MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MarketWire Afternoon News for February 4th:

Updated at 5:25 PM ET

HEADLINES:

— SF CARBOB Regular Basis Spikes by 10cts

— AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 5.3% for Week to Jan. 31

— EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Ease From Recent Highs

— EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks in 4th Consecutive Weekly Draw

— EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall 4th Week in Row

— EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Highest Since February 2025

— Analysis: EIA Data Shows Storm Effects on Output, Demand

— EIA: US Crude Down 3.4M Bbl; Refined Products Mixed

— ISM Services Index Stays Unchanged in January at 53.8

— EIA: U.S. Ethanol Production Dips, Stocks 8.9% Down on Year

— EIA: Propane/Propylene Inventories Rise 24.9% Y-o-Y

NEWS:

SF CARBOB Regular Basis Spikes by 10cts

San Francisco gasoline basis spiked Wednesday (2/4) driven by early active trade.
San Francisco CARBOB regular increased by 10cts to a 55cts premium to March NYMEX RBOB futures on the day, setting a 10ct spread against the CARBOB premium in the same market. CARB reformulated gasoline premium in San Francisco rose also 10cts to be assessed at a 78cts premium to March futures. 

Los Angeles CARBOB regular gasoline was assessed at a 36 premium to the March NYMEX RBOB futures contract, based on a trade reported at that level.

Inventories in the U.S. West Coast totaled 30 million bbl in the week ending January 30, 500,000 bbl lower than the prior week and extending a four-week draw from 31.6 million bbl in early January, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 5.3% for Week to Jan. 31

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports that petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,594 during the week ended January 31, down 5.3% from the same week a year ago.

Year-to-date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 43,221, up 3.1% from the corresponding period of the prior year, an AAR report published on Wednesday (2/4) showed.

Weekly traffic for the profiled week was 434,361, down 15.5% from the same week a year ago.

Total carloads for the week ended January 31 reached 191,188, lower by 14% from the same week of last year.

Weekly intermodal volume was 243,173 containers and trailers, down 16.6% from the corresponding week of the prior year.

Year-to-date, U.S. railroads reported carloads at 863,558, up 4.4% on the year.

Cumulative intermodal units were 1,068,353, down 3.5% from a year ago.

Total rail traffic for the first four weeks of the year was 1,931,911 carloads and intermodal units, off by 0.1% on the year.

EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Ease From Recent Highs

Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline and distillate fuel inventories declined in the week ended January 30, while jet fuel stocks rose amid lower refining utilization rates due to a historic winter storm, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (2/4).

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 2 decreased by 1 million bbl to 59 million bbl during the reference week. But they remained elevated and near the highest peak reported since the week ended February 21, 2025, when inventories stood at 60.1 million bbl, EIA data showed. Inventories were also above the 57.1 million bbl reported in the same week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the Midwest decreased by 1.2 million bbl to 30.8 million bbl on the week. Stocks were lower than the 33.4 million bbl year-over-year, reflecting tighter balances amid seasonal demand.

In contrast, jet fuel inventories in PADD 2 increased by 600,000 bbl to 8.4 million bbl last week. This was also higher than the 7.6 million bbl reported in the same week of the prior year, amid ample supplies.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 decreased by 2.2 million bbl to 105.8 million bbl during the profiled week and was also higher than the 103 million bbl seen in the same week last year. Crude oil imports into the Midwest rose by 146,000 bpd to 2.99 million bpd during the reference week and were lower than the 3.14 million bpd reported year over year.

Motor gasoline imports fell by 2,000 bpd to 7,000 bpd and were lower than the 35,000 bpd recorded in the same week of last year.

Distillate fuel oil imports dipped by 27,000 bpd to 30,000 bpd and were lower than the 15,000 bpd reported annually. The Midwest did not report weekly or annual imports of jet fuel for the week ended January 30.

Refinery utilization in PADD 2 saw a steep decline, dropping to 92.4% in the profiled week from 97.4% the prior week.

