins Under Pressure Near Term

— EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Hit 2-Year High

— EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Rebound After 3-Week Drop

— EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Record 5th Straight Weekly Draw

— EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Reach 4-Year High Last Week

— EIA: US Crude Stocks Jump 8.5M Bbl; Distillates Slide

— EIA: Brent Seen Down Through 2027 as Supply Beats Demand

— EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Increase 31.3% on Year

— EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Climbs 2.3% Y-o-Y, Stocks Up

— OPEC: 2026 Demand Growth Seen Staying at 1.4M Bpd

— BLS: US Added 130K Jobs in Jan; Jobless Rate at 4.3%

NEWS:

BTS: Dec. Freight Shipments Dips 0.6% On Month

The Freight Transportation Services Index (FSI), based on for-hire transportation industry volumes, fell 0.6% in December to 137.8, the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics said Wednesday (2/11).

The decline followed a revised 1.3% increase in November and marked the first monthly drop after one month of growth, according to BTS records.

The December decrease reflected lower volumes in air freight, rail carloads, and pipelines, while trucking, rail intermodal, and water vessel shipments showed increases for the month.

Other economic indicators were mixed, as the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index fell 0.3% while the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production Index rose by 0.4%.

The Passenger Transportation Services Index fell 0.1% month-over-month and 0.2% year-over-year in December, following a 0.6% monthly decline and 1.6% yearly advance in the prior month.

The Combined Freight and Passenger Index decreased 0.4% from November but rose 0.2% year-over-year, while BTS estimated air freight and passenger data one month ahead of reporting.

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 10.2% for Week to Feb. 7

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports that petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,950 during the week ended February 7, up 10.2% from the same week a year ago.

Year-to-date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 54,171, up 4.5% from the corresponding period of the prior year, an AAR report published on Wednesday (2/4) showed.

Weekly traffic for the profiled week totaled 486,854, down 3.2% from the same week a year ago.

Total carloads for the week to February 7 reached 204,408, lower by 4.8% from the same week of last year.

Weekly intermodal volume was 278,446 containers and trailers, down 2% from the corresponding week of the prior year.

Year-to-date, U.S. railroads reported carloads at 1,071,966, up 2.5% on the year.

Cumulative intermodal units were 1,346,799, down 3.2% from a year ago.

Total rail traffic for the first five weeks of the year was 2,418,765 carloads and intermodal units, off by 0.7% on the year.

PNW Sub-Octane Regular Basis Spikes 10cts on Firm Demand

Basis for prompt Pacific Northwest sub-octane regular surged by 10.5cts on Wednesday (2/11) to a 25.5cts premium over March NYMEX RBOB futures, on the back of firm demand.

Early Wednesday, bids for PNW sub-octane regular were heard talked at a 25cts premium to the same benchmark, showing an increase in buying interest across the region caused by supply tightness.

The basis had been pegged at a 15.5cts premium to March NYMEX RBOB futures contract in the previous trading session according to DTN.

Refining utilization in the West Coast (PADD 5) dropped to 82.4% in the week ending February 6 from 83.2% the prior week, according to most recent data from Energy Information Administration.

OPEC Sees USGC Refining Margins Under Pressure Near Term

U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are expected to face continued pressure on margins in the near term, although the upcoming spring maintenance season could provide some relief, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its February monthly report released Wednesday (2/11).

The USGC gasoline crack spread against WTI increased 72cts month-on-month to reach an average of $24.42 bbl in January, while remaining $4.00 higher than the same period of last year.

Severe weather-related operational disruptions likely contributed to the decline in refinery output, partially offsetting demand-side weakness in U.S. gasoline markets, OPEC stated.

“Going forward, in line with seasonal trends, the gasoline market will remain under pressure; however, the upcoming spring maintenance season could limit the downside,” OPEC said in its report.

While heavy crude imports into the U.S. were expected to grow in 2026, actual Venezuelan output — a key source of heavy crude required by Gulf Coast refiners — dropped by 87,000 bpd month-on-month to average 830,000 bpd in January, according to secondary sources monitored by OPEC.

This supply shift contributed to a “lengthening balance” in the residual fuel market, where the USGC high sulfur fuel oil crack spread against WTI dropped by $2.06 bbl in January.

Despite the production drop in Venezuela, OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million bpd. Combined crude oil production by the Declaration of Cooperation participants — the group of 12 OPEC members and 10 allied producers known as OPEC+ — fell by 439,000 bpd to 42.45 million bpd in January.

The report also maintained the global demand growth forecast for 2027 at 1.3 million bpd.

EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Hit 2-Year High

Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline inventories climbed to their highest level in two years during the week ended February 6, while distillate stocks declined and crude oil balances increased, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (2/11).

