MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for January 30th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— Midwest Fuel Discounts Deepen in January Despite Cold

— SF CARBOB Regular Basis Jumps on Wilmington Flaring Events

— Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Up by 3 on Week

— BTS: Nov N. American Freight DN 4.7% on Year to $124.8B

— Exxon 2025 Q4 Earnings Dip to $6.5B on Weaker Crude Prices

— BLS: US PPI Rises 0.5% in December on Higher Services Prices

— Chevron Q4 Earnings Down 13% Y-on-Y on Lower Crude Prices

— Trump: Former Fed Governor Warsh to be Next Fed Chair

NEWS:

Midwest Fuel Discounts Deepen in January Despite Cold

Midwest distillate and gasoline markets traded at deep discounts to front-month NYMEX futures in January, as ample inventories helped offset refinery disruptions and spikes in heating demand caused by freezing weather across the region.

According to DTN data, Chicago ULSD posted the widest average discount among Midwest products during January, trading at an average 31cts discount to front-month NYMEX ULSD, or 3cts wider than the January 2025 discount.

Group 3 ULSD followed, averaging a 28cts discount, which was 8cts wider than a year earlier.

While Chicago ULSD posted the largest absolute discount, Group 3 differentials weakened through January from softer downstream demand and ample supply that pressured prices. Chicago, in contrast, benefitted as the Midwest benchmark, with steadier demand and more distribution outlets.

Among other products, Chicago jet fuel averaged a 27cts discount, wider by 2cts on the year. The discount on Group 3 jet fuel averaged a 23cts, narrower by 7cts.

In Midwest gasoline, Group 3 suboctane gasoline (V) averaged an 18cts discount to front-month NYMEX RBOB, while Chicago CBOB averaged a 19cts discount – widening by 14cts and 11cts, respectively.

Supplies remained sufficient even with disruptions reported at ExxonMobil’s 275,000-bpd Joliet refinery in Channahon and Citgo’s 183,000-bpd Lemont refinery.

Midwest gasoline inventories stood at 60 million bbl into the third week of January, 3.9 million bbl above the same period of last year, while jet fuel stocks rose 400,000 bbl to 7.8 million bbl. While distillate balances fell 2.6 million bbl to 32 million bbl in the same period, stocks were still considered elevated, limiting price support.

Higher inventory trends and seasonally lower winter demand are expected to persist into February, keeping a lid on prices though major refinery outages and cold weather could change this.

SF CARBOB Regular Basis Jumps on Wilmington Flaring Events

San Francisco reformulated gasoline basis strengthened Friday (1/30) extending gains from the prior session, driven by ongoing refinery flares and hiccups at Phillips 66’s 139,000 bpd Wilmington, California refinery.

Prompt San Francisco CARBOB regular basis traded at a 45cts premium to March NYMEX RBOB futures, up 10cts from Thursday’s last reported trade. The increase in regular grade basis lifted premium values in tandem, with San Francisco CARBOB premium rising to a 68cts premium to March NYMEX RBOB futures.

Phillips 66 reported an ongoing flaring event at Wilmington on Thursday (1/15) which is expected to continue through Sunday (2/1), according to a filing with the South Coast Air Quality Management District.
Despite plans to close the Wilmington refinery by the end of 2025,  Phillips 66 continues to report flaring events at the facility, according to SCAQMD filings.

Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Up by 3 on Week

North American drilling activity rose by three rigs this week, adding to last week’s 28-rig climb, Baker Hughes’ latest rig count report released Friday (1/24) showed.

The combined North American rig count stood at 778 as of Jan. 24, up from 775 rigs the prior week. Year-over-year, the combined total was down by 39 rigs from 817 active rigs a year ago.

Canada’s rig count rose by one week-over-week to 232. The U.S. rig count rose by two to 546, bringing the combined North American total to 778.

By location, land-based rigs in the U.S. rose by two week-over-week to 528. Offshore rigs were unchanged at 18. Inland water rigs were also unchanged at zero.

By energy source, oil-directed rigs in the U.S. dipped by one to 411. Gas-directed rigs rose by four to 125. Miscellaneous rigs, a category that includes rigs drilling injection wells, fell by one to 10.

By trajectory, horizontal rigs in the U.S. rose by two to 478. Vertical rigs were unchanged at 15, and directional rigs were also unchanged at 53. Year-over-year, the U.S. rig count was lower by 28 rigs from 574 active rigs a year ago.

BTS: Nov N. American Freight DN 4.7% on Year to $124.8B

The value of North American transborder freight fell by 4.7% year-on-year in November to an estimated $124.8 billion, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) said Friday.