Retail gasoline prices in the Midwest fell by 4.3cts to $2.650 gallon in the week ended February 2, remaining 26.9cts lower than levels seen during the same week of last year, EIA data showed. Midwest average diesel retail prices increased by 4.6cts to $3.625 gallon and were 5.3cts higher on a weekly basis.

EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks in 4th Consecutive Weekly Draw

U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline inventories declined for a fourth consecutive week during the week ended January 30, as refining production in the region was impacted by a winter storm, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday (2/4).

Distillate and jet fuel stocks also reported a weekly draw in the same week.

Motor gasoline inventories in the Gulf Coast region fell by 100,000 bbl to 93.2 million bbl last week, above the 89.7 million bbl reported in the same week a year earlier.

The region imported 34,000 bpd last week, compared to zero imports the prior week and above the 28,000 bpd seen year-over-year.

Jet fuel stocks in PADD 3 dipped by 1.8 million bbl  to 12.6 million bbl in the week ending January 30, and were 300,000 bbl above the volume reported in the same week from last year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the same region dropped by 1.4 million bbl to 49.4 million bbl on the week, but were up by 10.3 million bbl year-over-year, according to the EIA data.

As a net exporter of distillates and jet fuel, PADD 3 does not report imports of those products.

Refining utilization in PADD 3 rose to 92.2% from 90.5%, despite unplanned refinery shutdowns resulting from a winter storm in the region.

However, PADD 3 gasoline and diesel retail prices were mixed on the week despite limited supplies being reported.

The average retail prices for gasoline in the Gulf Coast dropped by 1.1cts to $2.444 gallon last week but were still below the national average for retail regular gasoline of $2.867 gallon, according to EIA data released Tuesday (2/3).

Meanwhile, retail prices for diesel in PADD 3 climbed by 5.4cts on a weekly basis to $3.379 gallon, the most competitive value nationwide as the U.S. average was $3.681 gallon in the same period.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall 4th Week in Row

U.S. West Coast gasoline inventories fell for a fourth straight week while distillate stocks climbed and jet fuel inventories declined in the week ending January 30, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released Wednesday (2/4) showed.

Motor gasoline inventories in the U.S. West Coast totaled 30 million bbl last week, 500,000 bbl lower than the prior week and extending a four-week draw from 31.6 million bbl in early January, EIA data showed.

Gasoline imports climbed by 48,000 bpd to 91,000 bpd in the reference week and compared with zero imports in the same period last year.

Distillate fuel inventories climbed by 300,000 bbl to 12.0 million bbl week over week, and were 200,000 above the level reported in the same week last year. Distillate imports slid by 6,000 bpd to 1,000 bpd last week and were 11,000 bpd below year-ago levels.

Crude oil inventories climbed by 300,000 bbl to 47.1 million bbl in the reference week, while sliding 1.9 million below the corresponding week of the prior year.

Crude imports increased by 226,000 bpd to 1.221 million bpd but dropped 437,000 bpd from levels reported a year earlier.

Jet fuel inventories fell by 500,000 bbl to 10.8 million bbl last week and were 500,000 bpd below year-ago levels. Jet fuel imports climbed by 62,000 bpd to 131,000 bpd in the reference week and were 14,000 below the corresponding week of last year.

EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Highest Since February 2025

East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline inventories climbed to their highest level in nearly a year last week, while distillate stocks declined and jet fuel inventories increased as crude oil balances edged lower during the week ended January 30, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (2/4).

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 1 rose by 2.5 million bbl to 66.9 million bbl during the reference week. The increase pushed gasoline stocks to their highest levels since the week ended February 21, 2025, when inventories stood at 67 million bbl, EIA data showed. Gasoline inventories for the week in review were also 1.4 million bbl above the 65.5 million bbl reported in the corresponding week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil inventories on the East Coast fell by 3.2 million bbl to 31.3 million bbl on the week. Despite the draw, stocks remained 1.4 million bbl above the 29.9 million bbl reported in the same week of the prior year.