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 2 increased by 1.1 million bbl to 60.1 million bbl during the reference week, lifting stocks to their highest level since the week ended February 2, 2024, when inventories reached 61.6 million bbl, EIA data showed. Compared with the corresponding week last year, gasoline inventories were up 3.3 million bbl from 56.8 million bbl.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the Midwest fell by 1.5 million bbl to 29.3 million bbl on the week and were 4.7 million bbl below the 34 million bbl reported in the same week of the prior year.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 2 declined by 500,000 bbl to 7.9 million bbl. Stocks were 200,000 bbl above volumes recorded in the same week of the prior year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 increased by 700,000 bbl to 106.5 million bbl during the profiled week and were 3.8 million bbl above volumes recorded in the corresponding week of the prior year.

On the import side, crude oil imports into the Midwest averaged 1.652 million bpd during reference week, up from 1.569 million bpd the prior week and above 1.505 million bpd reported in the same week of the prior year. Motor gasoline imports averaged 81,000 bpd, up from 64,000 bpd the previous week and above 71,000 bpd recorded in the corresponding week of the prior year. Distillate fuel oil imports averaged 29,000 bpd, down from 36,000 bpd the previous week and below 42,000 bpd reported in the same week of the prior year, while jet fuel imports were unchanged at zero bpd.

The Midwest reported zero jet fuel imports, unchanged on the week and flat compared with the same week of the prior year.

Refinery utilization in the Midwest increased to 94.5% of operable capacity from 92.4% the prior week, reflecting strong processing rates across the region.

Retail gasoline prices in the Midwest increased by 3.8cts to $2.688 gallon in the week ended February 9, while remaining 29.7cts below levels seen during the same period of the prior year, EIA data released Tuesday showed. Midwest diesel prices slid 0.2cts to $3.377 gallon and were 1.6cts below prices from the corresponding period of the prior year.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Rebound After 3-Week Drop

West Coast gasoline inventories rebounded last week from a three-week decline amid a rise as well in crude oil and jet fuel stocks, while distillate balances fell, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released on Wednesday (2/11) showed.

Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region rose by 400,000 bbl to 30.4 million bbl last week, snapping prior declines during the weeks ended January 30th, 23rd and 16th, according to the data within the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Even so, the West Coast gasoline balance was still 1.6 million bbl higher than a year ago.

Gasoline imports in the PADD 5 averaged 76,000 bpd in the reference week, down 16,000 bpd from the prior week, but 66,000 above year-ago levels.

Distillate fuel oil stocks in PADD 5 fell by 100,000 bbl to 11.9 million bbl in the reference week but were up 200,000 bbl compared with the same week of last year.

Crude oil inventories in the West Coast region increased by 1.0 million bbl to 48.1 million bbl on the week while sliding 300,000 bbl from the prior year.

Crude oil imports in PADD 5 averaged 1.096 million bpd in the reference week, registering a weekly decline of 125,000 bpd and a shortfall of 153,000 bpd on the year.

West Coast jet fuel inventories rose by 400,000 bbl to 11.2 million bbl on the week while rising 100,000 bbl on the year.

Jet fuel imports into the region averaged 51,000 bpd in the reference week, down 80,000 bpd from the prior week and 37,000 bpd from the year ago.

Gasoline prices on the West Coast climbed by 11.1cts to $3.938 gallon last week, according to EIA data released Tuesday (2/10). Prices for the same product in the region were 9.3cts lower than last year.

PADD 5 diesel prices slid 0.1cts to $4.376 gallon last week while rising 6.9cts on the year.

EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Record 5th Straight Weekly Draw

U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline inventories declined for a fifth straight week, while distillate and jet fuel stocks rose in the week ended February 6, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday (2/11). 

Motor gasoline inventories in the Gulf Coast region fell by 100,000 bbl to 92.2 million bbl last week, for the fifth consecutive week, but they were 5.3 million below compared to the same week the previous week.

The weekly gasoline stocks drop in PADD 3 was driven by lower refining utilization due to unplanned outages resulting from a winter storm and the start of seasonal maintenance.

Refining utilization in PADD 3 fell to 89.2% from 92.2%, according to EIA data.

Despite lower motor gasoline supplies, the region imported 1,000 bpd of the product in the week ended February 6, down from 34,000 bpd seen the prior week, and 28,000 bpd down from the volume reported in the same week last year. 

PADD 3 crude imports rose by 588,000 bpd to 1.7 million bpd on week and was 593,000 bpd higher than the same week of last year, due in part to increasing imports of Venezuelan crude into the region.

Jet fuel stocks in PADD 3 climbed by 1.3 million bpd to 13.9 million bbl last week and were 200,000 bbl up year-over-year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the same region rose by 600,000 bbl to 50 million bbl during the week profiled, and they were 1.4 million higher than the volume reported in same period of last year, EIA data showed.