U.S.-Canada cargo led the decline by sliding 13.1% to $53.7 billion, while goods moved between the United States and Mexico rose 2.9% in value to $71.1 billion.

By mode of transport, trucks moved an estimated $83.7 billion of freight, marking a 1.4% increase from a year ago. Vessels transported $8.2 billion of freight, which was down 15.3%, and railways fell 11.9% to $14.3 billion.

Pipelines fell 10.4% to $7.1 billion, while air freight moved an estimated $5 billion of goods for a 3.7% decrease.

Detroit, Port Huron, and Buffalo led for U.S. truck freight bound for Canada while Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa remained the top gateways for U.S. freight flows with Mexico.

In rail freight, Detroit, Port Huron and International Falls were the top U.S. connection points with Canada, while Laredo, Eagle Pass and El Paso were the main U.S. rail links with Mexico.

For U.S. energy flows with Canada, the top pipeline regions were Chicago, Port Huron and Minneapolis. The primary U.S. pipeline connections with Mexico were El Paso, Hidalgo, and Laredo.

For water-borne cargo, the busiest northern ports serving energy flows between the U.S. and Canada were Boston, Arthur and Portland. The top southern connections for energy flows were Houston, Port Arthur, and Texas City.

Exxon 2025 Q4 Earnings Dip to $6.5B on Weaker Crude Prices

ExxonMobil reported on Friday (01/30) a lower fourth-quarter net profit of $6.5 billion due to weaker crude oil prices, although record-breaking production volumes in Guyana and the Permian Basin helped offset the softer market.

The latest quarterly result represents a decrease from the $7.55 billion reported in the third quarter and the $7.63 billion earned during the same period in 2024. For the full year of 2025, the oil major recorded total earnings of $28.8 billion, down from the $33.7 billion achieved during the previous year.

Chairman and CEO Darren Woods stated that the company was fundamentally stronger, “capturing more value from every barrel and molecule we produce” through a long runway of growth. Annual upstream production reached 4.7 million bpd, marking the highest output level for the company in more than 40 years.

Production in the Permian Basin hit a record 1.6 million bpd, while output in Guyana surpassed 700,000 barrels per day to set another annual high.

BLS: US PPI Rises 0.5% in December on Higher Services Prices

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.5% in December, following a 0.2% increase in November and 0.1% in October. the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday (1/30). On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 3% year-on-year.

The December increase was led by a 0.7% rise in prices for final demand services. Two thirds of that increase can be traced to a jump in margins for final demand trade services, BLS said. The index for final demand goods prices, in contrast, remained unchanged.

Market consensus expected a 0.2% increase in December, but a 1.7% month-on-month jump in trade costs and a 0.4% rise in core producer prices – final demand excluding food, energy and trade – more than outweighed the 1.4% drop in energy prices.

The core index for final demand rose 0.4% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Over the past 12 months, this core measure has increased 3.5% on an unadjusted basis.

Chevron Q4 Earnings Down 13% Y-on-Y on Lower Crude Prices

Chevron reported on Friday (1/30) fourth quarter earnings of $2.8 billion, down 13% from the $3.2 billion of a year ago, as lower crude prices impacted overall financial results.

Sales and other operating revenues in the fourth quarter were $45.79 billion, down from $48.33 billion in the year-ago period due primarily to lower crude prices.

U.S. upstream earnings totaled $3.04 billion versus $4.3 billion last year, primarily on lower realizations partially offset by higher production volumes from the Hess acquisition.

U.S. net oil-equivalent production reached record levels of 4.05 million bpd during the quarter, up 21% from the fourth quarter of 2024 due to growth in the Permian Basin.

Chevron’s fourth quarter U.S. downstream earnings at $823 million were significantly higher than the $248 million loss in the year-ago quarter, mostly due to higher margins.

Refinery crude oil inputs were influenced by increased capacity at the Pasadena refinery, while the company achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost reductions during the year.

Trump: Former Fed Governor Warsh to be Next Fed Chair

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday (1/31) that he has picked former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social media platform.

Warsh — a visiting economics fellow at the Hoover Institution and lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business — succeeds incumbent Fed chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

He served as Fed governor under President George W. Bush between 2006 until 2011. 

Warsh comes to the Fed at a particularly challenging time for the central bank, which has had to navigate between a soft labor market and higher-than-preferred inflation in deciding interest rates. In its most recent decision on Wednesday (1/28), the Fed left rates unchanged in a range of between 3.5% and 3.75%.