In contrast, jet fuel inventories in PADD 1 increased by 1.1 million bbl to 9.7 million bbl last week. Jet fuel stocks were down 800,000 bbl on the year, keeping annual balances tighter despite the weekly build.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 1 edged lower by 100,000 bbl to 7.2 million bbl during the profiled week and were 1.3 million bbl lower than volumes recorded in the same week of the prior year.

On the import side, crude oil imports into the East Coast increased by 4,000 bpd to 553,000 bpd during the reference week and were below 217,000 bpd below levels reported for the corresponding week of the prior year.

Motor gasoline imports declined by 54,000 bpd to 263,000 bpd and were 267,000 bpd below imports volumes recorded in the same week of the prior year.

Distillate fuel oil imports increased by 14,000 bpd to 262,000 bpd and were 41,000 bpd above levels reported in the corresponding week of the prior year.

The East Coast reported zero jet fuel imports, unchanged on the week and below the 13,000 bpd recorded in the same week of the prior year, EIA data showed.

Retail gasoline prices on the East Coast increased by 2.1cts to $2.822 gallon in the week ended February 2, while remaining 19.7cts below levels seen during the same period of the prior year, EIA data released Monday showed.

East Coast diesel prices also climbed, averaging $3.763 gallon, up 6.9cts on the week, though still 1.5cts below prices from the corresponding period of the prior year.

Analysis: EIA Data Shows Storm Effects on Output, Demand

U.S. crude oil production dropped 480,000 bpd in the week of winter storm Fern, while distillate fuel demand jumped, Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday (2/4).

Freezing temperatures forced shut oil rigs in parts of the country last weekend, with outages lasting several days. Averaged over the week ending January 30, crude oil output in the lower 48 states fell 482,000 bpd to 12.78 million bpd, according to the same data.

Crude refining seems to have been much less affected by comparison. Net crude inputs dropped 180,000 bpd on the week, in line with seasonal norms as refiners are entering maintenance. At just over 16 million bpd, they continued to be unusually high for this time of year, up 4.5% year-on-year.

Weekly data also captured weather-induced demand spikes for diesel and heating oils. Distillate fuel oil inventories fell by 5.6 million bbl, while product supplied, a proxy for demand, jumped 6% from last week to 4.31 million bpd, some 7.8% higher than the four-week average. Heating oil remains an important source of heating in the Northeast of the country, which was hit the hardest by the winter storm.

In fact, while distillate fuel oil stocks dropped nationwide, the decline was most pronounced on the East Coast, where they declined 3.2 million bbl, down 9.3% in just one week. In contrast, regional gasoline inventories jumped by 2.5 million bbl as millions were shut in by snow storms.

While the effects of the winter storm may partially seep into next week’s data release, seasonally typical patterns are still likely to emerge.

Gasoline inventories have already continued to rise longer than usual as refiners ramped up operations to take advantage from high margins. Despite the jump in East Coast inventories, nationwide gasoline stocks were up only 700,000 bbl and are likely close to their seasonal peak as refiners enter maintenance.

EIA: US Crude Down 3.4M Bbl; Refined Products Mixed

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks plummeted last week, declining for a second consecutive week as distillate balances tumbled too while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (2/4).

Commercial crude stocks dropped by 3.5 million bbl to 420.3 million during the week ended January 30, adding to the prior week’s decline of 2.3 million, the EIA said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

U.S. crude inventories were also down 3.5 million bbl on the year, according to the report, which pointed to a 0.8% drop from the same week a year earlier.

The crude inventory decline for the week ended January 30 was in the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern, which led to production outages of approximately 2 million bpd in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, according to analysts.

The draw for the profiled week was accompanied by an 800,000-bbl drop at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures. In the prior week, Cushing inventories saw a 300,000 bbl decline.

Distillate fuel oil inventories tumbled by 5.5 million bbl to 127.4 million, after the previous week’s increase of 300,000 bbl.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 700,000 bbl to 257.9 milllion, adding to the prior week’s rise of 200,000. It marked the 12th straight week of gasoline stock builds in a season where consumption is typically lower versus supply amid winter conditions that reduce driving.

Blending components climbed by 80,000 bbl to 241.1 million, versus the prior drop of 100,000, while conventional gasoline stocks fell by 100,000 bbl to 16.5 million.