As a net exporter of distillates and jet fuel, PADD 3 does not report imports of those products.

The average retail prices for gasoline in the Gulf Coast climbed by 3.2ctsto $2.476 gallon last week but remained below the national average for retail regular gasoline of $2.902gallon, according to EIA data released Tuesday (2/10.

Meanwhile, retail prices for diesel in PADD 3 edged down by 0.2cts on a weekly basis to $3.377 gallon, lower than the $3.688 gallon nationwide average retail price reported last week.

EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Reach 4-Year High Last Week

East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline inventories climbed to their highest level in more than four years last week during the week ended February 6, while distillate stocks declined and jet fuel inventories edged lower as crude oil balances increased , according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (2/11).

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 1 rose by 500,000 bbl to 67.4 million bbl during the reference week. The increase pushed gasoline stocks to their highest level since July 16, 2021, when inventories stood at 67.9 million bbl, EIA data showed. Gasoline inventories for the week in review were also 700,000 bbl above the level reported in the corresponding week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories on the East Coast fell by 2.2 million bbl to 29.1 million bbl on the week, and 900,000 bbl ​from the same week of the prior year.

In contrast, jet fuel inventories in PADD 1 declined by 800,000 bbl to 8.9 million bbl last week. This was 1 million bbl lower than the volume reported year-over-year, keeping annual balances tighter despite the weekly draw.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 1 increased by 700,000 bbl to 7.9 million bbl during the profiled week and were 600,000 bbl lower than volumes recorded in the same week of the prior year.

On the import side, crude oil imports into the East Coast dropped by 23,000 bpd to 530,000 bpd during the reference week and were 34,000 bpd down from the same week last year.

Motor gasoline imports rose by 14,000 bpd to 277,000 bpd and were 15,000 bpd above import volumes recorded in the same week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil imports declined by 46,000 bpd to 134,000 bpd and were 81,000 bpd below levels reported year-over-year.

The East Coast reported zero jet fuel imports, unchanged on the week and 93,000 bpd below the volume seen in the same week of the prior year, EIA data showed.

Retail gasoline prices on the East Coast were unchanged at $2.822 gallon in the week ended February 9, while remaining 22.8cts below levels seen during the same period of the prior year, EIA data released Tuesday showed.

EIA: US Crude Stocks Jump 8.5M Bbl; Distillates Slide

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks surged last week, reversing the tumble recorded in the prior week when production was partially gutted by Winter Storm Fern, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed Wednesday (2/11).

Gasoline balances also rose during the week to February 6 while distillate inventories fell, the EIA said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Commercial crude stocks rose by 8.5 million bbl to 428.8 million, after the previous week’s drop of 3.5 million that came on the back of production outages in the Permian estimated at approximately 2 million bpd by analysts.

The crude build for the profiled week was accompanied by a 1.071 million bbl rise at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures. In the prior week, Cushing inventories saw an 800,000 bbl drop.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million bbl to 259.1 million, adding to the prior week’s rise of 700,000. It marked the 13th straight week of gasoline stock builds in a season where consumption is typically lower versus supply amid winter conditions that reduce driving.

Blending components climbed by 1.4 million bbl to 242.8 million, after a prior weekly addition of 80,000. Conventional gasoline stocks slid by 200,000 bbl to 16.2 million, extending the previous 100,000-bbl decline.

Distillate fuel oil inventories declined by 2.7 million bbl to 124.7 million, after the previous week’s increase of 300,000 bbl.

Refinery utilization slipped to 89.4% of operable capacity, from a prior 90.5%. Crude oil inputs into refineries averaged 16 million bpd, versus the previous week’s 16.03 million.

Crude oil exports averaged 3.74 million bpd, down 310,000 from the previous week, while crude imports rose by 604,000 bpd to 6.81 million.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.827 million bpd, up 2.4% from the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand last week averaged 8.261 million bpd, down 0.7% from the same period last year, while distillate demand averaged 4.1 million bpd, down by 3.2% from the same period last year.

EIA: Brent Seen Down Through 2027 as Supply Beats Demand

Global crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure through 2027 as worldwide production of petroleum and other liquid fuels continues to exceed demand growth, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday (2/11) in analysis of its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude will average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from an estimated $69 per barrel in 2025, before slipping further to $53 per barrel in 2027. The projected decline reflects persistent inventory builds as supply growth outpaces consumption, even amid uncertainty surrounding crude exports from Russia and Venezuela.
Global oil inventories have been rising as OPEC+ members increased production targets and output from non-OPEC+ countries expanded. The EIA expects production growth from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina to add to supply this year and next, while slower growth in global petroleum demand has contributed to a gradual easing in prices since early 2024.
China’s strategic petroleum stockpiling has absorbed a meaningful portion of excess supply, tempering sharper price declines. The EIA estimates that about half of the roughly 2.3 million barrels per day of non-OECD inventory builds in 2025 stemmed from China’s strategic purchases and increased floating storage tied to sanctioned oil flows. China is expected to continue adding about 1.0 million barrels per day to its strategic reserves in both 2026 and 2027.
Those less visible inventory builds, along with obscured trade flows, have helped keep benchmark prices from falling as much as implied inventory growth alone would suggest. Still, commercial crude stocks are also increasing across OECD countries, which accounted for about 44% of global petroleum consumption in 2025. 

As OECD storage capacity fills and marginal storage costs rise, the EIA said market pressures are likely to weigh further on crude prices and slow production growth, reinforcing expectations for lower Brent prices through 2027.

EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Increase 31.3% on Year

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (2/11) total domestic propane/propylene stocks of 77.269 million bbl in the week ending February 6, down 5.447 million bbl week-on-week and 18.411 million bbl, or 31.3% higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.871 million bpd, down 46,000 bpd week-on-week and 212,000 bpd, or 12.8%, higher than in the same week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.777 million bpd, up 242,000 bpd week-on-week and 277,000 bpd, or 18.5% higher than in the same week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.686 million bpd, up 334,000 bpd week-on-week and 77,000 bpd, or 3% higher than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 4.1 million bbl, down 807,000 bbl week-on-week and 829,000 bbl, or 25.3% higher than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 15.702 million bbl, down 1.564 million bbl week-on-week and 1.796 million bbl, or 12.9% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 53.557 million bbl, down 2.821 million bbl week-on-week and 15.449 million bbl, or 40.5% higher than in the same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the week at 3.91 million bbl, down 255,000 bbl week-on-week and 337,000 bbl, or 9.4% higher than in the same week last year.

EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Climbs 2.3% Y-o-Y, Stocks Up

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (2/11) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.11 million bpd, up 154,000 bpd week-on-week and 26,000 bpd, or 2.3% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.075 million bpd was 2,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.053 million bpd, up 151,000 bpd week-on-week and 20,000 bpd, or 1.9% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.019 million bpd was 1,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 841,000 bpd, up 50,000 bpd week-on-week and 9,000 bpd, or 1.1% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blendind demand at 842,000 bpd was 7,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were up 5,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were up 22,000 bpd, up 26,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and down 2,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 25.247 million bbl, up 111,000 bbl week-on-week and 971,000 bbl, or 3.8% lower than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.499 million bbl, up 579,000 bbl week-on-week and 751,000 bbl, or 10% lower than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 10.79 million bbl, down 54,000 bbl week-on-week and 391,000 bbl, or 3.6% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 3.972 million bbl, down 273,000 bbl week-on-week and 729,000 bbl, or 18.4% lower than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.598 million bbl, down 145,000 bbl week-on-week and 40,000 bbl, or 1.5% higher than in the same week last year.

OPEC: 2026 Demand Growth Seen Staying at 1.4M Bpd

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners maintained a 1.4 million bpd growth forecast for world oil demand in 2026 in their monthly report for February released Wednesday (2/11), unchanged from last month.

OPEC’s forecast global production growth of 600,000 bpd was also unchanged from January, the latest monthly report showed.

Combined crude oil production by the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) participants – consisting of 12 OPEC members and 10 allies also known as OPEC+  – fell by 439,000 bpd in January to an average of 42.45 million bpd, the February report stated. The decline was largely driven by production outages and heightened geopolitical developments that impacted major supply routes and physical market fundamentals.

BLS: US Added 130K Jobs in Jan; Jobless Rate at 4.3%

U.S. nonfarm employment rose by 130,000 in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Wednesday (2/11). The unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%, reflecting a labor market that continues to expand at a moderate pace.

The unemployment rate held at 4.3% in January, while the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.4 million. Both measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4% and the number of unemployed totaled 6.9 million.

The January payrolls figure follows downward revisions to the prior two months. November’s jobs growth was revised down to 41,000 from 56,000, while December was revised lower to 48,000 from 50,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 17,000 lower than previously reported.

According to the BLS, the labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.5%, and the employment-population ratio held at 59.8% in January.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15cts, or 0.4%, to $37.17. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 3.7%, BLS said.

Job gains were primarily seen in health care (82,000), social assistance (42,000), and construction (33,000). Within health care, ambulatory health care services added 50,000 jobs, hospitals gained 18,000, and nursing and residential care facilities added 13,000.

Job losses were mainly in federal government (34,000) and financial activities (22,000). Within financial activities, insurance carriers and related activities lost 11,000 jobs over the month.