Refinery utilization slipped to 90.5% of operable capacity, from a prior 90.9%.  Crude oil inputs into refineries averaged 16 million bpd, versus the previous week’s 16.2 million.

Crude oil exports averaged 4.047 million bpd, down by 542,000 bpd from the previous week, while crude imports rose by 559,000 bpd to 6.201 million bpd.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.802 million bpd, down by 0.9% from the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand last week averaged 8.262 million bpd, remaining essentially flat compared to a year earlier, while distillate demand averaged 4 million bpd, down by 6% from the same period last year.

ISM Services Index Stays Unchanged in January at 53.8

Economic activity in the U.S. services sector expanded for the nineteenth consecutive month in January, according to Institute of Supply Management (ISM) data released Wednesday (2/4). ISM’s services PMI stood at 53.8% in January, unchanged from the prior month and in line with market expectations.

All four subindices remained above the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index rose 2.2 points to 57.4%, while the New Orders Index and the Employment Index registered 3.4 point and 1.4 point month-on-month declines, respectively.

The Prices Index rose 1.5 points to 66.6% in January, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of an above-60 reading. In conjunction with the highest Business Activity and Supplier Deliveries indices since October 2024, “whether pricing increases will stick or expand needs to be closely watched,” said Steve Miller, Chair of ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee. Eleven industries reported growth in January while five reported contraction, unchanged from December.

Regarding survey responses, Miller highlighted that “there was more respondent commentary in January on tariff impacts and uncertainty, potentially the result of annual contract renewals and geopolitical tensions. Gasoline and diesel fuel continued to be cited as commodities down in price”.

EIA: U.S. Ethanol Production Dips, Stocks 8.9% Down on Year

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (2/4) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 956,000 bpd in the week ended January 30, down 158,000 bpd week-on-week and 151,000 bpd, or 13.6% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.119 million bpd was 26,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 902,000 bpd, down 153,000 bpd week-on-week and 143,000 bpd, or 13.7% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.062 million bpd was 31,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 791,000 bpd, down 92,000 bpd week-on-week and 129,000 bpd, or 14% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 875,000 bpd was 12,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 25,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were down 34,000 bpd, down 32,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and down 1,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 25.136 million bbl, down 264,000 bbl week-on-week and 2.062 million bbl, or 8.9% higher than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.92 million bbl, down 256,000 bbl week-on-week and 149,000 bbl, or 2.2% higher than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 10.844 million bbl, down 15,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.745 million bbl, or 19.2% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 4.245 million bbl, down 339,000 bbl week-on-week and 55,000 bbl, or 1.3% lower than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.743 million bbl, up 342,000 bbl week-on-week and 219,000 bbl, or 8.7% higher than in the same week last year.

Following the data release, the dollar continued to edge higher, up 0.169 points to 97.470 against a basket of foreign currencies. Crude oil and product futures remained unchanged, with front-month NYMEX WTI futures up $0.23 on the day to $63.44 bbl.

EIA: Propane/Propylene Inventories Rise 24.9% Y-o-Y

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (2/4) total domestic propane/propylene stocks of 82.716 million bbl in the week ending January 30, down 6.236 million bbl week-on-week and 16.467 million bbl, or 24.9% higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.917 million bpd, down 178,000 bpd week-on-week and 89,000 bpd, or 4.9%, higher than in the same week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.535 million bpd, up 35,000 bpd week-on-week and 443,000 bpd, or 22.4% lower than in the same week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.352 million bpd, down 418,000 bpd week-on-week and 153,000 bpd, or 6.1% lower than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 4.907 million bbl, down 622,000 bbl week-on-week and 406,000 bbl, or 9% higher than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 17.266 million bbl, down 2.244 million bbl week-on-week and 1.108 million bbl, or 6.9% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 56.378 million bbl, down 3.255 million bbl week-on-week and 14.887 million bbl, or 35.9% higher than in the same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the week at 4.165 million bbl, down 115,000 bbl week-on-week and 67,000 bbl, or 1.6% higher than in the same week last year.